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Armageddon
Fission
Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 2835
Location: St.Louis, Mo
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 Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2007 8:50 pm Post subject: Re: Another record |
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| AirlinePilot wrote: | Volatility surrounding the peak.
Thats all folks.
Traders who think in terms of making money from minute to minute, hour to hour and only occasionally looking outside of a 24 hour window. To them a week is an eternity and thinking that far ahead loses them and their funds/financiers dollars.
This is not surprising to me at all. Long term fundamentals is where it's at. We all know how that picture looks. The Saudi's make some obscure comment and the markets percieve some tiny move to the upside with supply and there you go, a plummeting crude price.
It wont last. It can't.
Only one thing will make a difference. That will be the proof that Saudi production actually increases over the next few quarters. I wait patiently for the fate of mankind to unfold before our eyes. |
Maybe another staged terror attack so the US can "liberate' Iran ? |
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IrrationalExuberanceMonky
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jul 20, 2007
Posts: 107
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| Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2007 8:58 pm Post subject: Re: Another record |
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| Armageddon wrote: | | AirlinePilot wrote: | Volatility surrounding the peak.
Thats all folks.
Traders who think in terms of making money from minute to minute, hour to hour and only occasionally looking outside of a 24 hour window. To them a week is an eternity and thinking that far ahead loses them and their funds/financiers dollars.
This is not surprising to me at all. Long term fundamentals is where it's at. We all know how that picture looks. The Saudi's make some obscure comment and the markets percieve some tiny move to the upside with supply and there you go, a plummeting crude price.
It wont last. It can't.
Only one thing will make a difference. That will be the proof that Saudi production actually increases over the next few quarters. I wait patiently for the fate of mankind to unfold before our eyes. |
Maybe another staged terror attack so the US can "liberate' Iran ? |
Vey vey intevesting!  I shall ask my Jew friend if their is any truth in that, I hear he is close to the Cheney and our Jewish overlord masters so he vud kno above untermenshen like us! |
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IrrationalExuberanceMonky
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jul 20, 2007
Posts: 107
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| Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2007 9:01 pm Post subject: Re: Another record |
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| DantesPeak wrote: | | IrrationalExuberanceMonky wrote: | | DantesPeak wrote: | | pstarr wrote: | | It's the end of the summer driving season |
Gasoline demand usually peaks more often than not just before Labor Day in early September, which is also about the same time of peak hurricane activity. Not surprisingly, the years that gasoline demand doesn't peak about then is because of hurricanes.
Most likely today's drop was connected with panic futures liquidation, and not market fundementals. Ironically lower prices should increase oil demand. Demand had been been running about 1.5% over last year, and may now increase to about 2% over last year. |
The funds holding huge long positions have to unload them as orderly as they can to minimize moving the markets (preferably selling into strength), this takes time which is why the selloff came earlier than last year and still well into 'driving season' IMO. They learnt their lesson from last year and jumped the gun this year.  |
Last year world crude inventories were growing in the second and third quarters. PIW says inventories grew only slightly in the second quarter, and inventories may be declining in the third - based upon available information (US crude stocks are down the last four weeks).
Although seasonal factors are important, I wouldn't bet on them repeating the same way every year. |
I don't believe the big funds trade on fundamentals alone (if at all). |
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Zardoz
Expert
Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6283
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
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| Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2007 7:39 am Post subject: Re: Another record |
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Everything's down, big time, including crude oil:
Oil Drops as Investors Sell to Cover Equity Losses
| Quote: | Crude oil futures fell as investors sold to cover losses in equity markets and forecasters altered the track of an Atlantic hurricane away from Gulf of Mexico platforms.
European stocks plunged, equity indexes in Asia fell the most in a year and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped to a five- month low on concern U.S. credit losses would mount. Hurricane Dean, the first Atlantic hurricane of the season, shifted toward Jamaica and Mexico, south of the U.S. oil infrastructure.
"The main reason is because of the crisis in international financial markets,'' said Wolfgang Kraus, chief energy and commodities trader at BayernLB in Munich. "Liquidity between banks is a rare commodity right now, and many speculative investors have been forced to close out positions.''
Crude oil for September delivery fell as much as $1.60, or 2.2 percent, to $71.73 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $72.07 at 10:39 a.m. London time. U.S. oil prices have fallen 7.6 percent since reaching a record $78.77 on Aug. 1. |
_________________
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen |
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Zardoz
Expert
Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6283
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
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| Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2007 12:17 pm Post subject: Re: Another record |
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Now, that's what I call a "dip":
_________________
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen |
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AirlinePilot
Moderator
Joined: Apr 05, 2005
Posts: 2357
Location: South of Atlanta
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| Posted: Thu Aug 16, 2007 4:45 pm Post subject: Re: Another record |
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Hedge funds selling for profit to cover losses???? Hmmmmm.
Friday is going to be an interesting day to watch. I'm thinking tommorow may be the really big hit of the last two weeks. At some point a major player, be it bank or hedge fund is going to implode, than watch the fun!!!
My mantra now is more ammo, before its all gone.  |
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IrrationalExuberanceMonky
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jul 20, 2007
Posts: 107
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| Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 5:36 pm Post subject: Re: Another record |
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| AirlinePilot wrote: | Hedge funds selling for profit to cover losses???? Hmmmmm.
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It's a part of it but still overstated, we go down to 63 IMO, which I stated a while back. 63 is a buy for sure, on the futures, OSX, etc.
Please ignore my recommendations though, only trade/invest with a plan! |
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IrrationalExuberanceMonky
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jul 20, 2007
Posts: 107
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| Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 5:41 pm Post subject: Re: Another record |
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| IrrationalExuberanceMonky wrote: |
IMO the top is in...
Top is most likely in IMO. Peak oil and uberdoom will not happen this year. |
Called the top again! WooHoo! Stocks, CL you got it I call it!  |
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Zardoz
Expert
Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6283
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
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| Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:01 pm Post subject: Re: Another record |
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THUD!!!
Crude Oil Falls Below $70 as Hurricane Dean Weakens Over Mexico
How low can we go?
_________________
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen |
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threadbear
Expert
Joined: Jan 22, 2005
Posts: 7110
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| Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:35 pm Post subject: Re: Another record |
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| The markets are factoring in demand destruction in a looming recessionary/depressionary environment. Also, very little about war expanding into Iran. |
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eastbay
Moderator
Joined: Dec 18, 2004
Posts: 4095
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
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| Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:43 pm Post subject: Re: Another record |
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Have patience.
There won't be enough demand destruction in this market adjustment to offset coming scarcities caused by constant oil field depletion. The market will also factor this in as the months tick by and will be reflected in general increases in energy prices.
The general price trend is upward because all the inexpensive low-hanging fruit is about gone.
_________________
Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha |
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threadbear
Expert
Joined: Jan 22, 2005
Posts: 7110
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| Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:48 pm Post subject: Re: Another record |
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redundant
Last edited by threadbear on Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:50 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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threadbear
Expert
Joined: Jan 22, 2005
Posts: 7110
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| Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:49 pm Post subject: Re: Another record |
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| eastbay wrote: | Have patience.
There won't be enough demand destruction in this market adjustment to offset coming scarcities caused by constant oil field depletion. The market will also factor this in as the months tick by and will be reflected in general increases in energy prices.
The general price trend is upward because all the inexpensive low-hanging fruit is about gone. |
Demand could easily drop by 50%, in the US alone. Factor in alternatives, and the only thing to prevent oil per barrel plummeting in dollars will be the dollar plummeting in a synchronized fashion.
Different scenario if the rest of the world doesn't experience some slow down, as well. |
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AirlinePilot
Moderator
Joined: Apr 05, 2005
Posts: 2357
Location: South of Atlanta
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| Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 3:41 pm Post subject: Re: Another record |
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| threadbear wrote: | Demand could easily drop by 50%, in the US alone. Factor in alternatives, and the only thing to prevent oil per barrel plummeting in dollars will be the dollar plummeting in a synchronized fashion.
Different scenario if the rest of the world doesn't experience some slow down, as well. |
I'm curious what scenario you think demand could drop by 50% threadbear. Please elaborate. |
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Revi
Fusion
Joined: Apr 25, 2005
Posts: 3098
Location: Maine
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| Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 5:27 pm Post subject: Re: Another record |
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| Demand could drop by 50% if a lot of people quit heating their houses because they are broke, quit flying because they no longer have a job and quit trying to fill up their cars because the bank has reposessed them. That's called demand destruction, and it ain't pretty, but it gets the job done. |
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