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Armageddon
Fusion
Fusion


Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 3030
Location: St.Louis, Mo

PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2006 11:37 am    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Here's my take for what it's worth. The powers that be ( not sure who they are ) know that 70.00 - 75.00 oil is about the most they can charge before the economies will suffer and demand destruction really takes place. Whenever there is a run up , somehow it miraculously stops, and comes back down. Something is causing the run up to hault. I guess it's similar to the PPT in the stock market. ( ppt is a group of the wealthiest people who throw money in the market when selloffs start, and it keeps it from collapsing ) They are making hundreds of billions and want to see this continue, so they will artificially keep prices here for a while yet and long as they can.
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Zardoz
Expert
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Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6448
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia

PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2006 11:42 am    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

armegeddon wrote:
Here's my take for what it's worth...They are making hundreds of billions and want to see this continue, so they will artificially keep prices here for a while yet and as long as they can.

That's as good an explanation as any I've seen.
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"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Armageddon
Fusion
Fusion


Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 3030
Location: St.Louis, Mo

PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:54 pm    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Zardoz wrote:
armegeddon wrote:
Here's my take for what it's worth...They are making hundreds of billions and want to see this continue, so they will artificially keep prices here for a while yet and as long as they can.

That's as good an explanation as any I've seen.


===================================

There has to be a reason why the runups stop, and this seems only logical. They arent dummies.
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AirlinePilot
Moderator
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Joined: Apr 05, 2005
Posts: 2477
Location: South of Atlanta

PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2006 8:59 pm    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I think it's actually quite simple. The runups stop because mankind is inherently greedy. Large amonts of dollars are made and moved with small movements in price. It doesnt matter rght now what the price may go to, as long as one knows it may go up a few bucks in the near term. Really big hedge funds and players wait it out for a few dollar run up and then BANG, they sell and the price comes back a bit. All the while we are drugged into thinking its no big deal, its business as usual. Nothing to see here, move along please.

Two steps forward, one step back, until finally we take the last step over the cliff which we cannot see as we climb with our heads down up the steep slope.

All the while we march forward as the ultimate commodity continues its slow slide down the backside of Hubbert's peak. Many will get rich, but probably only for a short while. Once we pass the point of pain, the point of imminent collapse, it won't matter anymore. All the alternatives you and I can come up with won't make but a small dent in man's thirst for the carbon cocktail called oil. We will slide into depression and chaos as a planet. God help us all.

I hope for a few more good years in which to enjoy this beautiful blue marble and the wonders it holds.
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Novus
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Jun 21, 2005
Posts: 1705

PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2006 9:31 am    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

In Inflation adjusted terms oil may never go above $80. I think it has to do with the complex nature of economic EROEI. When oil was $25 there was so much talk about alternatives becoming economically viable if oil would stay above $30. When oil traded in the $30s the alternatives went to $50 and when oil $50 the alternatives went to $80. Here we are at almost $80 and still no viable alternatives. Now we have reached the point where the economy cannot sustain higher oil so that means no alternatives ever. We are simply headed for total economic collapse. It is so clearly writen on the wall even an economist could see it. "We are doomed."
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manu
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Jul 26, 2006
Posts: 753

PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2006 6:14 am    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Novas, we are not doomed, just the way most people are living is. The bad part is the greedy people will take alot of people with them when they go.
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Armageddon
Fusion
Fusion


Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 3030
Location: St.Louis, Mo

PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2006 1:37 pm    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

manu wrote:
Novas, we are not doomed, just the way most people are living is. The bad part is the greedy people will take alot of people with them when they go.


explain how we are going to feed 6.5 billion people with the price of energy skyrocketing ? This entire system we have created is based on cheap and abundant energy. And guess what ? We no longer have that. We are doomed
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Revi
Fusion
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Joined: Apr 25, 2005
Posts: 3276
Location: Maine

PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:20 am    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

We are not all doomed. Humans are a very resilient species. We lived off of sunlight for a million years. Some of us still do. We just have to drop back to that. The United States may not do so well, but humans as a species will start growing gardens again, put solar panels on the roof, cut wood and stop commuting 50 miles a day. It'll be painful, but not the end of the world. There will be a lot of stupid wars, but what's new?
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Fergus
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude


Joined: Jun 13, 2006
Posts: 409

PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:24 am    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Revi wrote:
We are not all doomed. Humans are a very resilient species. We lived off of sunlight for a million years. Some of us still do. We just have to drop back to that. The United States may not do so well, but humans as a species will start growing gardens again, put solar panels on the roof, cut wood and stop commuting 50 miles a day. It'll be painful, but not the end of the world. There will be a lot of stupid wars, but what's new?


So the answer is to de-evolve into single cell organizisms? No thanks. I'll take my chances with the mobs as a Human. Give me some sorta life or give me death. But floating around some pond as scum does not seem like much of a life.
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azreal60
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Joined: Jun 26, 2004
Posts: 1189
Location: Madison,Wisconsin

PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:56 am    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Guys, please stay on topic. This post is not for debating peak oil but rather simply talking about the current price of oil. Take that debate elsewhere.
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firestarter
Light Sweet Crude
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Joined: Mar 19, 2006
Posts: 1114

PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:37 pm    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

$74.45 from an earlier dip below $73.

If we don't get a hurricane, and the ME situation fails to escalate, by the end of the month (Aug) it's possible the year over year spread in crude's price could be less than a couple bucks. Imagine how that'll be reported!
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Zardoz
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Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6448
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia

PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:51 pm    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

PWALPOCO wrote:
I think looking at the charts, then the analysis by Clive Maund (321energy) would appear "logical". Hes saying there appears to be two layers of support for the oil price , once at about $73 and another at about $62.

With the oil having peaked then gradually slipping to the first support point hes of the opinion that the price will go through that down to the next layer. Looking at the past behaviour that doesnt look an unreasonable prediction particularly as $62 still sits well above the fabled 200dma.

However , PO may cause things to behave in ways our analyst will not have contemplated !!

Paul


Let's keep an eye on things for the next couple of weeks with the predictions of Mister ChartSmarty in mind. His bit about $73 was a really easy call to make because that appears to be the new "floor" at the moment, but the $62 stuff is a hell of a stretch.

Let's see if he deserves the big bucks he undoubtedly gets.
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"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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cheaplaughs2
Tar Sands
Tar Sands


Joined: Dec 13, 2005
Posts: 39

PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:12 am    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

So where are we headed now tropical storm chris has just
formed; IRAN has just rejected the UN; and the war in lebanon
seem's to be heating up with SYRIA getting its troop's prepared.And
my guess is CHAVEZ wont stay quiet on the cuban situation.
Is this the'' perfect storm''just like to here some opinon's.
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Zardoz
Expert
Expert


Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6448
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia

PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:20 am    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

cheaplaughs2 wrote:
So where are we headed now...?

Well, ol' Clive's prediction of the bottom falling out is not lookin' too good at the moment:



Wholesale gasoline is really taking off.
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"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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cheaplaughs2
Tar Sands
Tar Sands


Joined: Dec 13, 2005
Posts: 39

PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:38 am    Post subject: Re: Another record Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I saw the new's about SYRIA on cnn late last night I will try
and find the link.I believe it was a statement read buy there
president who's name is slipping my mind right now so forgive me.
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