We cannot drill our way out of this oil crisis. Since 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.
Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.
We are going to have to import more of our oil. Period.
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 6:19 pm Post subject: Re: Another record
Revi wrote:
Demand could drop by 50% if a lot of people quit heating their houses because they are broke, quit flying because they no longer have a job and quit trying to fill up their cars because the bank has reposessed them. That's called demand destruction, and it ain't pretty, but it gets the job done.
Gone are the days of business meetings that require "face time" pulling people from all over the globe.
And what if half the population of LA, bought mopeds or bicycled and ditched their cars, out of necessity, and many of the rest, hitchhiked?
What if people ate beans and rice instead of beef?
It's our way of life that isn't sustainable, not our very being. That can and will change, and what's better, if people try their level best to keep a humane perspective, eventually we'll be better off for it.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 3584 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 7:22 pm Post subject: Re: Another record
I'm fully confident we'll figure out a way to burn the rest of the oil as fast as possible threadbear. At the current burn rate it's only a few more decades. That's around 80 mb/d. Anticipated demand in 2020 is somewhere around 120 mb/d. If it remains at 80 mb/d that's about a 50% reduction from anticipated demand which still maintains the current burn rate. It also maintains the fact that there's only a few decades more. This will absolutely positively guarantee higher and higher prices. A 50% demand destruction won't have a significant impact on our common situation or, shorter term, a serious impact on current price growth.
Every 12 or 13 days we burn a billion barrels leaving a billion fewer to bid over. Consider that prices in the upper $60's are now interestingly considered a bear oil market. Who would have thought that even six months ago? _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 7:33 pm Post subject: Re: Another record
How in God's name are you going to keep corporations from going green and exploiting the idea of peak for all it's worth, so they can make a fortune developing alternatives, once other sources of revenue start drying up?
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3277 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2007 5:34 am Post subject: Re: Another record
threadbear wrote:
How in God's name are you going to keep corporations from going green and exploiting the idea of peak for all it's worth, so they can make a fortune developing alternatives, once other sources of revenue start drying up?
Your not.
No really, I mean it! Short of Mad Max and zombie hoards that is what will happen. _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Crude oil rose above $73 a barrel in New York to a three-week high after an Energy Department report showed U.S. oil and gasoline inventories fell more than expected.
Crude-oil stockpiles fell 3.49 million barrels to 333.6 million in the week ended Aug. 24, the report showed. A 600,000 barrel drop was forecast, according to the median of responses by 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Prices have fallen 6 percent this month on concern that fuel demand will decline as a credit crunch in the U.S. slows economic growth.
"It would be hard to paint this report as anything other than bullish,'' said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. "The crude- oil decline was much bigger than expected and the gasoline drop was substantial. The market should continue to tighten in the last few weeks of the gasoline season.''
_________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Crude oil rose close to a four-week high on concern a developing storm in the Atlantic Ocean may intensify and threaten rigs and pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico.
A weather system east of the Windward Islands, is "well organized'' and may become the sixth tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season later today, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said on its Web site. Oil prices surged after hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated Gulf of Mexico oil platforms and pipelines in 2005.
The weather disturbance "has the potential of turning into a hurricane in a few more days,'' said Paul Tossetti, director of oil market analysis at PFC Energy in Washington. "Memories of Rita and Katrina are still pretty fresh in peoples' minds.''
_________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5069 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2007 10:01 am Post subject: Re: Another record
Zardoz wrote:
They're way early to worry about this, especially when almost all the models see this storm going into Central America.
A small diversion would send it over Cantarell a second time.
I think oil prices would be even higher but US demand has been reduced by a new outburst of refining problems that started on August 16. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Crude oil rose to a one-month high on speculation that an Energy Department report tomorrow will show U.S. oil and gasoline inventories declined.
Gasoline supplies fell 1.3 million barrels last week, the fifth straight decline, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Crude-oil stockpiles dropped for the eighth time in nine weeks, the survey showed. Libya, Algeria, Qatar, Iran and Venezuela have called for OPEC to maintain its production quotas.
_________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Crude oil rose to a five-week high after an Energy Department report showed that U.S. oil and gasoline inventories declined more than expected last week.
Crude-oil stockpiles dropped for the eighth time in nine weeks, the report showed. Gasoline supplies fell 1.5 million barrels. OPEC meets in Vienna next week to review output targets.
Crude oil for October delivery rose $1.14, or 1.5 percent, to $76.87 a barrel at 10:35 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $77.43, the highest intraday price since Aug. 3. Prices are up 14 percent from a year ago.
_________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Supposedly Syria fired on these Israeli planes on a recon mission:
Quote:
"It appears that the Israeli planes were on a reconnaissance mission when they got caught by Syrian defenses and were forced to drop their bombs and extra fuel tanks," said a Western diplomat in Syria's capital Damascus. He declined to be named.
_________________ The very existence of flamethrowers proves that some time, somewhere, someone said to themselves, "You know, I want to set those people over there on fire, but I'm just not close enough to get the job done." - George Carlin
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6149 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Thu Sep 06, 2007 3:15 pm Post subject: Re: Another record
BTW, what's up with pages 78 and 79 of this thread? They don't seem to actually exist. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Thu Sep 06, 2007 4:13 pm Post subject: Re: Another record
Zardoz wrote:
BTW, what's up with pages 78 and 79 of this thread? They don't seem to actually exist.
Some posts must have been deleted. phpBB has a bug, when a post is added to a thread, a counter is incremented and a new page created if necessary. But if posts are deleted, the newly-superfluous page(s) remains. If you click on the page number, you get an error message as the page is blank. I think this sorts itself out naturally as people make more posts and the thread fills up to cover the phantom pages.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5069 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Sep 06, 2007 4:36 pm Post subject: Re: Another record
Twilight wrote:
Zardoz wrote:
BTW, what's up with pages 78 and 79 of this thread? They don't seem to actually exist.
Some posts must have been deleted. phpBB has a bug, when a post is added to a thread, a counter is incremented and a new page created if necessary. But if posts are deleted, the newly-superfluous page(s) remains. If you click on the page number, you get an error message as the page is blank. I think this sorts itself out naturally as people make more posts and the thread fills up to cover the phantom pages.
Thanks for the explanation, but should we actually reach new records, not many are going to figure out they should start off on page 77.
edit: page 78 - we're making progress _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Last edited by DantesPeak on Thu Sep 06, 2007 5:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
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