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tmazanec1
Heavy Crude
Joined: Oct 12, 2004
Posts: 424
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 Posted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 10:55 am Post subject: Monthly Saudi Production |
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Hope I'm putting this in the right forum! 
Mark Sevarin (sp?) in his new book, says that July production of Saudi oil declined, even though you would think they are producing full out. Anywhere I can get the monthly figures to follow this and see if they might be "peaking"? |
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Keith_McClary
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jul 21, 2004
Posts: 1282
Location: Suburban tar sands
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| Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2004 12:24 am Post subject: Re: Monthly Saudi Production |
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| tmazanec1 wrote: | Hope I'm putting this in the right forum!
Mark Sevarin (sp?) in his new book, says that July production of Saudi oil declined, even though you would think they are producing full out. Anywhere I can get the monthly figures to follow this and see if they might be "peaking"? |
Did you see the "Nemesis Report" on page 10 (second last page) of the ASPO Newsletter October 2004
http://peakoil.net/Newsletter/NL46/newsletter46.pdf
I would post it here but my PDF reader doen't let me cut-'n'-paste. |
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chris-h
Heavy Crude
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Joined: Oct 11, 2004
Posts: 447
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| Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2004 4:01 am Post subject: |
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Did you try to copy paste by selecting and then rightclicking and selecting copy to clipboard ?
| Quote: | 435 The Nemesis Report Our anonymous contributor from the heart of the oil industry returns with devastating insight ASPO has undoubtedly done great work in showing the way that the so-called quota wars have led to vast exaggeration of Middle East OPEC reserves. I calculate that for Saudi Arabia, we have now reached the point where its production peak can be predicted with some confidence. It is by the end of 2004. Clearly I need to justify such a devastating prediction. On both the Aramco website and in the August issue of the IEA Monthly Report is the suggestion that Saudi Arabia needs 600-800 kb/d of additional capacity to maintain its production. Note that the word Depletion can never be used. Prior to the start-up of the Qatif and Abu Sa’fah fields in July, Saudi production had been running flat out at 9.2 million b/d. (You can believe in the legendary Saudi 1.0 - 1.5 Mb/d of spare or reserve capacity if you wish. It really doesn’t alter the argument). Saudi production is already declining by at least 600 kb/d each year, or around 50 kb/d each month. The newly started up Qatif and Abu Sa’fah fields are claimed to be adding 650 kb/d of capacity (800 kb/d in total minus the 150 kb/d that Abu Sa’fah had been producing). ] It is claimed that these two fields will reach full capacity by October. Let’s be more generous and look at end-December 2004. July’s 9.2 Mb/d capacity will have been eroded by six months of decline, roughly 300 kb/d, but augmented by the new capacity ofr some 650 kb/d. So in the last quarter of 2004 Saudi capacity will peak at 9.5-9.6 Mb/d. A year later with no new capacity added it will be down to 9 Mb/d. The next capacity increment comes in July 2006 but capacity will have already fallen to 8.7 Mb/d. The 300 kb/d of new production from Haradh Increment III will then restore capacity to 9 Mb/d. But even if decline is held at current rates, Saudi capacity will be back to 8.7 Mb/d by the end of 2006 falling to just over 8 Mb/d by the end of 2007. How can I claim that Saudi is about to go into irreversible decline when even on the ASPO reduced recoverable reserves the 50% depletion point will not have been reached? The answer is that Saudi has at various times put nineteen fields into production. Of these eight are “Stars”, being highly productive fields that produce around 90%
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of the country’s production. All the others are “Dogs” that have never worked well and probably never will. Recovery rates of up to 50% may be appropriate for the Stars. For the Dogs 10%, 15% or 20% would be more appropriate. Make this adjustment and Saudi has depleted more than 50% of its realistically recoverable reserves. So my conclusion remains -- Saudi’s final production peak will be in the last quarter of 2004. |
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IMHO great war will happen soon.
Start preparing now. |
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tmazanec1
Heavy Crude
Joined: Oct 12, 2004
Posts: 424
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| Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2004 6:25 am Post subject: |
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| When is Africa expected to peak? |
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tmazanec1
Heavy Crude
Joined: Oct 12, 2004
Posts: 424
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| Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2004 6:27 am Post subject: |
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I think Africa was mentioned earlier in the NL. Sorry again.  |
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tmazanec1
Heavy Crude
Joined: Oct 12, 2004
Posts: 424
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| Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2004 9:05 am Post subject: |
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It is claimed that these two fields will reach full capacity by October
Than we cannot increase their production in November, by definition. Peak Saudi production is not just 4Q, but October! |
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3679
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smiley
Fission
Joined: Apr 16, 2004
Posts: 2125
Location: Europe
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| Posted: Fri Oct 22, 2004 5:43 am Post subject: |
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Don't believe the EIA figures. They are unaudited. They basically send a letter to the SA asking for how much they produce and do not check the numbers.
It is a guessing game but I think these two sources are the most reliable.
http://www.mees.com/ (under energy tables)
http://www.platts.com/Oil/Resources/News%20Features/output.html
According to these two sources SA output grew in June and Juli but according to platts it dropped in September.
Another important fact is that SA is still producing less than in April 2003 (before they cut production). For all we know it could have peaked last year already. |
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tmazanec1
Heavy Crude
Joined: Oct 12, 2004
Posts: 424
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| Posted: Tue Oct 26, 2004 3:29 pm Post subject: |
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smiley (or anyone):
OK, so SA basically lies to the EIA. How long can they continue this? Say they start accelerating the decline, but they tell the EIA that they are rising. How long can they continue the charade? What will clue the EIA as to what is going on? |
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Cool Hand Linc
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Apr 17, 2004
Posts: 984
Location: Tulsa, Ok
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| Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2004 8:22 pm Post subject: SA after peak |
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After SA peaks. What choice will they have but to continue producing as much as is possible.
I don't think we will be able to believe they are really in post peak until several months to a year have gone by with declining numbers.
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Peace out!
Cool Hand Linc  |
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johnmarkos
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 19, 2004
Posts: 892
Location: San Francisco, California
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| Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2004 3:50 pm Post subject: |
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The figure I'd like to see is monthly Saudi exports of sweet crude oil.
I'm thinking of graphing the following stats:
U.S. gross weekly oil imports
Saudi exports or production, whatever I can get
price of unleaded at the Chevron station near where I work
Any other suggestions for stats to put in my "as the peak happens" graph? |
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Marco
Tar Sands
Joined: Nov 02, 2004
Posts: 61
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| Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2004 9:20 pm Post subject: |
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I think I read that the giant Ghawar field in SA produces 5% of global oil- and 70% of Saudi oil. Maybe these figures are not so correct. If not I would like to know the correct figures.
If they are close to accurate everyone should put Ghawar on their watch list. For as goes Ghawar, so go we.
If this field starts to fail- maybe it already has?- PO is upon us.
Marco |
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