How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2006 12:01 pm Post subject: Steep decline in UK oil production
British oil and gas production in the North Sea has continued a steep decline despite the increased drilling activity following high prices.
According to the latest monthly report from the Royal Bank of Scotland published Tuesday, the combined daily average output for UK oil and gas in June was down 13 per cent on the month, while annual production fell 18 per cent.
Oil production growth was down 4 per cent compared with May at 1,411,961 barrels per day (bpd) and down 13 per cent on the same month last year.
The fall in gas output was even greater, decreasing by 23 per cent to 6,429 million standard cubic feet per day (mmcfd) on the month and by 24 per cent compared to a year ago.
Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:52 pm Post subject: Re: Steep decline in UK oil production
Here is another graph for you, assuming the decline rate stays at 11% like it has been.
The UK's internal consumption, by the way, is about 1790 tbpd, and growing at about 1.7% per year, which means that right about now, the UK is no longer a net exporter of oil.
Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2006 5:28 pm Post subject: Re: Steep decline in UK oil production
If productions drops at 11%/ year and consumption increases at 1.7% => they are totally screwed in aprox. 11 years? _________________ capitalism *is* fun blog
Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2006 5:43 pm Post subject: Re: Steep decline in UK oil production
Quote:
Oil production growth was down 4 per cent compared with May at 1,411,961 barrels per day (bpd) and down 13 per cent on the same month last year.
Ok, recap.
June '06 1.412 mpd
May '06 1.471 mpd
June '05 1.623 mpd
It fell 13% in a full year, or an average of a little over 1% for the year per month (compounded). Yet, in the most recent of months (from the data given), it fell a full 4% in a single month. For the previous year, it would have taken an additonal 3 months! Had it's depletion rate been the same as the previous year, it would be 45 kpd higher. It's depletion rate continues to accelerate despite massive drilling and investment due to high prices! Yet people still think we can manage our way out of this crisis. _________________ I want to put out the fires of Hell, and burn down the rewards of Paradise. They block the way to God. I do not want to worship from fear of punishment or for the promise of reward, but simply for the love of God. - Rabia
Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:51 pm Post subject: Re: Steep decline in UK oil production
This calls for an embellished graph.
In theory, they will never totally run out of oil, so whatever your definition of "screwed" is, the supply curve is looking kind of iffy from here on out.
On the other hand, there is the example of the 70's and early 80's when they managed to decrease their consumption by 20% or so. This, of course was accompanied by 16% unemployment and the bringing in of Thatcherism.
I suppose the above graph might explain the actions of Tony Blair ref: Iraq, except there is no real evidence that these actions had anything but a negative effect on global supply.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3302 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:18 am Post subject: Re: Steep decline in UK oil production
pup55 wrote:
Here is another graph for you, assuming the decline rate stays at 11% like it has been.
The UK's internal consumption, by the way, is about 1790 tbpd, and growing at about 1.7% per year, which means that right about now, the UK is no longer a net exporter of oil.
So if you are right the 25 year era of UK oil independence and export has come to a close and they are back on the market all the time for an import fix like most of the industrialized world. That fact alone is going to change UK pollitics substantially. _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2006 7:48 am Post subject: Re: Steep decline in UK oil production
Madpaddy wrote:
Quote:
June '06 1.412 mpd
May '06 1.471 mpd
June '05 1.623 mpd
June has 1 day less than May. If you take this into account it's not so bad (still bad enough though)
How does that change anything? That is the average per day of oil production. There would be a small change in the depletion rate, but in the thousandths or tens of thousandths. Doesn't matter much at all. _________________ I want to put out the fires of Hell, and burn down the rewards of Paradise. They block the way to God. I do not want to worship from fear of punishment or for the promise of reward, but simply for the love of God. - Rabia
Joined: Dec 06, 2005 Posts: 816 Location: Stopped at the border.
Posted: Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:58 am Post subject: Re: Steep decline in UK oil production
Off-shore West Africa is the new North Sea. Pity Europe will have to battle the US for it seeing as how Chavez has gone and sold all of America's oil to the Chinese.
Posted: Sat Sep 09, 2006 3:49 am Post subject: Re: Steep decline in UK oil production
NTBKtrader wrote:
British oil and gas production in the North Sea has continued a steep decline despite the increased drilling activity following high prices.
According to the latest monthly report from the Royal Bank of Scotland published Tuesday, the combined daily average output for UK oil and gas in June was down 13 per cent on the month, while annual production fell 18 per cent.
Oil production growth was down 4 per cent compared with May at 1,411,961 barrels per day (bpd) and down 13 per cent on the same month last year.
The fall in gas output was even greater, decreasing by 23 per cent to 6,429 million standard cubic feet per day (mmcfd) on the month and by 24 per cent compared to a year ago.
Significant production in western Europe started only in the mid-70's, because most of the reserves are in the north sea (and its extensions : norwegian sea, atlantic margin), and it it now well past peak . It will fall to a marginal level before 2015.
So almost all european reserves will be gone in a 40 years timeframe! No other continent has depleted its reserve so fast. They must make us think, since we're claiming to be the "green" continent.
North sea was the big exploration hype in the 70's and 80's. Much like West Africa or GOM now. Deepwater provinces are still young enough, making it relativerly easy to find large fields. But discovery seems to be slowing down in Angola.
In old oil provinces, like Texas or Saudi Arabia, new technologies (water injection, gas injection, horizontal drilling, long-reash wells, multibranch wells, reservoir modlling, and so on) were used progressively during the life of the fields. In the North Sea, they were all used since the beginning, leading to high initial production rates, good recovery ratios (helped by geology) and steep declines.
The same thing will happen in deepwater fields, perharps worst. Depletion rates in deepwater fields are often >10%.
In terms of exploration, norway is in even a worst situation than UK. No sizeable oil or gas find was made since Ormen Lange in 1997, while the UK had Buzzard and Lochnagar.
Posted: Sat Sep 09, 2006 3:53 am Post subject: Re: Steep decline in UK oil production
Doly wrote:
Tanada wrote:
That fact alone is going to change UK pollitics substantially.
It is already changing politics substantially. Energy is very much in the political agenda right now.
People will complain about the way UK reserves were managed. poroduction was maximized in 90's, a period of low oil price (to which uk production contributed).
UK oil is expensive to produce, about 10$ per barrel. Much of it was exported at 15$ - not much profit.
And now, the country has depleted its reserves and must import 75$ oil.
it's hard to imagine a dummest way to use a country's natural reserves.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
blog
