THE Energy, Computing and the Internet (merged)

CeeCee

Will we still be able to communicate after TSHTF?

I've been thinking of getting a solar powered battery charger for my computer, and investigating what sorts of digital communication systems there could still be.

If there is going to still be internet, how will it happen? What do you guys think?

Or should we think about getting ham radios instead?

Ceecee.

jato · Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:37 pm Post subject:

Hard to say how long the internet will last. However, it has to give out at some point Post-Peak.

Ham radio all the way.

Jato= N6X**

I have had my Tech license since the late 1980s.

I have not been active, but I can see using it again in the uncertain future.
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mikela · Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:41 pm Post subject:

Ham radio, particularly CW (morse code) on longer wavelengths (HF), is a very robust method of communication. You can cut through interference and communicate with people on the other side of the world using a radio simple enough to build yourself, running on very low power. But you can't say much because the bandwidth is so low--only a few words per minute-- whereas the Internet has become hugely popular because of its high-bandwidth nature. Without high bandwidth the Internet would be just as useless as BBS's were in the early 1990's, limited by the 2400-baud modems of the day.

I've been toying with the idea of combining the two by putting up directional microwave repeaters and terminal node modems so that I can get high-speed Internet beamed down to me however far from civilization I plant myself. Lots of problems with this idea, though. I would have to maintain an ordinary (cable-modem, DSL) high-speed Internet connection at some place where I won't be living, and I'll have to maintain each repeater station along a line of sight to my place without getting in anyone's way. And then there's the problem that, by amateur radio regulations, you can't do anything business-related beyond calling for a tow truck (so telecommuting, e-commerce, and even banner adds (!) are out) nor can you legally encrypt anything (so don't check your email!). I suppose I might be able to pay for a station licence, but that would ruin the something-for-almost-nothing satisfaction of it all...

I think the Internet will continue. It doesn't take much energy to run a laptop cabable of browsing the web, and the new laptops for the Chinese market can be powered by less than 20W (can't remember exactly), less than $200 worth of solar cells in full sun. Perhaps high-speed internet will become prohibitively expensive, but the prices are still falling due to competition as more infrastructure is laid down. And aren't computers and the Internet still expanding into poorer nations? The technology is just now getting cheap, and it can get cheaper still if that were the aim of the technology companies instead of increasing performance. I expect the Internet will fall victim to rising energy prices and slowing global trade, but I don't see it grinding to a halt, especially as it so easily allows a conduit for the media, commercial enterprise, and perhaps eventually the government.

MonteQuest · Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:57 pm Post subject:

If the Internet goes down so does everything else. Think about it. Almost every financial transaction takes place over the Internet. Like oil, we have become entirely dependent upon the Internet for many, if not all public and private services. If the computers can't run, neither can anything else.

Ham radios and CB's will most definitely be viable for personal communications, but little else.

Am I over stating the impact of losing the Internet?
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Terran · Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:25 pm Post subject:

I'm thinking the internet may still be around after peak. Transfering information requires something to put it in, such as a piece of paper. Of course this takes alot of energy to make and transport, electronic mail seems more energy efficient.
Again the internet has been so inbedded into our culture, that I don't think people will want to let it go so easily.
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jato · Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2004 10:43 pm Post subject:

Would the internet function with increasing nationwide (worldwide for that matter) power outages? I am not to sure exactly what the internet consists of, but I know it requires more power than a solar panel attached to a laptop computer.

I wonder how much power it takes to for the internet to run and to be maintained?

I see power rationing post-peak. Now I am not talking post-peak +1 day. I am talking several years after peak. The grid will have less and less power every year that goes by. Power to food production/delivery & power for basic services; law enforcement, EMS, military, & essential businesses (whatever they might be?!?)

Just a guess.
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gg3 · Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:45 am Post subject:

The public telephone exchanges will always be maintained. Essential infrastructure, right up there with police & fire stations, hospitals, and military bases. The internet backbone will also always be maintained, same reason.

None of these use so much power as to become un-viable. And all of them contribute directly to reducing transportation needs. Anyone else here old enough to remember the slogan "shop by phone"?

The telephone in your house (assuming it's a wired phone, not a cordless) requires 2.5 watts of electricity when it's actually in use (dialing, ringing, conversation). When it's idle, it consumes no power directly, but requires literally a 1/10,000 share of the power used to operate the switching equipment at the central office (each central office switch handles 10,000 local numbers; these in turn are concatenated together in larger exchanges), which today is computerized and therefore consumes far less power than its predecessors of 20 years ago (not to mention the previous generations of electromechanical switches).

All telephone exchanges, and ISPs, have backup power supplies to get them over power outages of varying lengths. Telephone exchanges can run for three days on their batteries, and an additional week or two on diesel generators. If necessary they can be powered by PVs or wind, but in point of fact, the fuel to run them will always be available as a high priority.

Even if rotating power cuts become normal for residences and businesses, your phone will still work as long as it's hard-wired (i.e. not cordless which depends on AC mains power).

The weakest link in the internet is the poorly-protected home desktop (virus risks), particularly those which are still using CRT monitors (power wastage). Your computer might go down from time to time due to a virus or lack of power, but the network itself will keep working.

However, you can -right now- purchase for $350 a portable PV pack with batteries, which can run a laptop.

Laptops in general use far less power than desktops. Add an extension keyboard and mouse, put the laptop unit up on a stand, and you have the same ergonomics as a desktop unit with far less power consumption, and the added benefit of portability.

One thing we all need to learn is to get away from clutter-heavy, bandwidth-guzzling production values.

The vast majority of communication does not have to look like television programs or Hallmark greeting cards: words are sufficient, and should be able to stand on their own merits. One of the things I like about this BBS is its visual simplicity, speed of access, and freedom from superfluous visual garbage.

You can do much to reduce bandwidth-guzzling. For example, the ".rtf" and ".rtfd" document formats are typically 1/4 of the size of an MS Word ".doc"-formatted document that is otherwise identical.

More later...

lotrfan55345 · Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2004 2:18 pm Post subject:

I can imagine kids post peak playing Halo 2 or something online while wearing buffalo skin ^___^

MarkR · Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:16 pm Post subject:

I don't think that communication grids will be much affected, mainly because I don't anticipate that electricity supplies will be critically compromised.

At the worst, there may be rolling power blackouts for a few hours each day, but between such times, there should be sufficient power for most communications to work as normal.

There is sufficient diversity in the electricity networks, that a critical shortage of natural gas, won't leave entire countries in the dark. If it does become obvious that NG is going to be a major limiting factor, then there are several options:
1) un-mothball coal plants - there are a number of these around, shut down because they aren't cost effective, or can't afford the clean air permits.
2) Build new plants - Simple coal are quick and cheap to construct, but pollute - whether we go back to these, instead of moving forward with clean coal, depends on how acute the crunch is. Clean coal plants are hugely expensive, and time consuming to construct.
New nuclear plant is also an option - there are plans underway at present, to make licencing and construction of new plants, much, much quicker - potentially allowing all the paperwork to be done in 6 months or less. Modern off-the-shelf designs are also designed for quick construction from as little as 24 months (100 MW pebble bed modular reactor) to as long as 36 months (2000 MW advanced CANDU power plant) - and at costs far below clean coal.
3) Demand destruction - 4 day or 3 day weeks. Rolling blackouts. Public service announcements encouraging conservation (avoid AC, electric clothes dryers, etc.)

Interestingly, 'the internet' is a significant consumer of electricity, although the actual power consumption was grossly overestimated in its early days (so much so, that local power grids were upgraded at such expense that some elec companies faced serious financial problems after their customers decided they only wanted 10% of the power they originally estimated).

Internet 'hotels' - basically warehouses, filled floor-to-ceiling and wall-to-wall with high-powered computers and high-performance networking equipment are big consumers - I've seen estimates of over 200-300 W/sq. ft for some of the most densely packed installations. For years, high power consumption was accepted, but more recently, following the dot-com crash, belts have been tightened, and extensive research performed to try and improve energy efficiency: potential energy savings of up to 50% are entirely realistic, without the need to change the computers themselves - just simple things like turning up the temperature on the AC from 16C (the usual) to about 28C, and upgrading to high-efficiency power supplies and voltage regulators.

Licho · Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:23 pm Post subject:

Well, there are just few such server-hosting rooms in each city, and there is certainly more users than servers Smile

Even if server consumes 300W at constant rate, your car engine consumes several hundred times more energy Smile

Also, only biggest sites need some expensive equipment and multiple servers, normal sites, like this one, are probably hosted along with many other pages on same machine.
Routers, repeaters, optical cables and other equipment neccesary for internet also consume very few energy.

Ian · Coal Joined: Aug 24, 2004 Posts: 5 Location: Houston, TX

Also remember the internet is a distributed network, designed for redundancy and to be difficult to bring down. A regional power outage (such as happened in the US northeast, ohio valley and southern Quebec and Ontario) will disrupt functioning in that area but outside the internet will function normally. Now of course the power grid (at least in the US) is also a form of network, though nowhere near as robust. But still the internet should survive even if at times it is functioning more like many regional internets instead of a single global one.

One would hope as well given the overall utility of the internet that governments would make an effort to keep it up and running. After all snail mail, newspapers, magazines, music and even movie distribution could all be done over the internet and only the last one is sufficiently bandwidth intensive that upgrades might be necessary if volume were to increase.

Dvanharn

This small company, in which I am heavily invested for now produces "Class-T" amplifier chipsets and power management technology that will save a lot of energy for electronic applications. They have 52 "defensible" patents issued, and 32 in process. They are slowly making progress towards their first profitable quarter. Most of their design wins to date are with Asian companies, including Chinese for both their domestic and export markets.

Applications include some important ones related to power consumption by internet hardware and laptop computers (most of the savings is from heat wasted by the low efficiency of current technologies - less power consumption = less waste heat AND less power consumption, i.e., longer battery life for portable devices).

Where Tripath chipsets are used:

- DSLAM drivers (the units at the telephone office for DSL) tha use much less power and increase unit density - now shipping to Alcatel-China.
- Power managment for LCD screens for laptop/notebook computers that will double or possibly triple battery life, and decrease power consumption for desktop LCD monitors. (Still in development)
- RF aplications the will double or possibly triple cell phone talk time, etc. (Still in development, but the name of the cell phone business partner in
Japan will be announced soon.)

Tripath's first market penetration is with their audio amplifier chipsets that are so efficient compared to standard analog Class AB amps that 400 watts of output (100wx 4 channels) generate only 40 watts of heat vs. 400 watts for Class AB amps. On a global basis, this is a HUGE energy savings for the sum of all audio, LCD TV, home theater, portable and automotive aplications. New in-dash car stereo head units have 4x100 watts built-in with no heat problems.

On a personal level, I sold my big, heavy $1800 hand-made Italian 2.5wpc single-ended 2A3 tube amplifier:

and replaced it with a $30 "Sonic Impact" Tripath-powered amp:

.

The sound is excellent with my big, classic 1984 Klipsch Forte II horn speakers. I get 97dB sound level with 1 watt, and nearly 110 dB max with the Sonic impact amp, although it does not have strong bass. I eventually hope to power my home stereo with a medium-sized gel battery and a single solar PV panel to charge the battery. I hope to do the same with a flat-panel TV and laptop computer in the near future.

If any of you smart, young educated technical types (I know that there some young physicists that hang out here here) care to calculate the possibilities of the amount of energy that could be saved globally with with the adoption of Tripath products vs current technology, I'll bet it is many nuclear power plants.

Caveat: I'm not "pushing" Tripath stock - everyone should do their own "due diligence" before investing their money. Peak oil and other economic issues could seriously depress the entire stock market. I realize that there is a risk with "new technology" tech stocks like Tripath, but I hope to sell my shares and add to my meager retirement funds before TSHTF. Tripath is on track to reach their first profitable quarter next year - I hope it happens "before the crash".

Dave

Guest · Posted: Tue Sep 14, 2004 5:39 am Post subject:

Thank you very much for all the thought-provoking replies.

Well so far I've had a look at a solar powered laptop-recharging device in a shop, and I've bought a book called 'The Complete Shortwave Listener's Handbook' which also has a chapter on ham radio.

There is so much to learn!

I think communications will become another big skillset for a post oil world.

Cee Cee.

Pops · Posted: Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:29 am Post subject:

:D

It’s kind of amusing how on one thread folks are forecasting total anarchy, roving bands of starving looters and the collapse of governments worldwide while on this one predicting the internet will live forever.
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JackBob · Posted: Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:44 am Post subject: