Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 2:08 am Post subject: Oil prices projected to nosedive to $45
not if Opec have their way they won't.
"Crude could fetch just US$45 a barrel by end of decade, report says
OTTAWA - Oil prices, which hit a 14-month low of less than US$60 a barrel this week, will sink a lot lower over the next four years, according to new Canadian government projections which see prices falling to US$45 a barrel by the end of the decade"
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 2:36 am Post subject: Re: Oil prices projected to nosedive to $45
KevO wrote:
not if Opec have their way they won't.
"Crude could fetch just US$45 a barrel by end of decade, report says
OTTAWA - Oil prices, which hit a 14-month low of less than US$60 a barrel this week, will sink a lot lower over the next four years, according to new Canadian government projections which see prices falling to US$45 a barrel by the end of the decade"
Good, than Americans can carry on dreaming...
Is anyone here able to explain paradox "the fewer oil we have, the cheaper it gets" without resorting to conspiracy theories or to kind of matrix logic ... I know, that you are aware of that, because if you are not, than Mr X would not be aware of (*,*), and I know, that he is because you....?
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 6:12 am Post subject: Re: Oil prices projected to nosedive to $45
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Is anyone here able to explain paradox "the fewer oil we have, the cheaper it gets" ?
Autumn (or 'fall') traditionally sees a drop in oil prices, reflection a drop in demand from the time after the North American driving season and before the cold weather ups demand for heating oil.
I confess the that size of the drop has suprised me but there has been talk of demand reduction in the States. Given the tight production margins then any change in demand seems to have wild swings. Also as demand gets close to supply limits then there is a lot more volutility in the market.
In other discussions on future oil prices there seems to be two alternatives that it is hard to choose from: a) prices will rise and rise as demand will be close to or above supply, or b) prices will initially rise then the economy collapses, resulting in a collapse in demand, so now with demand much below supply prices will collapse.
If the rumours of demand reduction are true then what we are seeing is closer to b), but much milder ... some reduction in demand, allowing OPEC to cut some supplies, but we are not seeing a general collapse. _________________ We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6624 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 7:03 am Post subject: Re: Oil prices projected to nosedive to $45
Demand can't fall much, or for long---not given the huge buildout in oil-gobbling infrastructure over the past decade around the world.
In other words, a vast percentage of demand is inelastic.
So what you have is not really a drop in absolute demand (except very briefly) but a fleeting reduction in the rate of growth of demand.
All the trends that will bring us to $100--$200/bbl oil by 2010 or so are in place. Nothing fundamental has changed and nothing fundamental CAN change.
This is a huge buying opportunity if you're into energy stocks and have a smidgeon of patience and guts. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 7:46 am Post subject: Re: Oil prices projected to nosedive to $45
I am beginning to think someones setting America up for the fall. Lull them to thinking (not that they needed to try) oil is everywhere and you can buy that 2nd home and the 2nd SUV, maybe even that private jet if your budget can afford it (and you can cause oil is CHEAP again forever). Then when someone feels we are ripe for the pickings, jack up oil and flood media outlets with stories of how oil has just dried up and theres nothing to be pumped in volumes that can equal the demand.
Boom. Down goes America.
I think an ever vigilant outlook should be used during this price 'war'. But we all know collectively America will eat it up and come back for seconds while the getting is good and the price to be paid later be damned.
Sometimes I think America is the stupidest country ever. yet we will fall for this. Mark my words, someones gunna have a great laugh at our expense. And America collectively cant even see it coming.
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 8:03 am Post subject: Re: Oil prices projected to nosedive to $45
The projections regarding lower oil prices from 2009 onwards are based on the knowledge that there are a number of projects which will be bringing additional oil on stream towards the end of the decade. A number of firms who do this sort of analysis such as WoodMackenzie and IHS Energy have shown that if demand growth is low there will be considerably more product available than is demanded. That being said based on what I've seen from the projections if demand growth continues at 1.5%/annum then there is only a brief period when there is a big gap between supply and demand, it is quickly closed in the early part of the next decade unless some significant discoveries are made in the next couple of years. Of course the projections also assume little in the way of project delays and I think we can expect to see a number of those. As a consequence you may never see a broadening of the supply demand gap to any great extent.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 8:05 am Post subject: Re: Oil prices projected to nosedive to $45
Fergus wrote:
Sometimes I think America is the stupidest country ever. yet we will fall for this. Mark my words, someones gunna have a great laugh at our expense. And America collectively cant even see it coming.
It's not that the powers that be can't see this coming, although that's partly true, they just don't want to tell the truth. Do they really want to tell the US that current policies will lead to a much lower standard of living and possible serious wars?
One of the great ironies of PO is that the US is using more energy than ever before - so things are really better than ever before. It's very difficult to see the down side of PO, etc., under these circumstances.
Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 3065 Location: The Urban Village
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 8:26 am Post subject: Re: Oil prices projected to nosedive to $45
Heineken wrote:
In other words, a vast percentage of demand is inelastic.
This is the big question, how elastic is demand?
I think it needs to be looked at in different time scales. 1) In the short term, Americans do take quite a number of discretionary trips - these can be reduced very quickly as a result of price. 2) Driving to work is not discretionary, but you can carpool, or buy a more efficient car - these are all increasing in time scale to effect. 3) Finally, there is the arrangement of settlement and how they are connected together with transportation (infrastructure) - this has the longest time scale to change.
If there is any bright spot to America's predicament it is that we have a lot of slop in 1) and 2), but if all you do is progressively become more efficient in 1) and 2) eventually you will take all the slop out and end up in the same predicament with only 3) to change and that takes a long time.
Of course this ignores the idea that if prices increase it may be very hard to make the changes in 2) for the masses which is a real consideration as well.
IMO, we should be working on 3) now, while we can. Some places are doing just that, while others are not
Joined: Apr 28, 2006 Posts: 2897 Location: East Texas
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 8:49 am Post subject: Re: Oil prices projected to nosedive to $45
DantesPeak wrote:
It's not that the powers that be can't see this coming, although that's partly true, they just don't want to tell the truth. Do they really want to tell the US that current policies will lead to a much lower standard of living and possible serious wars?
Its worse than that... Your statement would at least involve a quasi choice. I think the reality as seen by those in power is that all possible policies lead to a much lower standard of living and serious wars are guaranteed. _________________ abundance fleeting
men falling like hungry leaves
decay masters all
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 9:16 am Post subject: Re: Oil prices projected to nosedive to $45
Quote:
I think the reality as seen by those in power is that all possible policies lead to a much lower standard of living and serious wars are guaranteed.
Apparently these guys haven't checked into the "powerdown" scenario in which we just start using a whole lot less, quit subsidizing the suburbs and even tax them, get rid of mass consumerism, SUV's, McMansions, etc. We have plenty of resources in the US if we lower our consumption. Add in Canada and we're good to go for North America. We could probably even add in Central America and not have to worry about resource wars.
As far as a lower standard of living, standard of living isn't just how big and comfy your house is or how big your wallet or tummy is, it's education, health, enjoyment. We have an immense amount of room to improve in the standard of living. I'd say we have a very poor standard of living now. Sure, we have plenty of food. But how many people are happy? Look at the tens of millions on daily drugs. Look at how we need hundreds of thousands of immigrants every year to come in to be our upper-educational class. Look at our shitty health care system. More walking and biking alone would save a crap load.
It's very possible to get out of the Middle East, wean ourselves off of oil and the like, and actually be better for it (and not just from the 'terrorist' perspective). _________________ I want to put out the fires of Hell, and burn down the rewards of Paradise. They block the way to God. I do not want to worship from fear of punishment or for the promise of reward, but simply for the love of God. - Rabia
Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 3065 Location: The Urban Village
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 9:32 am Post subject: Re: Oil prices projected to nosedive to $45
mekrob wrote:
As far as a lower standard of living, standard of living isn't just how big and comfy your house is or how big your wallet or tummy is, it's education, health, enjoyment. We have an immense amount of room to improve in the standard of living. I'd say we have a very poor standard of living now. Sure, we have plenty of food. But how many people are happy?
Hallelujah, brother!
Some people just can't imagine it, but sometimes when they try it, they like it. Can't just cold-turkey off consumerism though without something to replace it - like social and civic interaction, art, culture, and a beautiful environment to enjoy.
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 10:04 am Post subject: Re: Oil prices projected to nosedive to $45
mekrob wrote:
As far as a lower standard of living, standard of living isn't just how big and comfy your house is or how big your wallet or tummy is, it's education, health, enjoyment.
Unless of course one considers their standard of living how big and comfy their house is, how much money they have in the bank and how often they can eat out, and don't worry much about the education mommy and daddy paid for, their cholestoral level in 20 years or how screwed up their internal compass is.
Its a beauty is in the eye of the beholder arguement, we all value things differently. Myself, I like motorcycles, couldn't be happy without a 2 wheeler around for commuting to work, traveling across the country, racing at the track or exploring back roads with. My mom hates the things.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13177 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 10:05 am Post subject: Re: Oil prices projected to nosedive to $45
Yeah, we'll powerdown by losing our jobs. Those discretionary trips and consumerism = someone's job, you know.
What do YOU do for a living which is so vital and non-discretionary? _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
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but there has been talk of demand reduction in the States. Given the tight production margins then any change in demand seems to have wild swings. Also as demand gets close to supply limits then there is a lot more volutility in the market.
