Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3143 Location: One more question...
Posted: Sun Nov 26, 2006 3:57 am Post subject: Impact of energy depletion on other resource curves, ......
....particularly metals.
Here's another project for my to do list, which is currently overflowing with money-making tasks. (I do have to eat, you know)
Start off with looking at the extraction rate history for various metals.
If possible, find the current mean ore to metals ratio for each, with as much history as possible.
The result will reveal which metals are actually in depletion that is concealed by cheap energy input.
Next you project a "rate of impact" by factoring cheap FF depletion over mineral production rate. It may generate an interesting chart.
Copper is a good example, I think.
Are there any dense veins of copper in production? Or is it all coming from strip mines at some ridiculously low yield? If the ability to strip mine goes away, will prospecting efforts find new dense veins somewhere?
Those are the questions that interest me here.
Again, I hope someone with a little time will be interested enough to dig into it. No way I can get to it until next year. _________________ "Don't ever become a pessimist... a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events."
Robert A. Heinlein
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 8:29 am Post subject: Re: Impact of energy depletion on other resource curves, ..
Very interesting. Most folks, even peak oilers tend to forget energy is but just one of the several resouces that will be in short supply sometime this century due overconsumption and overpopulation. That is why I am still pessimistic over the long term, if not the short term. Has any study related to what you have suggested been done you know before? I do think the limits to growth study did take several resource curves into account....wonder if they allowed for how energy resource constraints might affect it in the future.....?
Any idea how we could get data to study something like this? We will have to short list perhaps a certain number of resources which are critical for modern industrial civilization and for which there are no substitutes. I think we also need to take price and availability into account on a regional basis as I dont think the effects of energy depletion will be uniformly felt around the world, and the more energy intensive techniques will carry on for different times in different parts of the world........ _________________ Let them hate so long as they fear - Caligula
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 9:15 am Post subject: Re: Impact of energy depletion on other resource curves, ..
venky wrote:
I do think the limits to growth study did take several resource curves into account...
Incorrect. They had a generic "nonrenewable resources" variable, that was all. It was not even divided into "fossil fuels" and "raw materials", which I think it should be.
However, one could take the point of view that only fossil fuels are truly nonrenewable. Other raw materials such as metals should be possible to recycle.
Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3143 Location: One more question...
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 10:07 am Post subject: Re: Impact of energy depletion on other resource curves, ..
Doly wrote:
venky wrote:
I do think the limits to growth study did take several resource curves into account...
Incorrect. They had a generic "nonrenewable resources" variable, that was all. It was not even divided into "fossil fuels" and "raw materials", which I think it should be.
However, one could take the point of view that only fossil fuels are truly nonrenewable. Other raw materials such as metals should be possible to recycle.
Good point. Most metals are recyclable indefinitely, at least those that don't oxidize away.
this brings us back to previously noted "future opportunity".
Landfill mining. _________________ "Don't ever become a pessimist... a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events."
Robert A. Heinlein
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 10:30 am Post subject: Re: Impact of energy depletion on other resource curves, ..
Doly wrote:
venky wrote:
I do think the limits to growth study did take several resource curves into account...
Incorrect. They had a generic "nonrenewable resources" variable, that was all. It was not even divided into "fossil fuels" and "raw materials", which I think it should be.
However, one could take the point of view that only fossil fuels are truly nonrenewable. Other raw materials such as metals should be possible to recycle.
A single variable for all nonrenewable resources? I am having a little difficulty understanding that; as different fossil fuels and resources have different extraction and consumption profiles, wonder how their model could then predict when different resources would be exhausted.
True that metals could be recycled, but the consumption of most raw materials especially in countries like India and China is increasing rapidly. I think it is likely that the upper limit on the extraction and consumption of most raw materials will be reached far before these countries arrive at a per capita usage that matches the West. Then shortages will be faced in parts of the world, despite the possibility of recycling. _________________ Let them hate so long as they fear - Caligula
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 11:37 am Post subject: Re: Impact of energy depletion on other resource curves, ..
How accurate do you expect this to be? and how far back would you want to model I believe theres a site that has amounts mined in pounds the only problem would be estimating the amount of energy used.
Joined: Jan 06, 2006 Posts: 508 Location: Pacific Northwest
Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 12:08 pm Post subject: Re: Impact of energy depletion on other resource curves, ..
At some point landfills will have better 'ore' to waste ratios then the mines, until then mining will be the best option...However in some cases waste recycling is already worthwhile, like electronics...many contain gold and rare earths, which are all very useful. _________________ We stand here, as the light of other days surrounds us.
"Hail the Dead"
Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 8:09 pm Post subject: Re: Impact of energy depletion on other resource curves, ..
I have bumped up a couple of threads.
David Roper a prof from Va Tech has beat you to it by about 25 years.
I believe he has logged into po.com as "droper" so you might be able to PM him.
It has been awhile since a lot of this has been updated, but the main theory at the time was that minerals, like oil, should have a hubbertian peak and decline, and so you should be able to learn something about what oil will do based on what a lot of these minerals have done.
Kind of interesting.
I keep wondering if there is any newer data on this.
Does a generic analysis that might refer to the extraction profile of any non renewable resource. Models its production in the early, middle and late periods of its production. Also makes the connection that the depletion of one resource say crude oil might make the production of another resource say Iron more difficult.
Dont know if this theory has been applied to model the production profile of any specific resource; which would certainly be an interesting exercise. _________________ Let them hate so long as they fear - Caligula
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