How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6019 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sun Dec 03, 2006 9:14 pm Post subject: Re: Expert writers needed for new project
A focus on "clean energy" is very dubious to me, because "clean energy" will inevitably still be used to power the same extremely destructive infrastructure and the same old patterns played out thereupon. With "clean energy," perhaps you're changing gears to a more efficient gear, but the car is still moving in the same direction---toward a cliff.
What we need is a revolution in how we live. We need to power down, slow and ultimately reverse population growth in a controlled and humane way, and totally reorganize our priorities and how our civilization arranges itself.
The only arrangement that will work, in my view, is one based on small, walkable/bikeable, mostly de-electrified towns with shops and cottage industries, surrounded by organic farms and orchards, surrounded in turn by wilderness, which gets the lion's share of the land (and not the puny half-acre we currently accord it). Everything connected by trains, not superhighways. No cars. No leafblowers. Cottages, not mega-mansions.
Total global population, maybe 1 billion.
That's the sort of world we need to work toward, with the full force of our remaining resources.
Once we do those things---which of course we never will---the whole subject of "clean energy," and even PO, becomes moot.
"Clean energy" is part of the nascent Band-Aid movement that seeks to keep the party going pretty much as it is, with no real sacrifice or pain. Very dangerous.
Clean energy can't possibly replace fossil energy. So, by pursuing it, we lose precious time needed to start driving toward the real solutions. You'll never reach clean energy without civilizational collapse. Quite an irony, huh?
And clean energy isn't nearly as clean as claimed.
So, you're wasting your time, as is anyone spending his life writing about clean energy. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5032 Location: Oklahoma
Posted: Sun Dec 03, 2006 9:49 pm Post subject: Re: Expert writers needed for new project
Heineken wrote:
which of course we never will
Speak for yourself - or don't you think precise language can be important?
You know I agree with your general points, but I know that you are doing what you can for the most part to work toward those things, and so am I. So are several others on these forums, and some other people I've met. Words are powerful. Please be careful how you use "we", it's a potent tool. _________________ "Every junkie's like a setting sun..." - Neil Young
Posted: Mon Dec 04, 2006 12:23 am Post subject: Re: Expert writers needed for new project
pstarr wrote:
Sure you can educate people. But then you have to tell them they won't have air conditioning in the summer or their daughter can't blowdry her hair--ever. they will walk away.
Like I said in my last post: we are not gonna tell people what to do, we will enable them to draw the conclusions themselves.
@energyhog: thanks for your contribution
@heineken... okay, guess you like to watch the train come closer. I wonder, how do you think we will ever make a transition if we do not start now? And you state that clean energysources can't replace conventional.
You are obviously right on that. Clean Energy will indeed not be able to replace all the energy we use. I believe I stated earlier that indeed, power saving is an important aspect of the solution to our problems. It seems to me you have quite a clear idea on saving energy, so why don't you take the invitation and write an article on the "low energy society" you would like to see (of course, objective and less doomy like many articles are, not to scare of the people we want to reach :D )
Joined: Jun 28, 2005 Posts: 511 Location: The Netherlands
Posted: Mon Dec 04, 2006 4:24 am Post subject: Re: Expert writers needed for new project
EnergyHog wrote:
So what do you do? Well the answer is simple; control the population. The implementation; difficult but China has had some success with population control.
I'm afraid this is not evident per se...Some time ago I saw a documentary on China, which told us that many present day Chinese families in the eastern part of the country spoil their single children with all the goods they can lay their hands on, just to compensate for them being on their own... Sort of a Jevon's Paradox for birth control, if you ask me. This is not to say that population control is no solution, but it does seem that it can not stand on its own. _________________ The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6019 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Mon Dec 04, 2006 6:51 am Post subject: Re: Expert writers needed for new project
Clean_Energy_NOW wrote:
how do you think we will ever make a transition if we do not start now?
A transition toward what? Just less pollution? That's the whole problem with the alternative-energy movement. There's little real vision at a time when we desperately need radical change and indeed radical sacrifice.
Options like "clean energy" need to be presented in terms of a much larger strategy that includes deindustrialization, demilitarization, and population-control measures. When guys like you start doing that, and emphasizing the total picture, then I'll listen. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Last edited by Heineken on Mon Dec 04, 2006 6:57 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6019 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Mon Dec 04, 2006 6:55 am Post subject: Re: Expert writers needed for new project
Shannymara wrote:
Heineken wrote:
which of course we never will
Speak for yourself - or don't you think precise language can be important?
You know I agree with your general points, but I know that you are doing what you can for the most part to work toward those things, and so am I. So are several others on these forums, and some other people I've met. Words are powerful. Please be careful how you use "we", it's a potent tool.
By "we" I was referring to the world's population, Shanny. I was saying that I don't think "we" (people) are willing to make the hard choices. I wasn't referring, necessarily, to other PO.com members. I think this was reasonably clear.
Sorry if you were in some way offended, though. I know I'm becoming more strongly opinionated with time as I learn more about our huge dilemma and as we continue to do close to nothing about it. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Posted: Mon Dec 04, 2006 8:01 am Post subject: Re: Expert writers needed for new project
Clean_Energy_NOW wrote:
(of course, objective and less doomy like many articles are, not to scare of the people we want to reach :D )
Whoever you decide to let write for your project is going to need some skill... it's a shaky tightrope between scaring people just enough to make them take notice but not so much that they tune out and claim chicken little on ya.
Posted: Mon Dec 04, 2006 8:27 am Post subject: Re: Expert writers needed for new project
Heineken wrote:
Clean_Energy_NOW wrote:
how do you think we will ever make a transition if we do not start now?
A transition toward what? Just less pollution? That's the whole problem with the alternative-energy movement. There's little real vision at a time when we desperately need radical change and indeed radical sacrifice.
Options like "clean energy" need to be presented in terms of a much larger strategy that includes deindustrialization, demilitarization, and population-control measures. When guys like you start doing that, and emphasizing the total picture, then I'll listen.
Everyone refuses to talk about population control. I feel there is no point in discussing anything until population control is agreed upon.
No matter how conservative you get, the population will just expand and sooner or later you will be back to consuming the same amount as before.
The human population will be controlled at some point but probably not by humans. _________________ Survive the economic fallout...
PeakEconomy.com
Posted: Mon Dec 04, 2006 8:38 am Post subject: Re: Expert writers needed for new project
jeezlouise wrote:
Clean_Energy_NOW wrote:
(of course, objective and less doomy like many articles are, not to scare of the people we want to reach :D )
Whoever you decide to let write for your project is going to need some skill... it's a shaky tightrope between scaring people just enough to make them take notice but not so much that they tune out and claim chicken little on ya.
I was scared out of my mind when I found out about peak oil and I think that's a good thing.
If people aren't scared by it that means they don't truly understand it or they just don't care. _________________ Survive the economic fallout...
PeakEconomy.com
Posted: Mon Dec 04, 2006 9:02 am Post subject: Re: Expert writers needed for new project
EnergyHog wrote:
I was scared out of my mind when I found out about peak oil and I think that's a good thing.
If people aren't scared by it that means they don't truly understand it or they just don't care.
I would say it's 80% the former and 19% the latter (the 1% being those who both understand and care.)
I wasn't really scared when I "found out", (it seems funny to me to say that... like it's this huge secret) I've always known, as I think most people have known sub-consciously that overpopulation can't go on forever, but most people will never grasp the degree to which society is built out of the cheap gooey that's now gone. People largely don't care about where their stuff comes from, or where it goes to die, just whether or not it can be had at will and whether or not it works. And as such they also don't understand that the oil boom partly caused the population boom, which turned right around and demanded more.. thus the dysfunctional relationship with our environment.
Posted: Mon Dec 04, 2006 5:20 pm Post subject: Re: Expert writers needed for new project
[quote="ElijahJones"][quote="Madpaddy"]
Quote:
Clean Energy NOW! is a young organization combining the conventional ways of promoting clean energy with the new possibilities given to us by modern technology.
As Energyhog implied - energy conservation is the most fundamental principle of environmentalism.
Quote:
Can we acknowledge the need for conservation (efficiency) and growth limits, or do we still think we can get ever more efficient as we grow forever and ever.
I do think the Poster here is trying to do something that is nigh to impossible: write articles that use the language of the MSM and still get people really worked up about alternative energy. Yes you'll get some, but if they ever expect more than a token, they willbe dissapointed.
Example: Energy Star is one of the most succesful environmental programs that has ever existed. And yet after 20 years it has managed to make us more efficient, but not at all to lessen the danger from peak oil or climate change.
The reasons is simple, economies are like animal population, they grow as long as they have room to. By becoming more efficient without first building strong incentives to limit demand growth all you are doing is making room for others to use the supply that you don't anymore.
You have to understand how important the idea of a healthy 2-3% growth rate is to the current state of affairs. The problem is we are about half way up the logistic curve and the days of 5% growth for America are just gone. There will come a time when net growth over five year periods will be .5%. The reason America gets hit the hardest is we have already maxed out the advancement potential of oil and use it in about 95% of what we do.
There are many ways that an economy can grow. Here are a few.
1) It can grow in sheer number of people (per capita demand staying the same)
2) It can grow in productivity (utilizing oil makes us vastly more productive, but the implementation is largely used up)
3) It can grow in per capita demand, people can become bigger consumers.
So you can actually look at growth potential in a very generic way by this forumula.
i - is the index for the ith person
H - the number of people
P - their productivity score
D - current per capita demand
In order to make comparison you should look at countries and you need the maximum growth potential defined by an estimate of the highest number of people in the country this has to be estimated, the highest possible per capita demand, and the productivity of a completely space age citizen.
Some of the number there are hard to come by but the argument itself points to the fact that a country like India (despite its grinding poverty) if it has access to oil and oil technology has a massive growth potential. Look at the difference in productivity between an untouchable living in the dirt and the same fellow at $1 per day working in a fossil fuel powered factory. But America already takes almost optimal advantage of fossil fuel induced growth mechanisms. The only options we have are to become more efficient and in the future we will try to eek out those last little drops of growth by doing just that.
Lastly, if you neglect to observe that the world population locally, regionally and globally is in overshoot to the available resources once oil is taken out of the picture you will not understand the seriousness of our position.
So I think many people here wold not write for something like you are talking about, even though many of them have expertise, because the soft sell is just too little too late. And most of us don't really care to try to make money off of the coming catastrophe. If you wanted to pay me to be involved in a solution, I would count it an honor. In fact I would be on any committee you suggest probably just for airfare and lodging. But if you are pedaling novelty science disguised as a grass roots solution to peak oil, I can't in good conscience be involved in that. People's live are too important and time too precious to help someone make a buck off biofuels.
Bravo! _________________ Survive the economic fallout...
PeakEconomy.com
Think of deficient education as the basis for these problems whether lawyer or liberal arts educated bureaucrat, media person
Do not fear the enemy, for your enemy can only take your life. It is far better that you fear the media, for they will steal your HONOR. That awful power, the public opinion of a nation, is created in America by a horde of ignorant, self-complacent simpletons who failed at ditching and shoemaking and fetched up in journalism on their way to the poorhouse.
Mark Twain
In America half the population doesn't read the paper. Clearly, they are the intelligent half. Gore Vidal
or politician.
Posted: Tue Dec 05, 2006 2:12 am Post subject: Re: Expert writers needed for new project
@billp:
right you are. But it would be nice if the thinkers would also write
@Heineken:
again, stop arguing that we are to narrow in our scope. I may have formulated it weakly in my first post, but I already pointed out that conservation is an important factor as well.
The solution to our problems will lay in reducing energy needs, while finding alternatives for the unavoidable.
However... this project is aimed at those who do not visit PO sites, who do not visit climate-change sites. The kind of people who get sick when others try to convince them of looming disasters. Those who see us discuss and think: "what an idiots".
There is a HUGE group of people out there who do not respond well to the tone that is played on many sites about energy problems. Those are our target. Not the people who visit these sites anyway.
Now...population control... true as it may be, it may also remind people of some things that happened in the past, where a regime would control who would get born, and who not, trying to use eugenics to create the people needed. It also draws attention to china's one-child-policy and the pains these have caused over there.
By focussing on these aspect, we would drive away a great many people who at first glance judge us to be some fascist pricks telling them how to run their lives.
Posted: Tue Dec 05, 2006 8:38 am Post subject: Re: Expert writers needed for new project
Clean_Energy_NOW wrote:
@billp:
right you are. But it would be nice if the thinkers would also write
@Heineken:
again, stop arguing that we are to narrow in our scope. I may have formulated it weakly in my first post, but I already pointed out that conservation is an important factor as well.
The solution to our problems will lay in reducing energy needs, while finding alternatives for the unavoidable.
However... this project is aimed at those who do not visit PO sites, who do not visit climate-change sites. The kind of people who get sick when others try to convince them of looming disasters. Those who see us discuss and think: "what an idiots".
There is a HUGE group of people out there who do not respond well to the tone that is played on many sites about energy problems. Those are our target. Not the people who visit these sites anyway.
Now...population control... true as it may be, it may also remind people of some things that happened in the past, where a regime would control who would get born, and who not, trying to use eugenics to create the people needed. It also draws attention to china's one-child-policy and the pains these have caused over there.
By focussing on these aspect, we would drive away a great many people who at first glance judge us to be some fascist pricks telling them how to run their lives.
Again, this is NOT what we want to do.
*goes to edit the topic-title*
The carrying capacity of the earth is maybe 1-2 billion people, it might be best if the other 4.5 billion didn't see it coming. Let them be ignorantly blissful and enjoy their last days buying all the lovely Escalade's and flat screen TV's.
www.DieOff.org _________________ Survive the economic fallout...
PeakEconomy.com
All times are GMT - 6 Hours Goto page Previous1, 2, 3Next
Page 2 of 3
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
