Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 10:45 am Post subject: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.
Third world : It has already started shutting down.Very soon it will be back to medieval times.Media age to live there approx 25 years
The lucky countries will be ones that have no resources to be stolen with extreme violence.
USA. Citizens categorized in 4 classes.
A The very rich
B People that have health care now
C People that do not have health care now but have a place to stay.
D The homeless
The A : No problem .All gonna move in gated communities with more private cops than ever.
The B: No health care or driving for them . But they are going to do just fine otherwise .Constant fear of being unlucky and dropping to the "C" class.
The C : The new homeless
The D: Living hell in earth.
Most C and D are going to "live" in suburbia.
B will live in the cities
Overall a much much poorer country.
EU.
States will state together for protection. There is a huge cultural difference in USA versus EU . IN USA war means success. IN EU it means death and suffering.
Small states will be afraid of Russia of going alone and being pray of another state and the rich states will take advantage of this.
I see a major turn in the left and or fascism for most EU states and much less driving but otherwise everything will be fine.Everyone including the ultra rich will be poorer.
UK. A much much poorer country but they will survive unless the gulf stream shuts down.If in does then mad max.
Russia : The new superpower much more important than USA in the future.
Nukes + oil + gas + people used to difficulties huge advantage
China They will just retool their exports for internal consumption.They have some oil and lots of coal big hydro and with most of the remaining manufacturing capacity in the world the only country able to mass produce renewables with ease after peak oil.
The huge population is extremely young and even children work. They have a huge surplus able to outbid everyone else for oil.They are a dictatorship can control their people and any excess baby girls can basically disappear a big advantage after peak oil.
A new superpower.
India Just a big third world country . It is going to collapse suffer mass death.Nuclear war with Pakistan is possible.
Japan . They will do poorly but they will survive.
Their society is totally controllable they have no sprawl the ceo gets no more than 10 times than the cleaner in a corp they have the best infrastucture nobody will invade they can have a nuke built in 60 days .They will do alright even though they have no energy resources.
SA. They will do great .They have lots of oil they are going to sell it in a high price. No invasion will happen at their territory.
Overall . Big more powerful states are going to do much better.
Richer countries will do much better than poor ones.
The ultra rich no problems.
The rich will become poorer.
The poor will become slaves.
History will continue.
Mad max will happen but only in Africa.
Max will be black and will have aids.
What do you think ? _________________ IMHO great war will happen soon.
Start preparing now.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13174 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 2:24 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.
I don't see how category B will be "just fine" without jobs. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 2:43 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.
Ludi wrote:
I don't see how category B will be "just fine" without jobs.
They will have jobs.They will not have healthcare.Or healthcare will cover a small percentage of the expenses.
TreebeardsUncle I am not sure .
I think that the peak in conventional oil has already happened.
The peak in all liquids will be 5-10 years from now.
I think that the effect will require 1-15 years to become apparent.
So i think 6-25 years from now.My best guess 15 years from now. _________________ IMHO great war will happen soon.
Start preparing now.
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2330 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 2:50 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.
Whenever we do these predictions on how different regions will fare in the future, you can always tell where someone is from because they always think that their corner of the the world will be poorer, but "still ok" and that other regions will colapse and whatnot. I'd say that chris-h is from continental Europe. _________________ "That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 3:47 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.
Quote:
China They will just retool their exports for internal consumption.They have some oil and lots of coal big hydro and with most of the remaining manufacturing capacity in the world the only country able to mass produce renewables with ease after peak oil.
The huge population is extremely young and even children work. They have a huge surplus able to outbid everyone else for oil.They are a dictatorship can control their people and any excess baby girls can basically disappear a big advantage after peak oil.
A new superpower.
I don't think you have a good understanding of the Chinese economy. A very large portion of the surplus and wealth generation is driven by exports. These exports are sold primarily in the developed world (US, EU, Japan) although some portion go to other markets. If the mass consumer economies elsewhere collapse then the Chinese export industry collapses and you have mass unemployment. You can't just retool export industries for internal consumption because neither the demand nor the exchangeable wealth is there to absorb the supply. Lets say China has the factories to make 100 million DVD players per year that they are used to selling in the developed world. How many people in China can actually afford a DVD player or have any use for once? Per capita GDP is still only $7,000 and very unevenly distributed. Even with China's large population they will have massive overcapacity. The collapse of consumer exports will mean that China no longer has the surpluses to be as aggressive a bidder for oil as you assume.
Then you have to consider the agricultural side of the economy. China has benefitted from the Green revolution as much as anyone else. They employ a fair amount of mechanization in agriculture, as well as fertilizers and pesticides with a fossil fuel base. But unlike developed nations they have a much a lower production surplus relative to their population size. So as fossil fuel shortages lead to declines in agricultural productivity, food prices rise and food shortages may occur. We will see just how stable the Chinese dictatorship proves in the face of food shortages.
Joined: Mar 18, 2006 Posts: 1264 Location: Off with the Fey Folk
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 4:20 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.
chris-h wrote:
Overall . Big more powerful states are going to do much better.
Richer countries will do much better than poor ones.
The ultra rich no problems.
The rich will become poorer.
The poor will become slaves.
What do you think ?
So overall, no change then?
JPL _________________ I see a dark sail on the horizon
set under a black cloud that hides the sun.
Bring me my broadsword and clear understanding.
Bring me my cross of gold as a talisman.
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 5:03 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.
TigPil wrote:
A very large portion of the surplus and wealth generation is driven by exports. These exports are sold primarily in the developed world (US, EU, Japan) although some portion go to other markets. If the mass consumer economies elsewhere collapse then the Chinese export industry collapses and you have mass unemployment.
1) China is a communist state .Business failure does not mean uneployment.
2)In a period of 15 years that US,EU,Japan imports could collapse the chinese will not have time to adjust their economy ? Are you sure ?
3)What about more exports to rich oil producers ?
TigPil wrote:
You can't just retool export industries for internal consumption because neither the demand nor the exchangeable wealth is there to absorb the supply.
Demand not there ? Everybody likes more !
Wealth is not there ? Good let's increase people wages. Like henry ford did.
Because he wanted ford workers to be able to afford model-t he doubled their wages.
TigPil wrote:
Lets say China has the factories to make 100 million DVD players per year that they are used to selling in the developed world. How many people in China can actually afford a DVD player or have any use for once? Per capita GDP is still only $7,000 and very unevenly distributed.
A china dvd sells for $20 IF the factory does not pay IP to foreiners.
With IP it sells for $40.
A multinational does some quality control put a better plastic finish does brinwashing sorry advertising and sells the same player for $100
Yes i think that chinese can buy chinese dvd,
In fact chinese factory makes X good that cost Z
Western IP that will be IGNORED after peak oil increases the cost to Z+Z
The multinational changes plastic finish of X does some quality control and a lot of brainwashing sorry advertising put its logo and sells the same X stuff for
10*Z
The chinese certainly can afford everything they make at the chinese price of Z .
TigPil wrote:
China no longer has the surpluses to be as aggressive a bidder for oil as you assume.
What will happen to the massive surplus it already has ?
TigPil wrote:
Then you have to consider the agricultural side of the economy. China has benefitted from the Green revolution as much as anyone else. They employ a fair amount of mechanization in agriculture, as well as fertilizers and pesticides with a fossil fuel base. But unlike developed nations they have a much a lower production surplus relative to their population size. So as fossil fuel shortages lead to declines in agricultural productivity, food prices rise and food shortages may occur. We will see just how stable the Chinese dictatorship proves in the face of food shortages.
a) China is a communist state . It can use price controls.
It produces much more oil than is needed solely for agricoltural uses .China communist goverment will prioritise.
There will be no food shortages in China.
Chinise people instead will start to use bicycles again.
Also china is a one of the leader's in biotechnology. _________________ IMHO great war will happen soon.
Start preparing now.
Last edited by chris-h on Sat Jan 06, 2007 5:13 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Mar 18, 2006 Posts: 1264 Location: Off with the Fey Folk
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 5:10 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.
Kingcoal wrote:
Whenever we do these predictions on how different regions will fare in the future, you can always tell where someone is from because they always think that their corner of the the world will be poorer, but "still ok" and that other regions will colapse and whatnot. I'd say that chris-h is from continental Europe.
Actually I don't think this guy is from Europe. If he was he would think differently (or else he is very young).
We did the family 'annual' visit to my wife's grandmother a while ago. She sat our kids on her knee and told them about 'the war'.
She lived back then in a small farming community in the South-West of England, and the nearest city (Exeter - a small provincial nexus) was bombed in 1941. They lived 30 miles from the city itself.
She said about how everyone came out of their houses and the night sky was all light up. Then one of the grown-ups said - 'It's Exeter - it's burning. Just like the others. Get the children inside.'
Then they went there a few months later and the whole city had been wiped from the map by Hitler's planes.
I hate to breach board politic here but you 'Americans' have NO IDEA of how bad life can suddenly get, without warning, meaning, or direction, when the wheels fall of the wagon.
In my (adopted) home town in France there are no buildings in our town centre that are more than 60 years old. Town-hall, shops, apartment blocks, all have the same date on the foundation-stones - 1946.
Quote:
UK. A much much poorer country but they will survive unless the gulf stream shuts down.If in does then mad max.
Sorry. The world doesn't work that way. It changes faster, and in a more un-believable fashion, than you would think possible. Reason being: most, if not all, crises in the last 100 years were created in people's heads.
Do you think all that's suddenly going to change because of Peak Oil/Climate Change? Like people are suddenly going to think sensibly for the first time ever???
JPL _________________ I see a dark sail on the horizon
set under a black cloud that hides the sun.
Bring me my broadsword and clear understanding.
Bring me my cross of gold as a talisman.
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 5:15 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.
JPL wrote:
chris-h wrote:
Overall . Big more powerful states are going to do much better.
Richer countries will do much better than poor ones.
The ultra rich no problems.
The rich will become poorer.
The poor will become slaves.
What do you think ?
So overall, no change then?
JPL
That is right.
--------------------------------
JPL in place of Hitler who is going attact Europe now ? Russians ? Americans ? Chinese ?
----------------------------------- _________________ IMHO great war will happen soon.
Start preparing now.
Joined: Mar 18, 2006 Posts: 1264 Location: Off with the Fey Folk
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 5:55 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.
chris-h wrote:
JPL wrote:
chris-h wrote:
Overall . Big more powerful states are going to do much better.
Richer countries will do much better than poor ones.
The ultra rich no problems.
The rich will become poorer.
The poor will become slaves.
What do you think ?
So overall, no change then?
JPL
That is right.
JPL in place of Hitler who is going attact Europe now ? Russians ? Americans ? Chinese ?
Hi Chris - damn this interface - I had a nice brief reply worked out and now hit the reply button - your second line was obscured (I guess under HTML gumph.)
Anyhow - Europe IMHO has no strong desires right now - except that perhaps the rest of the world could leave us alone? The wars that wrecked our continent in the last century left all our nations with a common sense of purpose and a genuine desire to 'seek peace over war' in every sense.
Also, I think we have also learned humility. Certainly as regards 'continental' Europe, we have a good lifestyle, the land here is fertile (we have a net agricultural surplus) and we are also very 'Green'.
For-example, my home country of France consumes a-quarter per-head of the US Oil consumption but our life-style is just as affluent - with very little extra effort ;o)
To answer your question, well, I guess the Russians & the Chinese can go f**k themselves. We in Europe will be OK - we'll figure something out - we haven't the energy for a war, anyhow ;o
Americans will ALWAYS be welcome here - as you all well know. Your energy habits are a little tiresome but I'm sure you'll figure them out - if you need a hand, we'll give you what help we can ;o)
JPL _________________ I see a dark sail on the horizon
set under a black cloud that hides the sun.
Bring me my broadsword and clear understanding.
Bring me my cross of gold as a talisman.
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2330 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 6:16 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.
I have to agree with you, JPL, Americans have been spared any real hardship. While Europe was being bombed into rubble during WW2, the US was ramping up manufacturing to fight the war. The Twin Towers disaster was a blip in comparison.
I also agree with JPL’s assessment; “overall, no change.” Just look at history. _________________ "That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 9:11 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.
My Opinion:
China will implode, wealth is concentrated in the hands of few. There will be mass starvation, wars with India and Russia, not to mention rebels in Tibet. China is a house of cards that will fall rather quickly if peak oil hits. It will be in chaos and break into 3 or 4 other countries. Manchuria, Tibet, South China and North China.
Russia has the best opportunity for expansion at the expense of China.
India will also move against it lesser neighbors like Bangledesh, Pakistan and encourage Tibetian rebels.
Germany, France and England will keep Russia at bay in Europe.
The United States will face mass invasion from Mexico and could lose the southwest. Eastern US and Canada should be fine plenty of food, water and energy (tar sands, hydro and wind)
3rd world will return to high birth rates and high death rates.
All in all a world wide die off, with more poor than rich dying.
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 9:53 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.
chris-h wrote:
1) China is a communist state .Business failure does not mean uneployment.
2) What about more exports to rich oil producers ?
3) Demand not there ? Everybody likes more !
4) Wealth is not there ? Good let's increase people wages. Like henry ford did.
5) The chinese certainly can afford everything they make at the chinese price of Z .
6) What will happen to the massive surplus it already has ?
7) China is a communist state . It can use price controls.
It produces much more oil than is needed solely for agricoltural uses .China communist goverment will prioritise.
There will be no food shortages in China.
Chinise people instead will start to use bicycles again.
Ok I'm going to address the points you make above in order.
1) The successful side of China is the free market side and major economic growth only started in 1981 after privatizing certain enterprises. The economic history of China before 1981 speaks for itself (not to mention every other communist country in the 20th century). Just because a communist government can force full employment does not guarantee a successful or productive economy. Controlled economies are very poor at matching supply with demand.
2) The aggregate population of the future oil exporting countries is probably no more than 300 million and the distribution of wealth in those countries is extremely uneven. So we are talking about far fewer actual consumers than represented by the consumer base of the developed world.
3) Does everyone need 2, 3, or 4 DVD players? More of what? The point is China is currently geared to produce certain types of goods and increasing the quantity of those goods is of no incremental utility to consumers.
4) What Henry Ford did applied to a single company within a broader economy. If you increase wages across an economy as a whole without changing any other economic conditions that will simply lead to price inflation. More money chasing the same quantity of goods.
5) See my response to 3 above. You missed the point of my example. The Chinese have developed in such a way as to produce a product for global demand. They are producing consumer goods for 6 billion people (or whatever subset of those 6 billion can actually afford the item in question, my guess is 2 billion or less). Since per capita GDP in China is around $7,000, they still have a fair portion of their population engaged in subsistence farming. This means that they can produce for 2 billion but have an internal market for those goods of around 400 million. That means that you have 80% overcapacity in your production capacity and can layoff 80% of your workforce. But as soon as the unemployment rate jumps your demand pool contracts from 400 million to something lower and so on in a vicious cycle. And that is called an economic recession, or if it lasts long enough a depression.
6) China's massive surplus is invested in dollar denominated assets. Investing back in dollars and maintaining a large currency reserve helps China keep the yuan stable and their currency competitive in the export market. However, if the US economy collapses as you predict the dollar will weaken significantly and the US government may either default on or inflate its way out of some of its debts. So China's accumulated surplus may be ephemeral at best.
7) See point 1 about Chinese communist government and economic mismanagement. China does produce about 3 million barrels per day and consumes 6 million. If they do prioritize for food production then they can produce enough to feed their current population for the time being. But pumping 3 million barrels per day will deplete China's proved reserves within about 15 years, at which point China would need to import 100% of its oil or engage in coal to oil conversion. Also, Chinese agriculture is currently unsustainable and regions are experiencing falling water tables and soil erosion (a problem shared by farming practices in some parts of the developed world). I don't know the full extent of these problems but they could exacerbate a decline in Chinese food production.
Joined: Oct 16, 2004 Posts: 1281 Location: Brisbane, Australia
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 10:02 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil : Possible Fate of nations.
You lot are all hemispherist. There is a southern half to the planet as well. What to you see happening for S America and Australia? _________________ Kind regards, Katkinkate
"The ultimate goal of farming is not the growing of crops,
but the cultivation and perfection of human beings."
Masanobu Fukuoka
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