Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3758 Location: over here
Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 11:41 pm Post subject: What if China nationalizes all western assets?
It would be a huge blow to the western economy, but it would be almost legal as they are still a communist state. Any thoughts? Have western investors become blind for this danger? Are they waiting for the optimal moment to pull up the nets? _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1914 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 2:02 am Post subject: Re: What if China nationalizes all western assets?
Bas wrote:
It would be a huge blow to the western economy, but it would be almost legal as they are still a communist state. Any thoughts? Have western investors become blind for this danger? Are they waiting for the optimal moment to pull up the nets?
Well, its mostly yank money anyways....you Euros and us antipodeans are just way too small to play with the big yanks when it comes to global money making. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Dec 04, 2005 Posts: 186 Location: UK (Kent)
Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 9:02 am Post subject: Re: What if China nationalizes all western assets?
Bas wrote:
It would be a huge blow to the western economy, but it would be almost legal as they are still a communist state. Any thoughts? Have western investors become blind for this danger? Are they waiting for the optimal moment to pull up the nets?
It was be Christmas, new year, and the next 10 years worth of birthdays all rolled into one for the west. After the short term shortages were over then China would be left with billions of dollars worth of fast depreciating factories setup to produce goods for the west, and no customers and a real bad credit future.
On the other hand we'd be left with massive bills for building new factories but no so bad when you consider factories now are built with a five year or so lifespan anyway, the present would be no debts for all the consumer rubbish we've brought and the potential no doubt to confiscate Chinese foreign cash to make up the difference if needed which would be well justified.
Net result would be South America, Eastern Europe and local manufacturing (the last one would be a longterm bonus for us) all winning, a big hole appearing in the local asian economies that rely on both export and Chinese production to supply components and a worldwide recession while things got sorted out.
If the Chinese took such an action then I would expect war to quickly follow too, not started by the west but rather by desperation by the Chinese, they need raw materials to build the consumer rubbish to keep their population sedated, and without the money to buy them and in a world that probally would get very closed to them (Europe, Japan, South Korea and the US would be furious with them) the military option would look more tempting.
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2330 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 10:12 am Post subject: Re: What if China nationalizes all western assets?
I've noticed a fundamental difference between capitalistic and socialist thinking when it comes to ranking the importance of the customer. In capitalistic thinking, the customer is everything; the customer is always right, etc. In socialist thinking however, the customer is some fat capitalist pig who is dependant on and therefore at the mercy of the producer (worker.) I side with the capitalist pigs as history has shown that when other things being equal, they always win. Unless you have some fountain of money in your country (large oil fields like Russia or Venuezala), communism always fails. If you do have a money fountain, you can perpetuate your worker’s paradise, but fall behind in just about every measure of progress (example: Russia.)
To answer the question; who cares, China can do what it wants as long as it's willing to suffer the consequences. They can end up like Japan or end up like Russia - minus the oil! _________________ "That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4534 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 6:36 pm Post subject: Re: What if China nationalizes all western assets?
Well, for one, foreign direct investment would VANISH.
Billions upon billions of dollars that are flooding into China right now would dry up to a trickle.
And don't forget, factories (at least the kinds of factories that Americans are building in China) are cheap! It costs maybe 2 million dollars to build a large clothing factory in China. We are abandoning these things after 5 years once labor prices rise from 50 cents an hour to 75 cents.
The United States could legally sue China for stealing its assets or ignore the whole lawsuit process and just void all of those Chinese T-bills.
If American companies still dared to build their factories in that region of the world, India and Viet Nam would become the new manufactoring centers.
Basically, nationalizing all western assets would be a complete disaster for the PRC.
See Eddie_Lomax's comments. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3758 Location: over here
Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 11:37 pm Post subject: Re: What if China nationalizes all western assets?
Eddie_lomax wrote:
Bas wrote:
It would be a huge blow to the western economy, but it would be almost legal as they are still a communist state. Any thoughts? Have western investors become blind for this danger? Are they waiting for the optimal moment to pull up the nets?
It was be Christmas, new year, and the next 10 years worth of birthdays all rolled into one for the west. After the short term shortages were over then China would be left with billions of dollars worth of fast depreciating factories setup to produce goods for the west, and no customers and a real bad credit future.
On the other hand we'd be left with massive bills for building new factories but no so bad when you consider factories now are built with a five year or so lifespan anyway, the present would be no debts for all the consumer rubbish we've brought and the potential no doubt to confiscate Chinese foreign cash to make up the difference if needed which would be well justified.
Net result would be South America, Eastern Europe and local manufacturing (the last one would be a longterm bonus for us) all winning, a big hole appearing in the local asian economies that rely on both export and Chinese production to supply components and a worldwide recession while things got sorted out.
If the Chinese took such an action then I would expect war to quickly follow too, not started by the west but rather by desperation by the Chinese, they need raw materials to build the consumer rubbish to keep their population sedated, and without the money to buy them and in a world that probally would get very closed to them (Europe, Japan, South Korea and the US would be furious with them) the military option would look more tempting.
Thats my guess on possible events.
you have thought about this, thank you for sharing it, I think it's quite comprehensive. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3758 Location: over here
Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 11:45 pm Post subject: Re: What if China nationalizes all western assets?
americandream wrote:
Bas wrote:
It would be a huge blow to the western economy, but it would be almost legal as they are still a communist state. Any thoughts? Have western investors become blind for this danger? Are they waiting for the optimal moment to pull up the nets?
Well, its mostly yank money anyways....you Euros and us antipodeans are just way too small to play with the big yanks when it comes to global money making.
what's your problem? _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1914 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Wed Feb 07, 2007 12:47 am Post subject: Re: What if China nationalizes all western assets?
Bas wrote:
americandream wrote:
Bas wrote:
It would be a huge blow to the western economy, but it would be almost legal as they are still a communist state. Any thoughts? Have western investors become blind for this danger? Are they waiting for the optimal moment to pull up the nets?
Well, its mostly yank money anyways....you Euros and us antipodeans are just way too small to play with the big yanks when it comes to global money making.
what's your problem?
Your sheer stupidity! _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3758 Location: over here
Posted: Wed Feb 07, 2007 1:11 am Post subject: Re: What if China nationalizes all western assets?
those that do not ask are stupid. Now be on your way, you may yet be a jedi. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2007 5:48 am Post subject: Re: What if China nationalizes all western assets?
Kingcoal wrote:
I've noticed a fundamental difference between capitalistic and socialist thinking when it comes to ranking the importance of the customer. In capitalistic thinking, the customer is everything; the customer is always right, etc. In socialist thinking however, the customer is some fat capitalist pig who is dependant on and therefore at the mercy of the producer (worker.) I side with the capitalist pigs as history has shown that when other things being equal, they always win. Unless you have some fountain of money in your country (large oil fields like Russia or Venuezala), communism always fails. If you do have a money fountain, you can perpetuate your worker’s paradise, but fall behind in just about every measure of progress (example: Russia.)
To answer the question; who cares, China can do what it wants as long as it's willing to suffer the consequences. They can end up like Japan or end up like Russia - minus the oil!
In capitalism, only those with money are right. And of course, oil has only been found in 'communist' countries javascript:emoticon(''). (Disclaimer: me not being impressed with capitalism does not imply that I support dictatorships)
Posted: Fri May 18, 2007 6:53 am Post subject: Re: What if China nationalizes all western assets?
The Chinese wont nationalize foreign companies,but may make a situation where the Chinese government can "buy" these companies for pennies on the dollar in the near future.
Thats probably what is in the cards for the western investments in China.
I was reading how they are diversifying into resource companies.
They dont buy oil,they buy oil wells.They dont buy copper,they buy copper mines,rubber factories,Etc,etc.
So if a global economic crisis came about the Chinese will most likely diversify this way to make up the difference for their falling dollar reserves,and since they are in a position to manipulate the global economy,this could happen in aq big way and very suddenly if they chose to do so.
The thing is,is that the Chinese havent really yet shown to what degree they can manipulate the world economy yet.
In other words,they havent shown their full might.
But they will. _________________ ΜΟΛΩΝ-ΛΑΒΕ
Posted: Fri May 18, 2007 7:59 am Post subject: Re: What if China nationalizes all western assets?
Tyler_JC wrote:
The United States could legally sue China for stealing its assets or ignore the whole lawsuit process and just void all of those Chinese T-bills.
This is a good point. The question becomes are the foriegn held assets in China worth $1 trillion dollars. I doubt it. And that's just US debt, I don't know how much of others debt China might hold.
Nation building is a long and complicated game, and I think China might be winning.
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4534 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Fri May 18, 2007 11:05 am Post subject: Re: What if China nationalizes all western assets?
meekoil wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
The United States could legally sue China for stealing its assets or ignore the whole lawsuit process and just void all of those Chinese T-bills.
This is a good point. The question becomes are the foriegn held assets in China worth $1 trillion dollars. I doubt it. And that's just US debt, I don't know how much of others debt China might hold.
Nation building is a long and complicated game, and I think China might be winning.
China's economy is highly unstable and remember, they are growing from a very small base (compared to the USA and the EU).
Last year, America's economy grew more than China's economy in real terms (not % terms).
Also don't forget that China's economy must grow at leat 7% a year in order to provide employment for its people. Read some of the other threads in the Economics forum about the problems in China's economy before assuming that they are about to take over the world.
Everyone assumed we'd be speaking Japanese by now in the late 1980s.
But now, Japan is suffering from the effects of a decade long recession and very heavy debt loads. All bubbles eventually pop and China is not immune. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Posted: Fri May 18, 2007 9:17 pm Post subject: Re: What if China nationalizes all western assets?
Kingcoal wrote:
I've noticed a fundamental difference between capitalistic and socialist thinking when it comes to ranking the importance of the customer. In capitalistic thinking, the customer is everything; the customer is always right, etc. In socialist thinking however, the customer is some fat capitalist pig who is dependant on and therefore at the mercy of the producer (worker.) I side with the capitalist pigs as history has shown that when other things being equal, they always win. Unless you have some fountain of money in your country (large oil fields like Russia or Venuezala), communism always fails. If you do have a money fountain, you can perpetuate your worker’s paradise, but fall behind in just about every measure of progress (example: Russia.)
To answer the question; who cares, China can do what it wants as long as it's willing to suffer the consequences. They can end up like Japan or end up like Russia - minus the oil!
Capitalism, like Communism, fails, because both ideologies are incompatible with human nature. Socialist democracies, that blend competition with cooperation or some facsimile, do best.
I'd like to see China nationalize MalWart. The greeter could tell everyone to f' off, then direct them to the cafeteria where they'd have to wait an hour to get an ersatz chocolate shake, before lining up to take their cart down each half empty aisle.
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'). (Disclaimer: me not being impressed with capitalism does not imply that I support dictatorships)
