2007 Discoveries

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3847

Here is a list of oil discoveries announced in 2007. This list comes from the archive at Alexander's Gas and Oil Connections (gasandoil.com) who collects this stuff.

As in previous years, I have listed separately the test well announcements from the "field size" announcements. Typically the ASPO numbers, which are posted about this time of year are pretty similar to the "field size" numbers.

For 2007, there were 18.2 gb of new discoveries announced, of which 9 consisted of the big offshore find in the Gulf of Mexico. Aspo's estimate will say about 15-16 gb of oil. My methodology is that when someone announces a test well, I make an estimate of the pumping life of the well and count that as a reserve. ASPO typically counts the announcements if they give an estimate for the field size only. This probably amounts to double counting on my part. But since I did it this way the last two years, I am consistent.

Also note that the big field in the gulf was announced as something like "3 to 15 gb of oil" which means there is a lot of uncertainty as to how much they can get out of the hole. If Reservegrowthrulz was here, he would tell you that most of these have the potential to be a lot different from the original announcement. So, take these numbers with a grain of salt.

So I guess the moral of the story is: We still only found about half as much oil as we consumed, even by getting really lucky and running into a big find in the GOM. Also, the idea of higher prices really has driven people to go around the world drilling holes, since discoveries appear to have increased the last three years. But, this is still not enough to make up for current consumption.

Let the chips fall where they may.

Here is the list:

Taskforce_Unity · Posted: Thu Feb 01, 2007 6:21 pm Post subject: Re: 2007 Discoveries

your 2004 and 2005 numbers are quite accurate Pup55, with a 15% error margin of what IHS Energy reports! Smile

2006 was a good year for discovery, including Jack (in the order of 400 million barrels). The extra drilling effort seems to pay off. Interestingly, finds in China were very low while they are drilling like made.

Thx for the insight!

grink1tt3n · Posted: Thu Feb 01, 2007 6:44 pm Post subject: Re: 2007 Discoveries

I know it's impossible to know, but it'd be great to have:

1. the potential rate of extraction for each field
2. best time to till extraction startup

rockdoc123 · Light Sweet Crude Joined: May 16, 2005 Posts: 1713

I'm assuming these are BOE because most are gas discoveries. The numbers look high to me so I would like to check them with some of my other sources (IHS and WoodMac).

Looks wildly optimistic from what I remember seeing a couple of weeks ago in a presentation that Ian Cross from IHS gave. But I could be wrong and need to check.

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3847

nth · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Feb 24, 2005 Posts: 1976

Excellent data gathering.

A rule of thumb is to say for every billion barrels proven reserve will equal 200kbpd. As others pointed out, this is not accurate at all, but just a way to guess what the production maybe like.

Another one of these wild rule of thumb is to use 8-12 years time frame from discovery to production.

It used to be 5-7 years, but due to equipment and personnel shortages this have lengthen to 6-8 years. Industry estimates project the lengthening to continue, so that is why I use 8-12 years. Please do note that in 2009-12 deep drilling rigs will most likely increase by 50% to almost double current fleet. Also note that almost all these ships are already under contract despite the fact they are only on paper and shipyard had not completed.

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3847

nth · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Feb 24, 2005 Posts: 1976

nth · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Feb 24, 2005 Posts: 1976

2006 oil and gas discovery survey

Here is something for you to cross reference.
I will await for your list of 2007 discoveries next year.

khebab · Moderator Joined: Sep 27, 2004 Posts: 935 Location: Canada

A few recent ones:

China, Tahe field in Xinjiang: 7.462 kbpd

Angola, Block 31 (offshore, BP): 3.822 kbpd
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PWALPOCO · Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 7:21 am Post subject: Re: 2007 Discoveries

My recollection is that the USGS analysis future oil discoveries is the basis for various agencies and organisations assumptions about future oil production.

With that in mind, and knowing that 2007 has so far been a good year how is the discovery rate shaping up with the USGS expectations ?

Paul
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All that it takes for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.

Dan1195 · Heavy Crude Joined: Mar 19, 2005 Posts: 277

If you examine the discovery graph by year, within the overall downward spiral there are a string of very bad years and then a couple of"not as bad years". This is one of those latter years. Of course they had to go to extreme deepwater and well depth to get most of it, but the cornucopians will tell the masses "see, there is still plenty of oil.....

As mentioned above some of these finds, Jack in particular will have a very long lead do to lack of equipment and shortages. Hurricanes can pose of problem of course also in the GOM

nth · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Feb 24, 2005 Posts: 1976

For me, a good year means we discover more oil than we use.
As far as I can tell, 2007 is not going to be a good year.
I don't even remember when was the last good year according to my definition. It must be like in the 1970's.