Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: May 06, 2006 Posts: 873 Location: Tustin, CA
Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 1:18 am Post subject: Bicycle Riders of the Future.
Knowing what you know now, what kind of bicycle would you recommend people get before PeakOil (or post PostOil, believing we are already there)?
I have been a rider for the last 47 years, mostly on conventional, single speed American Bicycles, (Schwinns, I was a paper Boy for 6 years). Although in the 70’s I did upgrade to a steel frame Italian road bike, 12 speed derailleur, (I don’t remember the name) that I put couple of thousand miles on.
There are amazing carbon component type bikes available today that did not exist even 15 years ago. But the problem I see in these bikes in the long term, is if the frames crack as I’ve heard they do in the long run. Then you are “shi*t” out of luck. Most touring bike experts I have read indicate you should look for a Steel frame bike because if anything goes wrong with the frame, you can always get a local welder to fix it.
Currently I own a 16 year old Schwinn Steel butted frame 12 speed Road Bike, and a Schwinn Mesa (aluminum frame) Mountain Bike. I ride the Mountain Bike every day to work right now, and the 12 speed road on the weekends.
For the long term I have considered the Trek 520 steel frame triple crank touring bike, or building my own based on the Surly steel frame, you can read about on the web. Steel frames have a reputation for lasting longer and being less trouble.
I know there are people reading this who have far more experience in building and servicing bicycles than I have. But consider the post peak world I’m interested in. Will Carbon or Fiber type materials be available? Maybe the best designed Bike is the Chinese made, steel framed, “Flying Pigeon”. _________________ Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
Last edited by SILENTTODD on Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 4:13 am Post subject: Re: Bicycle Riders of the Future.
They way you formulate the question I get a hunch you belive it will be impossible to get a bicycle after peak oil?
Maybe more expensive, I'll grant you that, but I wonder if you really belive new bicycles will be totally unavailable?
If you melt a standard SUV, how much steel for new bikes would that give you? Ten? 20? You don't need a whole lot of wind or hydrolectric power to melt steel to a couple million bikes each year.
Bikes will be around unless you expect everybody to drop all their nukes and create a mad-max world. Even then I'd expect handy people to make new bikes if there are any people left.
Joined: Apr 14, 2006 Posts: 3 Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 4:39 am Post subject: Re: Bicycle Riders of the Future.
SILENTTODD wrote:
Most touring bike experts I have read indicate you should look for a Steel frame bike because if anything goes wrong with the frame, you can always get a local welder to fix it.
This is no longer 100% true for many contemporary steel frames. Often they are designed with high-tech steel alloys and butted tubing, with tight fitting tolerances which require the latest in welding technology to fit and join together. All this makes for steel frames which are right up there with modern aluminium or carbon fibre frames as far as weight and stiffness goes, but you're kidding yourself if you were to think they're just as repairable as the good old steel bikes of yesteryear.
And then there are guys like this -- www.gripsport.com.au -- who can and will fix just about anything. I've seen this guy work and he is a genius.
If I were to get a bike put together with a view to being indestructible, I'd go to a local frame builder and get something custom specified with easy frame repair and maintenance as the #1 design priority. I have no doubt something like a Surly steel frame is very repairable, but there is no substitute for knowing exactly how the frame is designed and built, right down to the millimetre and tenth of a degree, the tubing type (and metallurgical properties to find a generic replacement should it be necessary) and length, lug type and design, weld type, pattern and procedure, etc.
Quote:
Will Carbon a Fiber type materials be available? Maybe the best designed Bike is the Chinese made, steel framed, “Flying Pigeon”.
The fibre material and epoxy resins require very high-tech, very energy intensive processes to make the raw materials and build them into something workable as a bike frame. One nice thing about carbon fibre is that exactly because of its inability to be repaired in any way, they are often massively over-engineered and can put up with a lot more day-to-day stresses than any metallic material could.
I have a very nice carbon fibre road bike that weighs almost nothing, but I have no illusions as to its long term future in an energy starved world. But it's not the frame I'd be immediately concerned about; I know that barring a catastrophe it's good for at least 15 years. It's the conventional consumables; the drivetrain parts, braking system, even wheel components. This is stuff that WILL wear out in a matter of a few years (if not sooner), and require just as much precision in manufacture.
If I was really wanting to make an Apocalypse Bike, along with the custom steel frame I'd go retro by a couple of decades: friction shifters, few speeds in the back (if any), 36 spoke wheels, etc. And don't forget a heap of spare parts! Then again I'm spoilt with decadence when it comes to cycling; instead of go retro from the beginning, I'd rather collect a strategic stockpile of current (or near-current) era drivetrain parts
In a world of 10-speed drivetrains, hydraulic brakes and carbon wheels, 8-speed drivetrain components, rim brakes and steel spoke/alloy rims (and the like) are cheap as chips and very high quality... it's incredible just how cheap it all is. For US$1000, one could buy enough modest modern components, consumables and what have you to keep cycling for 100,000km without any worry. (I'm enough of a bike geek to take this as a "online window-shopping challenge".. ahh, maybe some time when I'm not so busy at work )
It's a nice thought to ponder as you see the "Sir Hummer McCredit" types fork over many times that much, for the latest fad in wheel rims, or whatever..
Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 7:44 am Post subject: Re: Bicycle Riders of the Future.
I can't help but think that a Surly single will be darned reliable and easy to fix over the long term.
Right now I have a steel fixed-gear I built up out of an old steel hybrid frame that is pretty indestructable. I think it would be a good apocalypse bike.
Joined: Jun 05, 2005 Posts: 365 Location: Portland Oregon, USA
Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 10:28 am Post subject: Re: Bicycle Riders of the Future.
Silenttodd,
Thanks for starting this thread. Bicycling is an integral part of my PO preparations, such as they are. There is NO downside to biking as much as you can in our current millieu, and it will only be more logical as energy gets more expensive (not to mention the health benefits, no CO2 emmissions, less road rage, etc).
I like the idea of sticking with steel frames for the reasons you mentioned.
I think that investing some time to be a competant bike mechanic will pay in spades. I hope to take a couple classes at our local bike shop so I feel more comfortable tuning family's bikes. I see this as an essential skill in the decades to come, not to mention one that you can barter with!
As for what type of bike to have, consider investing the money in an Xtracycle (Xtracycle.com). I have one and I love it. I put a child's seat on it and can carry my 3 year old AND my 6 year old at the same time (with her sitting on the "snap deck" comfortably and safely), WITH 4 bags of groceries. I switched to this set-up after the kids outgrew the bike trailer and like it so much better. It is the Post Peak Oil family sedan.
Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 10:53 am Post subject: Re: Bicycle Riders of the Future.
I bought an aluminum framed mountain bike three years ago and rode it almost everywhere I went. Last year the frame developed a crack and I had to replace it. I bought a Surly Crosscheck (steel frame) and I'm very happy with it. Cyclocross bikes are nice for me in that I can put thin road wheels on them (majority of my riding) but they also have enough clearance for more rugged mountain bike style tires.
In regards to frame materials, I would definitely recommend steel. It has benefits which you've already outlined. I don't necessarily have anything against the other materials (including aluminum, even though it cracked on me) except for carbon fiber. My perception is that carbon fiber is very much a racing material for bikes. It's great for racers or high end recreational riding because it's light and helps you to go faster, but those are about the only people who should be buying. The material just isn't durable at all. If you are thinking about frame materials for a bike you plan to depend on for transportation (rather than recreation) you really shouldn't be considering carbon fiber, especially in light of Peak Oil. _________________ In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche
Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine
History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4908 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 10:56 am Post subject: Re: Bicycle Riders of the Future.
Go with steel. From all the reading i've done, its the best material to use. Carbon is getting cheaper, but is still expensive, unrepairable for all that i know. Al is waaay to stiff riding for me and i doubt would last half as long as steel.
Consider a lot of extra tires and tubes...those are the things that might be of value! _________________ Clothing should be optional.
Joined: Jun 30, 2005 Posts: 766 Location: northern California
Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 11:29 am Post subject: Re: Bicycle Riders of the Future.
Mountain bikes are the only practical version of bicycles for the future, when road maintenance begins to lag, then stop entirely. The fatter tires can deal more effectively with road surface irregularities and a rider can abandon roads entirely when necessary.
Yes, a stockpile of the less durable components would be a wise investment. Full width knobby tires with black walls instead of brown or gum walls will not deteriorate as fast from light and ozone. Store tires and extra tubes in the cellar, away from heat and light. Drive train parts like chains and freewheels would also be good to have, even for barter. Avoid bikes with shocks--too heavy and besides we'll be riding much more slowly on bad or no roads, not racing. Shocks need extra maintenance too. Add duct tape to the bicycle parts/tools stash, as it can make a ruined tire go. _________________ "When men yield up the privilege of thinking, the last shadow of liberty quits the horizon."
Thomas Paine
Joined: Jun 05, 2005 Posts: 365 Location: Portland Oregon, USA
Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 11:35 am Post subject: Re: Bicycle Riders of the Future.
MD,
Agreed. But why would you want speed with an Xtracycle? If it's your workhorse, speed won't be as important. I've heard about the electrical mechanical assist motors but haven't really seen the use for them (again, 2 kids, 4 bags of groceries). In the post-peak wasteland, I think the electrical assist would be a liability for repair purposes.
-IanC
PS: Doomerporn: if speed IS a concern due to bogies riding after you on your Xtracycle with slings and primative bows, the Xtracyle comfortably accomodates an adult sitting on the snapdeck who could sit backwards and take carefully aimed shots with crossbow, in effect riding "shotgun".
Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3542 Location: On the ball
Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 1:03 pm Post subject: Re: Bicycle Riders of the Future.
IanC wrote:
MD,
Agreed. But why would you want speed with an Xtracycle? If it's your workhorse, speed won't be as important. I've heard about the electrical mechanical assist motors but haven't really seen the use for them (again, 2 kids, 4 bags of groceries). In the post-peak wasteland, I think the electrical assist would be a liability for repair purposes.
-IanC
PS: Doomerporn: if speed IS a concern due to bogies riding after you on your Xtracycle with slings and primative bows, the Xtracyle comfortably accomodates an adult sitting on the snapdeck who could sit backwards and take carefully aimed shots with crossbow, in effect riding "shotgun".
I'm not looking for speed from hub motors. I am looking for load capacity and range. With a 24" hub motor you won't get more that 12-15mph. Maintenance is almost nill on a brushless system except if you blow up the controller they aren't easily hand-fixable. A brush motor direct dc system is easy as could be and you can even be inventive with your repair strategies. Plus if you can afford solar panel chargers you can ride for almost free for many years. The batteries become the biggest challenge, in that case. _________________ "It's still all about energy!"
Joined: Jun 05, 2005 Posts: 365 Location: Portland Oregon, USA
Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 1:27 pm Post subject: Re: Bicycle Riders of the Future.
MD,
Cool. I'll look into those!
-IanC
EDIT: okay, I just did. Retail is about $1000 for a BionX conversion kit. I think I'll spend my money on a bike maintenance class and buying another bike to loan to a friend when I need to haul a lot of stuff. We'll all be in this together, so we might as well start helping eachother!
Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 3:02 pm Post subject: Re: Bicycle Riders of the Future.
Wallpaper magazine has just awarded its best bike distinction to the Paris Condor...
Kind of a simple sports bike with no gears, design dating to 1947.
In the chaotic future this might be the ticket to reliable transportation... simple steel frame and no mountain bike pretentiousness (which robs of speed on flat surfaces) while keeping a nice allure.
Joined: Jun 05, 2005 Posts: 365 Location: Portland Oregon, USA
Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 3:35 pm Post subject: Re: Bicycle Riders of the Future.
I googled the Paris Condor and it looks great - simple, strong, light.
It retails at about $1400 (1100 pounds). Wow. This has got to be just for the cache of a retro bike. You'd think it would be a lot less with the simple style and stripped-down parts.
Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3542 Location: On the ball
Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 4:37 pm Post subject: Re: Bicycle Riders of the Future.
Try www.goldenmotor.com. The $175 kit will work. The electronics are relatively simple.
Since there is only one moving part and one transfer of power, hub motors are inherently very quiet and efficient.
This version uses a brushed motor instead of brushless so it does require some routine maintenance. You must keep the commutator dry and clean or you will have breakdowns.
For your $175 you will also not get regenerative braking. The value of regeneration can be very marginal in certain applications, anyway.
One thing you can do with this setup that you can't with the Bionix:
You can direct connect the motor(though a switch, please) to the battery and it will run.
You can also run the 36v motor on 12vdc or 24vdc. You just lose torque at lower voltage. _________________ "It's still all about energy!"
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