Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
There is some evidence of a very slight acceleration in November of a process of declining production that was ongoing throughout the second half of 2006 (and in to January of this year). This excess decline does not exceed 200 thousand barrels per day. On the whole, media coverage of OPEC production cuts appears to be almost completely unmoored from the data the agencies are reporting. The entire "production cut" may be a public relations exercise to disguise other processes.
Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 10:26 am Post subject: Re: The Oil Drum: Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006
Shocking. Simply shocking. _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 10:42 am Post subject: Re: The Oil Drum: Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006
"There is nothing to see here, folks. Production is increasing faster than you or can I imagine. Soon, the whole world will be awash in $5 Saudi oil. Just you wait!" _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 11:09 am Post subject: Re: The Oil Drum: Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006
The Saudis themselves said last year that they had an 8% decline in their existing fields. A lot of people didn't believe them. They didn't mean it, it was reported incorrectly, the translation was suspect, etc.
I think Stuart's work shows we can believe them, at least on that point. _________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 3066 Location: The Urban Village
Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 11:10 am Post subject: Re: The Oil Drum: Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006
emersonbiggins wrote:
"There is nothing to see here, folks. Production is increasing faster than you or can I imagine. Soon, the whole world will be awash in $5 Saudi oil. Just you wait!"
That guy always cheers me up.
Seriously, the price is remarkably stable given cantarell and now this news about saudi. What gives ? We will know much more if the price spikes this summer due to hurricanes, war, or whatever and production continues down.
Joined: Feb 06, 2006 Posts: 166 Location: passaic, new jersey
Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 11:30 am Post subject: Re: The Oil Drum: Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006
the problem with Saudi decline will be different than past declines, they have the best technology for optimum efficiency so the can have good extraction rates pretty much right to the end
after that poof
at least it seems to me that way from reading those forums, i'm not an export
Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 11:48 am Post subject: Re: The Oil Drum: Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006
I said some time back that Bush/Cheney "outed" Valeri Plame because the CIA operation she was a part of was no longer needed. What was that operation? She was a CIA operative acting as a "private energy analyst" for a company called Brewster and Jennings.
Quote:
Due to the nature of her clandestine work for the CIA, details about Plame's professional career are still classified. While undercover, she described herself as an "energy analyst" for the private company "Brewster Jennings & Associates", which the CIA later acknowledged was a front company for certain investigations. According to Boston Globe reporters Ross Kerber and Bryan Bender, who searched for "Brewster Jennings" in Dunn & Bradstreet, the New Jersey operator of commercial databases, "Brewster Jennings" first entered D&B records on May 22, 1994; but, when contacted directly, D&B personnel would not discuss the source of the filing. Although D&B records list the company as a "legal services office," located at 101 Arch Street, Boston, Massachusetts, given the CIA's later acknowledgment and the dead end reached by Kerber and Bender in their attempts to learn more about it, one does doubt that Plame actually "worked" for it.[7]
Valerie Plame was identified as a NOC by Elisabeth Bumiller, in an article published in the New York Times on 5 October 2003:
But within the C.I.A., the exposure of Ms. Plame is now considered an even greater instance of treachery. Ms. Plame, a specialist in non-conventional weapons who worked overseas, had "nonofficial cover", and was what in C.I.A. parlance is called a NOC, the most difficult kind of false identity for the agency to create. While most undercover agency officers disguise their real profession by pretending to be American embassy diplomats or other United States government employees, Ms. Plame passed herself off as a private energy expert. Intelligence experts said that NOCs have especially dangerous jobs.[8]
Supposedly, the damage done by outing Plame comprised US efforts to infiltrate the hush hush top secret world of oil secrets - which, we all know, and the GAO is now reporting, no one wants to reveal.
Quote:
Compounding the damage, the front company, Brewster-Jennings & Associates, the name of which has been reported previously, apparently also was used by other CIA officers whose work now could be at risk, according to Vince Cannistraro, former CIA chief of counterterrorism operations and analysis. Now, Plame's career as a covert operations officer in the CIA's Directorate of Operations is over. Those she dealt with -- on business or not -- may be in danger. The directorate is conducting an extensive damage assessment. And Plame's exposure may make it harder for American spies to persuade foreigners to share important secrets with them, U.S. intelligence officials said.
Keep in mind that PO poster Shakespear, who is an oil resevoir engineer, felt confident that all the data necessary to understand all Saudi Oil production could fit in a single CD, and that the CIA could easily have access to it.
Thus, I conclude that the US has known for quite some time the periless nature of the world oil situation, that Plame's operation was no longer needed as we already had the info we needed, and that as Klare and others have said, the world is entering a period of resource wars, the war in Iraq which was just the first shot. Watch also the development of the SCO (members Russia and China, possibly Iran) formed to protect Caspian oil interest from "terrorist attack."
So, again, it seems the above analysis at the Oildrum simply confirms what the powers that be have known for some time, and foreshadowed in Cheney's infamous 1999 speech that by 2010, the world would have to replace 80% of its oil with new finds.
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3904 Location: over here
Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 11:56 am Post subject: Re: The Oil Drum: Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006
master_rb wrote:
i'm not an export
While not being an export myself, I'm not an import either
on topic: ofcourse these decline rates are nothing more than educated guesses at this point, we'll only be able to tell the real decline rates when SA finally allows an independent audit of it's oil industry/reserves. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 12:10 pm Post subject: Re: The Oil Drum: Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006
Bas wrote:
when SA finally allows an independent audit of it's oil industry/reserves.
So that would be ... never...
This is rather disturbing. What did the Hirsch report predict was the outcome of having no time to mitigate?
-G _________________ I Have and will continue to vote against ANY politician who supports the various bailouts. Curse you for selling out our future for status quo now!
Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 12:46 pm Post subject: Re: The Oil Drum: Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006
Before we all get the tinfoil hats on, let me point out that profgoose and others would have reached exactly the same conclusion if they had taken the data in about December of 2001. In fact, Saudi production went from 9 mbpd to about 7, which is close to 20% during 2001.
In other words, it is not abnormal for the Saudis to act as the swing supplier to support the price in situations that call for it.
The data shows a decline last year. The question is: was it intentional or not? The second question is: if demand shoots up (like it is going to in a month or so) do they still have the capability to produce at 9.5 or 10 mbpd like they did during the last shortage regime?
Let us resurrect this thread in about June and see what the situation is.
Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 12:57 pm Post subject: Re: The Oil Drum: Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006
pup, you're wrong, because you're only looking at part of the data:
The rig count was nowhere near as high then as it is now, and KSA was not beyond the 50% mark on HL linearization then like it is now.
It's the whole picture that's troubling, and it's never looked even remotely like this before. _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 3255 Location: St.Louis, Mo
Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 1:04 pm Post subject: Re: The Oil Drum: Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006
killJOY wrote:
pup, you're wrong, because you're only looking at part of the data:
The rig count was nowhere near as high then as it is now, and KSA was not beyond the 50% mark on HL linearization then like it is now.
It's the whole picture that's troubling, and it's never looked even remotely like this before.
So very true. All you have to do is see the graph of their rig count. They are in panick mode, and still declining. I hope people really do not believe that their rate of decline is voluntary. As Mathew Simmons says, " ". Oh hell, I forgot what he said, but it wasn't good.
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