Ask The Experts: Intro.

Aaron · Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2004 5:34 pm Post subject: Ask The Experts: Intro.

I thought a thread focused on developing a list of questions from the public, to be submitted to experts in hydrocarbon depletion might be a better approach than a single reporter making up questions.

We have a well educated and active roster which grows daily. You folks compile a list of "ask the expert" questions, and I'll work on getting access to some experts.

I have messaged with the president of ASPO Kjell Aleklett a couple of times, so I'll explore submitting a list to Colin Campbell and team. Also Matt Simmons offices here in Houston, so I'll see if there is any interest there as well.

Any other suggestions are welcome.
_________________
"We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time." - TS Eliot*

EnviroEngr · Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2004 5:39 pm Post subject: Good Deal...

Can you give us an outline of things they're willing to entertain and some sense of the level of priority they'll give to each item?

I've got some questions regarding Theoretical Aspects and some regarding Empirical Data.
_________________
--------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
--------------------------------
(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
____________________________

Aaron · Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2004 1:00 pm Post subject:

The idea is to create a better mouse trap so to speak...

List any questions you have and let's see if we can get them submitted to various people.
_________________
"We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time." - TS Eliot*

tkn317071 · Heavy Crude Joined: May 29, 2004 Posts: 106

my question would be to Campbell, et al.

I know they published an argument as to why the USGS estimates for reserves are grossly overstated...my question is have they received a counter argument from the USGS defending their estimates or does the USGS accept Campbell's et al argument?

EnviroEngr · Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2004 9:22 am Post subject: Question 1.

OK.

Here's the theoretical question I've got:

Imagine I'm standing on a square piece of land that's 25 miles long on each side. I want to know if there's a detectable amount of crude oil anywhere between the surface and the mantle. How (by what means, technology and/or methods) can I be 95 to 99% certain that there isn't any oil there? Assume for now that the surface profile doesn't vary by any more than 100 feet.

Metric Conversions: 25 miles = 40.234 km; 100 ft. = 30.48 m
_________________
--------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
--------------------------------
(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
____________________________

Aaron · Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2004 10:58 am Post subject: excellent

keep em coming!

I submitted the oil discovery question to a friend in that field... working.

When we have a decent list of original questions, I'll forward them to Kjell @ ASPO and see what we get.
_________________
"We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time." - TS Eliot*

nero · Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2004 11:12 am Post subject:

My Questions for the experts (perhaps for the economists):

Does oil production respond to price signals? Or is it the other way around and is the price determined by oil supply? There seems to be good empirical evidence that in the short term oil supply(opec) determines the price. Is there good empirical evidence that production responds to price signals.

Are the big integrated oil companies able to increase their oil production in response to the oil price set by OPEC? I know they don't have shut in capacity but are they able to ramp up exploration and development success in response to an extended period of high prices?

EnviroEngr · Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2004 11:18 am Post subject: Mtrl Actg

Very good, then.

On the empirical side, the question is this:

I have a graphical simulation program on my computer that shows my oil field, the pipes extracting the oil, the pipes pumping in displacement (water), the storage tanks, the loading dock and the tanker loading pipes.

Engineering mass balance is frequently used to average out [make negligible] variations in density, compressibility, meter limits and other measurement constraints.

In reality (keeping in stride with Matthew Simmons), how is physical material accounting done real-time in the field so that my computer monitor shows actual, reliable numbers in each transition-point box? [assume any and all metering devices function at a 99.95% or higher accuracy over their useful service life.]

OR, what is the uncertainty level, real-time, in the amount of crude (by weight or volume) at all points in the system?
_________________
--------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
--------------------------------
(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
____________________________

dmtu · Posted: Wed Jun 16, 2004 7:59 am Post subject:

Aaron · Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2004 5:45 am Post subject: bump

Despite anemic response to this thread, I'm going to submit these questions along with a batch of my own to Kjell @ ASPO and some other experts soon...

Last chance...
_________________
"We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time." - TS Eliot*

dmtu · Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2004 7:40 am Post subject:

If given 15 minutes to present peak oil to the G8 leaders, What would they (the experts) say? Or have they already had their say?

It's a given that most people either view peak as another conspiracy theory or unworthy news. What would they say to these people?

For Kjell

The time-line presented by the ASPO has bounced around some. If kjell had to make an assumption about time-line movements for the future, would he predict peak to come sooner or later than the current estimate?

WaterBearer · Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2004 9:48 am Post subject:

If Peak Oil really is as disastrously dangerous to our way of life as we have become accustomed to hearing from ASPO members, should we assume that recent and current geopoltical movements and objectives of major oil consumers such as the US are reflective of Peak Oil's inevitibility, or in ignorance thereof?

EnviroEngr · Posted: Mon Jun 21, 2004 10:53 am Post subject: One More Quicky

Richard brought this up and he mentioned it was discussed briefly in Berlin a few weeks ago:

"Assuming other energy sources can be brought on-line, what would it take in each nation-bloc/continent to modify its infrastructure to accommodate?"

"Will the necessity of this level of investment become a major deterrent to making the required changes in ____________? [fill in the country]"
_________________
--------------------------------
| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
--------------------------------
(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
____________________________

Aaron · Posted: Wed Jun 23, 2004 6:26 am Post subject: Here is the current question list

Greetings,

Thanks for your time in reviewing these questions.

1. The methodology for estimating potential discoveries of oil is expressed by the USGS in F5, F50, & F95 probabilities. Given the decline in significant new discoveries of oil in recent history, is averaging F5 & F95 predictions still a valid approach for determining the mean estimate?

2. I have a simulation program on my computer that shows my oil field, the pipes extracting the oil, the pipes pumping in displacement (water), the storage tanks, the loading dock and the tanker loading pipes.

Engineering mass balance is frequently used to average out [make negligible] variations in density, compressibility, meter limits and other measurement constraints.

In reality, how is physical material accounting done real-time in the field so that my computer monitor shows actual, reliable numbers in each transition-point box? Assuming any and all metering devices function at a 99.95% or higher accuracy over their useful service life.

3. Imagine I'm standing on a square piece of land that's 25 miles long on each side. I want to know if there's a detectable amount of crude oil anywhere between the surface and the mantle. How (by what means, technology and/or methods) can I be 95 to 99% certain that there isn't any oil there? Assume for now that the surface profile doesn't vary by any more than 100 feet.

4. Abiotic oil formation. Fact or Fiction?

5. How thoroughly explored is Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Persian Gulf for potential oil fields?

6. Is Ghawar in terminal decline, or is it even possible to know?
http://www.newcolonist.com/ghawar.html

7. Does any public data exist supporting Saudi claims for sustained production increases through 2050?

8. Does pressure injection and horizontal drilling affect the depletion rate of an oil field? If so, by how much?

9. Are there any large new oil discoveries on the radar?

10. To what extent is the geology of oil & gas understood, and has the world “looked in all the good places” already, as some claim?

11. Was M. King Hubbert correct that production of mineral resources will follow a bell curve for production?

12. ASPO predicts 2007, as it’s current guess for peak in production of most hydrocarbons globally. Given the lack of transparency in reserves, can any prediction come close?

13. What is the “best guess” for total endowment of oil worldwide?

14. Can improvements to technology significantly increase the extraction rates from current levels? (Unrecoverable becomes recoverable?)

15. What is the “best guess” for peak production of hydrocarbon resources, per resource? (Oil, gas, coal, etc…)

Additional comments welcome.
_________________
"We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time." - TS Eliot*

The_Virginian · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jun 19, 2004 Posts: 1308

Further questions:

1. Can Petroleum come from mineral as well as Organic sources? (as is the Russian school, could they be partialy correct?)

2. Can new technologies produce a prolonged "flat" production that will skew the ASPO's predictions for a @2008 peak in oil production, and then a very fast decline? How has this possibility been taken into account? (this question inspired by Doc Doom)

3. How far will Venezuala's oil extend the tail end of the oil age?

4. Where and when wil the next ASPO confrence be held, and is the USA (Texas? Smile

) even a remote possibility for maximum media attention?

5. On a personal level, what specific "renewable" technology do you have the most hope for in respect to the future?
_________________
Eickhorn Daggers!
www.pistolanddagger.com