I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2007 12:55 pm Post subject: Re: Bakhtiari: The Peak of Global Production has been reache
First Simmons and now Bakhtiari. Who else needs to announce it to make it official? _________________ In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche
Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine
History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
Joined: Oct 02, 2005 Posts: 289 Location: North Wales , UK
Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2007 1:54 pm Post subject: Re: Bakhtiari: The Peak of Global Production has been reache
The language in the reports conclusion seems to be pretty much "the whole peak oil modelling thing is a done deal , no point discussing it , we're here already .... give up !!"
For me that kind of language is a little disturbing and throws up a whole load of questions like ....
Is he so sure , because he IS right ... and he knows it .....
or
Is he so sure because he only "thinks" hes right .....
I know Dr B is pretty respected so whats the feeling here, is it a done deal or is he wrong ?
Paul _________________ All that it takes for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.
Joined: Dec 28, 2005 Posts: 299 Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2007 2:25 pm Post subject: Re: Bakhtiari: The Peak of Global Production has been reache
If we have indeed reached peak oil, then the question in my mind becomes how long can this economic game be kept going? If the media do their usual good job of keeping negative voices marginalized, they should be able to convince the consumabot sheeple that massive oil fields yet to be discovered combined with some magic techno fix will save the day and allow the easy driving materialistic orgy going. This should prevent hell from breaking loose for I'd say another 10 years, even in the face of relentless declines in oil output.
of course even consumabots can only take so many disappointments, and after ethanol, and the next 4 or 5 saviors turn out to be total disasters they will get fed up with waiting in soup/bread lines and lose faith in the system.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2106 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2007 2:33 pm Post subject: Re: Bakhtiari: The Peak of Global Production has been reache
auscanman wrote:
If we have indeed reached peak oil, then the question in my mind becomes how long can this economic game be kept going? If the media do their usual good job of keeping negative voices marginalized, they should be able to convince the consumabot sheeple that massive oil fields yet to be discovered combined with some magic techno fix will save the day and allow the easy driving materialistic orgy going. This should prevent hell from breaking loose for I'd say another 10 years, even in the face of relentless declines in oil output.
of course even consumabots can only take so many disappointments, and after ethanol, and the next 4 or 5 saviors turn out to be total disasters they will get fed up with waiting in soup/bread lines and lose faith in the system.
Let's not forget, Bakhtiari is in the eye of a storm over civilian use nuclear technology, i.e. Iran.
The leadership over there will be aware of his work. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2007 2:44 pm Post subject: Re: Bakhtiari: The Peak of Global Production has been reache
auscanman wrote:
If we have indeed reached peak oil, then the question in my mind becomes how long can this economic game be kept going?
Until summer demand peaks start running into physical shortage. Once refined product inventories cannot be restored in time for the following year, one year after another, and it is apparent that refineries are not operating at capacity, then the game is up. That's the point when police have queues and civil / industrial unrest to deal with, priority users invoke their status, and government / industry crisis teams convene. All of that and more are automatic responses independent of media interest and will cut through the bullshit as if it's not there.
In other words, until the facts on the ground make assurances irrelevant.
There will then come a period of amnesia.
"Look, we never said it would be easy." _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Last edited by Twilight on Tue Apr 03, 2007 2:47 pm; edited 2 times in total
Joined: Apr 06, 2005 Posts: 1018 Location: 38 km west of Warsaw, Poland
Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2007 2:46 pm Post subject: Re: Bakhtiari: The Peak of Global Production has been reache
auscanman wrote:
If we have indeed reached peak oil, then the question in my mind becomes how long can this economic game be kept going? If the media do their usual good job of keeping negative voices marginalized, they should be able to convince the consumabot sheeple that massive oil fields yet to be discovered combined with some magic techno fix will save the day and allow the easy driving materialistic orgy going. This should prevent hell from breaking loose for I'd say another 10 years, even in the face of relentless declines in oil output.
of course even consumabots can only take so many disappointments, and after ethanol, and the next 4 or 5 saviors turn out to be total disasters they will get fed up with waiting in soup/bread lines and lose faith in the system.
I hear you auscanman. The MSM media is a powerful tool. I was about to say: But even for the average American consumobot, once they are out of work and can't afford to drive around anymore looking for work, it really won't matter what Paris is up to this week or who is still in the running for American Idol, but then I realized you were right.
As long as the TV can remain on, no matter what their plight, most Americans will remain mesmerized. So much to choose from... Perhaps the best things for all of us would be for the TV to go off permanently. Unfortunately, we would be required to start 'thinking'. That can be painful at first...
I don't think it will happen. I can even imagine the US subsidizing 'public access' so evryone can 'stay informed'. Having siad that, I don't think anyone can keep the party going in its current form for 10 more years. Maybe, if they start distributing Ecstasy or lots of THC... _________________ Remember, with globalisation "everyone is a winner" in the "race to the bottom". - rogerhb
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. A.C. Clarke
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4863 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2007 2:51 pm Post subject: Re: Bakhtiari: The Peak of Global Production has been reache
55mbpd by 2020? Wow. The US will need 25-30 of that, so the rest of the world can scrap by on the remain 20. If i have to start walking my dog or NOT driving to my mailbox, i'm going to get pissed. _________________ Clothing should be optional.
Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2007 2:54 pm Post subject: Re: Bakhtiari: The Peak of Global Production has been reache
He was the sole voice correctly predicting $50/barrel oil for the very first time in history. _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2007 3:02 pm Post subject: Re: Bakhtiari: The Peak of Global Production has been reache
Armageddon wrote:
80.00 oil will bankrupt this entire civilization and cause massive starvation and total anarchy. I dont thinkwe will make it past 2008
I think the rate of price gains is more important then the actual price level - up to about $100 in the first world (albeit in third world countries $80 would hit hard). _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2007 3:15 pm Post subject: Re: Bakhtiari: The Peak of Global Production has been reache
I don't think $80-$100 oil will do much more than increase demand destruction. It's not exactly a quantum leap from current prices.
However, when oil production does drop by 5-10% (which won't be far off, people) I can see oil going well beyond $100. I don't see price necessarily being the best indicator, as it's too influenced by market sentiment. We'll see major problems when we really start going beyond the current production plateau. I have no idea when this will be though. Two year to five years is my guess. _________________ All that we are is the result of what we have thought. The mind is everything. What we think we become. - Buddha
Joined: Apr 06, 2005 Posts: 1018 Location: 38 km west of Warsaw, Poland
Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2007 3:35 pm Post subject: Re: Bakhtiari: The Peak of Global Production has been reache
davep wrote:
I don't think $80-$100 oil will do much more than increase demand destruction. It's not exactly a quantum leap from current prices.
However, when oil production does drop by 5-10% (which won't be far off, people) I can see oil going well beyond $100. I don't see price necessarily being the best indicator, as it's too influenced by market sentiment. We'll see major problems when we really start going beyond the current production plateau. I have no idea when this will be though. Two year to five years is my guess.
I agree with you 100%. As long as we continue our slow steady creep upward, people will adjust to $100 per barrel. There are already lots of folks in third world countries that have been cut out of the picture and have had to make other arrangements.
Once everyone else in the 1rst world finally realizes what is going on however, I can see it going to $300 per barrel easily. That is when the fun begins... I can only hope for 2 years! 5 would be even better, but I'm not holding my breath. _________________ Remember, with globalisation "everyone is a winner" in the "race to the bottom". - rogerhb
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. A.C. Clarke
Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2007 3:57 pm Post subject: Re: Bakhtiari: The Peak of Global Production has been reache
Soon, very soon, this website will become irrelevant. It's been a highlight to meet you all in cyberspace, but just about anytime -three weeks to three years, it will be Game Over for all of us. I'll better spend my time tending the land and the sheep. Might make a couple of more posts, but very soon it will be "bye-bye".
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