Posted: Mon May 05, 2008 10:22 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
Freddy,
In your site you make a very poor call when you find "all liquids" a good description of available energy. while you may think that we don't care where it comes from... the truth is Ethanol and Bio-diesel are ALREADY impacting prices of commodities (rain/ soy/ coconut etc.)
Peoples are already going hungry, or at the least paying more for basic foodstuffs.
This WILL impact our lives, and may force a re-think of the whole Bio-fuels issue. (thus hastening the peak)
And while I agree we may never "run out of oil", it can't be said that a long tail of production will sustain an industrial lifestyle for the full theoretical lifespan of petroleum as a fuel source and a feedstock.
It's simply as ludicrous as the "doomers" to think that shale and tar sands will sustain an advanced society.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 219 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 1:52 am Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
The_Virginian wrote:
Freddy, In your site you make a very poor call when you find "all liquids" a good description of available energy.
While i consider most of your other comments a rant, it is fair for u to criticize the calculation of All Liquids within this thread.
IEA has promised for several seasons that they would consider the input energy in processing non-conventional liquids and their reporting. But their failure to address this issue (as opposed to EIA) has led to the current situation where those two agencies now sport a 1.2-mbd discrepancy.
After many years of adopting IEA stats for most of our charts, i applaud the "net" figures seeming utilized by EIA. Last week, we commenced using current and some recent historic data of EIA instead in most of our applications... _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 3:48 am Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
Freddy,
Well, thank you for considering part of my criticism on "your level" EH?
On your website, which is where I was basing most of my post, you seemed to give the impression that "all liquids" was ok, because "people don't care where their fuel comes from"...(paraphrase).
I'm glad to see you seem to have changed your opinion on that matter.
On the other issue:
Honestly, how do you feel society will cope with increasing costs of energy?
(In terms of human labor, and our ability to create money FRN's/ Euro /Loonies-CDN- and other fiat currency, and energy needed to extract the petroleum.)
At what point do you feel that we pass a "breaking point" in human affairs...and our energy dependent world takes a historical turn for the worse.
I am asking your educated opinion on when the proverbial "Rome is sacked"?
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 219 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 12:00 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
The_Virginian wrote:
Freddy,
Well, thank you for considering part of my criticism on "your level" EH?
On your website, which is where I was basing most of my post, you seemed to give the impression that "all liquids" was ok, because "people don't care where their fuel comes from"...(paraphrase).
I'm glad to see you seem to have changed your opinion on that matter.
On the other issue:
Honestly, how do you feel society will cope with increasing costs of energy?
(In terms of human labor, and our ability to create money FRN's/ Euro /Loonies-CDN- and other fiat currency, and energy needed to extract the petroleum.)
At what point do you feel that we pass a "breaking point" in human affairs...and our energy dependent world takes a historical turn for the worse.
I am asking your educated opinion on when the proverbial "Rome is sacked"?
Respectfully (EH?),
The Virginian
There has been no change in my sentiment wrt energy inputs on non-conventionals. I have commented many times over the past two years on the issue of double counting (1.2-mbd) and the progress (or lack thereof) by the Agencies. Regardless, the error factor is less than 2% of total production.
I am also steadfast in my speculation that non-conventionals, presently 22-mbd of the 86-mbd production flow, will continue to bridge the transition to non-fossil fuel energy alternatives. Substitution, conservation and Demand destruction realities shall assist with weaning off regular conventional oil products.
I fear no associated calamity. The avg of the present production profiles indicates that the transition encompasses a one decade plateau followed by decline of no more 1.2%/yr.
The base Price of $60/barrel will continue its 3%/month growth rate. Because petroleum spending comprises less than 3% of the CPI in most g-20 nations, little economic disruption is forecast as prices rise ever higher.
Virginian, should u with to continue this conversation, we should move the discussion to a more revelant thread than STEO! _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 219 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 12:48 pm Post subject: Re: EIA Global Short-Term Energy Outlook
Today's STEO reports that the long time July 2006 record of 85.5-mbd was surpassed in Dec 2007 (85.8-mbd). A new monthly record was subsequently set in Feb 2008 @ 86.0-mbd.
This extends the discrepancy on quarterly reporting betw IEA & EIA to an astonishing 1.4-mbd. I would estimate that 1.0-mbd is attributable to BTL inputs & 0.4-mbd to bitumen & heavy oil processing.
Revised Annual production:
2004 - 83.12-mbd
2005 - 84.65
2006 - 84.60
2007 - 84.60
2008 - 85.81 (YTD to April 30th)
The downward revisions in April STEO amends TrendLines Underlying Decline Rate upwards to 2.9% (2.6-mbd/yr) for 2008. UD is increasing 0.27-mbd/yr. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
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