I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Apr 02, 2005 Posts: 1001 Location: Down Under
Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2007 11:58 pm Post subject: Re: No use trying to spread the word now
I find it a strange notion that there is no point in raising awareness. What if PO became a mainstream concern? Could this possibly have positive results? If everyone was concerned, then perhaps we would see wide scale increases in conservation and efficiency, or maybe projects striving for sustainability would be given more thought? If enough members of society were concerned about an issue, any issue, government would be forced to act, regardless of vested interests.
The only scenario where raising awareness is pointless is if civilization is going to collapse momentarily. But this is most unlikely. Civilizations tend to take time to collapse, and the more we are prepared for change pre PO, the easier the change will be.
People do need to be made aware of PO. But not because they should be planting a vege garden and learning to hunt (not that there’s anything wrong with that), but because society as a whole is going to change soon, and the earlier that change starts, the better. _________________ "Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
Joined: Dec 03, 2004 Posts: 1173 Location: Seattle, Wa.
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 12:48 am Post subject: Re: No use trying to spread the word now
There is some consensus that the suffering of consequences will be the catalyst that will be transfomative. There is also consensus that events to cause this suffering are on the short term horizon. If you put that together it is not hard to conclude that awareness will be coming soon to many people currently clueless. A rather sad irony that many will be awakened as we slip into the die-off. But that is as it should be. We transform when we walk the knife's edge. Last minute awareness will be too late for a lot of the suffering that could have been prevented but looked at from another point of view I wouldn't underestimate what an awakened society might generate when survival leaves the abstract and arrives at your doorstep. _________________ Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
Joined: Jun 18, 2004 Posts: 800 Location: Western North Carolina
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 5:33 am Post subject: Re: No use trying to spread the word now
Omnitir, I appreciate your views, but being deeply cynical, I would answer this question:
Quote:
What if PO became a mainstream concern?
I would expect the media to be full of experts and pundits telling us that it was a myth perpetrated by liberals to reduce the US to third world poverty levels, which is how they tend to frame AGW when given free reign.
I watched a little bit of the Glenn Beck show on CNN last night. He had his panel of climate "experts" (don't remember any credentials being mentioned) telling the audience that AGW was a liberal conspiracy, that there was no scientific consensus, and that the mainstream media is lying. (note the cognitive dissonance that angle must have generated). He stated to his audience that only the most wacko liberals believe humans are influencing Earth's climate. On CNN, a national/worldwide network no less.
He went on to say sarcastically that "american style capitalism is the enemy and it is destroying the earth". His truths are lies and his lies are truths, at least in my view. Very strange.
Are people who watch these shows that ignorant, that frightened, that gullible? The answer is, on average, a resounding YES IMHO.
Further discussion on the MSM will cloud the issue even more, nothing will be done, and we're ultimately heading to the same destination regardless.
The more I read, the more I see on TV, the more I become convinced, depsite my hope to the contrary, that there is no saving America. Too much inertia and ignorace abounds for me to believe otherwise.
Average Americans seem to have little knowledge or understanding of science, geography, history, and mathematics, which I believe are somewhat necessary to comprehend the precepts of PO, and its ramifications. IOW, those that get it will always be in the minority.
Its much easier to pooh-pooh the things that we don't understand rather than taking time to actually look at the data. If the truth is ugly, most people would rather deny it.
We see the same type of resistance to every story that challenges/condemns the dominant paradigm.
When I see Glenn Beck, et al, I see "Bahgdad Bob" circa April 2003.
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 5:58 am Post subject: Re: No use trying to spread the word now
Zardoz wrote:
Ebyss wrote:
...I'm far enough away from the "big city" to avoid swarms of zombies...
Ireland is a very small land mass. Hungry people are highly motivated. Please refer to my sig line.
Hey - you don't need to tell me, I'm fully aware of how tiny Ireland is. But as I'm looking out the window at this very moment, I'm seeing green, green, green hills, fields and forests with more sheep than I can count. Compared to many places, our population and population density is quite low and we have a decent amount of agricultural land. We export a fair amount of food which we could use to feed our own should importing food become prohibitively expensive (in which case most countries will forget about exporting). I would hazard that Ireland could be pretty self-sufficient with a population of 6 million (which is near what we have now). It was before, but it will be hard to return to that level of production thanks to monoculture and topsoil depletion. Maybe it won't work - who knows? I can't predict the future, but I can plan for it, and hope that it works out. If it doesn't, and the zombies descend upon me, then so be it. But I ain't gonna sit around and NOT plant food and raise livestock in case the zombies will steal it from me in the future.
I have a choice - I can do nothing, or I can do something. I'd rather do something. If it doesn't work out, then that's the way it goes. But if they don't come, then I'll have food.
Ireland's tiny size and Dublin's (and other major cities) proximity to the countryside is a bonus as well. While the hordes of zombies might be able to walk to the countryside and steal my food, the farmers around me will equally be able to hitch up their horses/oxen and drive them into the cities to deliver their produce. Hell, they do that now, except they use trucks instead of horses. And, they did it before, not so long ago either. Most people have gardens (though apartments are becoming more and more popular) so they could grow their own food to supplement rations if we get to that stage. Cuba might not be the ideal model to look at, but they didn't all revert to cannibalism and violence when their oil stopped overnight - they made a go of it, and while they are very poor, they are alive and growing food. Did people die? Yep. Will people die? Yep. Will Ireland sail through Peak Oil? Nope.
You either give it your best shot or you sit waiting for the worst to happen. Me? I'm gonna give it my best shot, and if I fail.. well.. the outcome will be no worse than if I did nothing. But if I succeed, then life will be different, but hopefully not too horrific.
Global Climate Change on the other hand? Well.. I think we're buggered and nothing I do will make even a tiny bit of difference. Still gonna grow food though. _________________ We've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas.
I am only one. I can only do what one can do. But what one can do, I will do. -- John Seymour.
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 7:06 am Post subject: Re: No use trying to spread the word now
I'm done trying to change peoples minds but sometimes I trow in a short conversation about how I think our future look like and what I think is going to happen and ofcourse why.
I don't do this to make people change there minds I do it so when TSHTF, I want them to remember that there where people who knew about it longtime before it happned. I'm not sure if they will remember my words but thats why I sometimes tell people, I don't care how crazy they think I am.
And about the thinking that we still can change the world and stop the process...
I have to say no f way.
Oil is power! To make a difference we have to change the way we are living and that means cuting down our use of oil. That will lead to disarming and become more vulnerable. This will only make other contrys take advantage of the situation and take control of the remaining oil and with that have more power.
I believe that this has to go all the way, no one will let go until its over, at least thats what I think. So the only thing we can do to make things better is getting in our cars and drive, drive, drive and drive. Or do you have an plane, fly! Anything to get rid of the oil as fast as possible. I believe as long there is oil this will continue, the people who runs the world have been PO aware for decades and the aint going to change there minds now.
We don't live in democracy...perhaps democrazy but not democracy. I think it will show that we don't have much to say about anything, we just think we do, at least as long there is oil. _________________ I Love This Planet, I Don't Want To Kill It Anymore!
Man Belongs To The Earth * Earth Do Not Belong to Man
27/3-07 The Day UFC Won The War!
Last edited by UFCjunkie on Tue Apr 24, 2007 7:34 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3429 Location: California, USA
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 7:34 am Post subject: Re: No use trying to spread the word now
No, don't drive drive drive, because that'll just drive the climate catastrophe faster and further.
---
Ludi, if you're looking for a community to join up with, email me via PM on this board.
---
When I said, talk to the people close to you and save them if you can, and let the sheeple darwinize themselves, I did not mean give up on civic action.
We have to be civically engaged, using every tool at our disposal, most notably the ballot box and changes in our spending habits.
Peak oil is going to be a picnic compared to the climate catastrophe. The UN report says we're in for a minimum of + 2 degrees celsius, and potentially as much as + 6 by the end of this century.
According to Lovelock, who has the science down tight, + 5 will be enough to make most of the world uninhabitable to humans. We might get by with as many as a tenth of a billion. If we're lucky.
There's a reasonable chance we can build our way out of peak oil if we have to, with enough nuclear, solar, wind, conservation, and so on, and saving the remaining oil for use as a critical industrial feedstock. Those adjustments we could make incrementally, responding to market signals.
But we can't build our way out of climate change except by making changes that are so radical that they will have to anticipate market signals by multiple decades. And that is not going to happen. In any case there's the little problem of overpopulation, which nature is going to solve for us unless we either stop multiplying like mice, or we have a nuclear war first.
The best we can do is mitigate the intensity and duration of the climate crash. And that is worth doing with every muscle in your body and every nerve in your brain. Each degree of warming between +2 and +6 that we can avoid, means a greater chance for humans and for the earth in general.
So don't try to persuade people who won't listen, except to persuade them to vote for whichever candidates are most on the ball about this stuff. And it is definitely worth persuading them to vote.
For that you don't have to pour on the doom sauce. All you have to do is bitch about gas prices, mention "we're about to hit peak oil and then it'll be like the 1970s all over again until we get substitute energy sources on line..." and then say "vote for so-and-so, s/he's the best of the bunch this time." And if you want to add just a dash of doom sauce, at the very end mention, "by the way, fossil fuels are where we get our agricultural fertilizers from." Leave them with that and let it gnaw at them.
And get on with your preparations, and gather up the people close to you, and get ready for the 21st century that almost no one in the 20th ever saw coming.
And if you have kids, they are going to live through the major crunch and the transition, so do it for them.
The main thing is: never surrender, never give up, never give in. We're in the fight of the century, and the fight for the survival of humanity as we know it, and the fight for the survival of 20 to 30% of the species on earth.
And if you ever think of giving up or giving in, read some stories from WW2.
---
The opinions expressed above are solely my own and do not speak for other individuals or groups with which/whom I am affiliated.
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 7:54 am Post subject: Re: No use trying to spread the word now
gg3 wrote:
No, don't drive drive drive, because that'll just drive the climate catastrophe faster and further.
I'm not sure that the right way is to drive more and make the oil run out quicker, but I'm not sure driving less will make it better eighter, it will only slow down the process but same crap will happen anyway. I don't think people wont care about the climate until the oil is gone, not people who has the power to make a change anyway, the people with the armys.
gg3 wrote:
So don't try to persuade people who won't listen, except to persuade them to vote for whichever candidates are most on the ball about this stuff. And it is definitely worth persuading them to vote.
For that you don't have to pour on the doom sauce. All you have to do is bitch about gas prices, mention "we're about to hit peak oil and then it'll be like the 1970s all over again until we get substitute energy sources on line..." and then say "vote for so-and-so, s/he's the best of the bunch this time." And if you want to add just a dash of doom sauce, at the very end mention, "by the way, fossil fuels are where we get our agricultural fertilizers from." Leave them with that and let it gnaw at them.
Just let's say there will be a candidate that are most on the ball about this stuff, with so many votes that there can't be a misscount or something like that but to give that candidate the win in to the WH office.
If he try to make changes that is going to put USA in a position that weakens the country and make it more vunerable (wich a better world for the climate will do), I think he's gonna be shot dead infront of millions of people, just to show that, that is not going to happen.
As I said before we don't have jack crap to say about our future as long as there is oil. If we did this would have changed along time ago. I have a very hard time to see it in another way. We are not in control, especially when it comes to OIL...power.
Edit: I hope you all can over look my spelling problems, I'm trying...thanks. _________________ I Love This Planet, I Don't Want To Kill It Anymore!
Man Belongs To The Earth * Earth Do Not Belong to Man
27/3-07 The Day UFC Won The War!
Last edited by UFCjunkie on Tue Apr 24, 2007 8:26 am; edited 4 times in total
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 7:58 am Post subject: Re: No use trying to spread the word now
UFCjunkie wrote:
I don't care how crazy they think I am.
I do
You are a better man than me if you can put up with it for more than a few months.
I tried, now if I ever mention it I pretend to be an optimist. I find people much older than me are far more likely to think and have something insightful to add. People below the age of about 40 I find to be totally blind and unable to construct meaningful arguments.
gg3 wrote:
For that you don't have to pour on the doom sauce. All you have to do is bitch about gas prices, mention "we're about to hit peak oil and then it'll be like the 1970s all over again until we get substitute energy sources on line..." and then say "vote for so-and-so, s/he's the best of the bunch this time." And if you want to add just a dash of doom sauce, at the very end mention, "by the way, fossil fuels are where we get our agricultural fertilizers from." Leave them with that and let it gnaw at them.
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 11:01 am Post subject: Re: No use trying to spread the word now
Quote:
Peak oil is going to be a picnic compared to the climate catastrophe. The UN report says we're in for a minimum of + 2 degrees celsius, and potentially as much as + 6 by the end of this century.
This is why I don't worry about Peak Oil. Humans have lived, and lived well, without oil for millennia. Global Warming, on the other hand, scares the everloving crap out of me. There is a deep irony in the fact that I laugh at those who say "technology will save us from Peak Oil disaster", all the while praying that "technology will save us from Global Warming". I don't know what else to pray for.
I even heard nuclear winter being bandied about as a possible "solution" for GW, and I surprised myself by not being totally horrified at the thought.
I'm not afraid of death, I'm not afraid of zombies, I sure as hell ain't afraid of living without oil... but the thought of what GW will do to this planet makes me terrified to my very soul. _________________ We've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas.
I am only one. I can only do what one can do. But what one can do, I will do. -- John Seymour.
Joined: Mar 12, 2007 Posts: 1008 Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 11:51 am Post subject: Re: No use trying to spread the word now
Why bother to swim against the tide? Casaubon has got a nice essay on why good people should choose not to partake in the parts of the current system that don't match their current values.
Quote:
Whenever anyone says to you, "one person cannot make a difference" remember this - some day you will face your children, or G-d, or your own conscience. Being able to do that, and say "I fought back" may be the greatest legacy you can leave. Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps we might also enable this planet to remain a place fit for human habitation.
Yes, it's an uphill battle. And yes, individually we are just single cogs in the system. But, as Ebyss' sig says, "What one can do, I will do." It starts there. "Be the change you wish to see in the world." Or from a systems perspective, positive feedback works. Slowly at first, but then it picks up speed.
Consider yourself a functional mutation. For example, we built a house last year. Small enough to heat with a Jotul stove. Handcleared lot, all the wood stacked for the stove. No lawn, native vegetation. Raised beds out front for a garden. Detached garage which will eventually morph into a barn. It's interesting to watch the neighbors adopt some of the ideas as they get negative feedback from the system regarding their choices...high taxes because of the big house. Huge electric and gas bills with no recourse. Resource eating lawns. We're starting to get questions, and there are lots of "drivebys." No need and no desire to get on the soapbox. Actions always speak louder than words.
When I do get questions, I try to coach instead of preach. Rephrase everything in terms of platonic questions. I choose friends who are tolerant of the occasional doomer rant, even if they don't totally buy in to everything. And the local community who get it and live within walking distance is growing.
My significant other travels a lot outside. The SO travelled to Wisconsin this week for a meeting. SO took a taxi to the bike store, bought a foldable bike, and biked the 50 miles to a campground, and then on to the meeting. At least 4 people stopped SO and asked all kinds of questions just in front of the bike store during the packing process. This kind of stuff can be infectious. Viral change.
The same thing has happened at SO's work. Bikes to work winter and summer, 16 miles roundtrip. Neither moose nor ice nor dark of night..... At least in the summertime, the number of bikes at the rack has since quadrupled. Leadership and role modeling works--go figure.
Look at this forum. A wealth of information, supporting a snowball of new learners. Look at what has been accomplished in three years. An amazingly rich resource. This forum is going to need to figure out how to deal with a flood of panicked new learners without developing "caregiver exhaustion", though.
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 1:25 pm Post subject: Re: No use trying to spread the word now
Ebyss wrote:
This is why I don't worry about Peak Oil. Humans have lived, and lived well, without oil for millennia. Global Warming, on the other hand, scares the everloving crap out of me. There is a deep irony in the fact that I laugh at those who say "technology will save us from Peak Oil disaster", all the while praying that "technology will save us from Global Warming". I don't know what else to pray for.
I'm saying this without knowing If it's true but I hope it to be...
Peak Oil is why I'm not afraid of Global Warming. I have been aware of the climate changes for many years, long before I was aware of PO. Back then I saw no ending to our destruction and I saw the death of the humankind and a hell of alot of animals. I thought it will never end until we wiped out ourselfs.
But then...
Peak Oil came in to my picture! This was going to be our saviour! This would take away our power to selfdestruct and stop the killing of our planet. I started to see hope...after many years I finally saw an ending that I never deared to wish for.
My hope and beliefs are that there arent enough oil to kill us all. There are enough oil to put us in a really bad situation and alot of animals and other living things will die because of the climate changes, but we will survive. The planet will be strong and recover, but it will take time.
At least this is my hope...I hope we will survive the situation we put us in but only a small part of us. This will be one of the ways nature will evenout the overpopulation, as we all no we are way too many.
That's why I'm no longer scared of GW, I know it's a disaster but I think we will survive it, some of us that is. Peak Oil have giving me such fatih! But as I said, I don't know if it true, it's my hope... _________________ I Love This Planet, I Don't Want To Kill It Anymore!
Man Belongs To The Earth * Earth Do Not Belong to Man
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 4:53 pm Post subject: Re: No use trying to spread the word now
I thought the same thing, but then I found out about Global Dimming . As soon as we stop pumping oil into the atmosphere, the globe will heat up real fast.
Catch 22. It's a no-win situation. I can't see a way out. That's what scares me. _________________ We've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas.
I am only one. I can only do what one can do. But what one can do, I will do. -- John Seymour.
Joined: Oct 23, 2005 Posts: 1840 Location: East of Eden
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 5:10 pm Post subject: Re: No use trying to spread the word now
gg3 wrote:
The main thing is: never surrender, never give up, never give in. We're in the fight of the century, and the fight for the survival of humanity as we know it, and the fight for the survival of 20 to 30% of the species on earth.
Well said gg3. We are in the fight for the survival of humanity and the world, and we mustn't give up. Future generations will judge us on one thing, and one thing only: the health of the landbase. Is there fresh water? Fresh air? Is there food? Are there fish in the oceans? Are there forests left? Is it a liveable planet?
They won't give a crap about anything else about us. They won't care if we were nice people or not, or if we followed all the rules or not, or if we used words like 'eco' and 'sustainable' or not, or if we 'cared' or not. Just that one thing, before which all other issues pale to utter insignificance.
What is there to do now that would actually be effective? My thoughts are increasingly turning to this. Because one way or another, the destruction needs to be stopped. Soon. Now. Or humanity will have one hell of a hard time making it to the next millenium -- and generations of struggling and miserable humans will curse our names.
The knowledge that I won't personally see the worst of it isn't enough. I have to figure out what can be done. _________________ "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst." — Thomas Hardy
Joined: Apr 02, 2005 Posts: 1001 Location: Down Under
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 6:08 pm Post subject: Re: No use trying to spread the word now
UFCjunkie wrote:
Peak Oil is why I'm not afraid of Global Warming.
Ebyss wrote:
I thought the same thing, but then I found out about Global Dimming . As soon as we stop pumping oil into the atmosphere, the globe will heat up real fast.
Catch 22. It's a no-win situation. I can't see a way out. That's what scares me.
Global0dimming is one possibility. Another is that we rapidly burn the massive amounts of coal that is sitting on the Western worlds doorstep in an effort to keep the party pumping. Damned if you do, damned if you don't? _________________ "Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
Joined: Apr 02, 2005 Posts: 1001 Location: Down Under
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 6:23 pm Post subject: Re: No use trying to spread the word now
Roy wrote:
Omnitir, I appreciate your views, but being deeply cynical, I would answer this question:
Quote:
What if PO became a mainstream concern?
I would expect the media to be full of experts and pundits telling us that it was a myth perpetrated by liberals to reduce the US to third world poverty levels, which is how they tend to frame AGW when given free reign.
Wow, you really are very cynical.
You're arguing that it is impossible to make PO a mainstream concern. But what if it was a mainstream concern?
I mean, what would be the effect if PO was in the public consciousness? It wouldn't matter if some groups refute it, because in this scenario the majority of people are aware of hydrocarbon depletion issues and are concerned enough to make noise about it.
This would mean that efforts for change would be made. Many people would conserve, maybe changing their SUV's for small cars, or even just small things like using more efficient light bulbs etc. (apparently if every US household changed just one regular light bulb to a fluorescent one, it would be the equivalent of taking 1 million cars off the road!).
Government initiatives, and research and development, would be shifted more towards finding solutions to the problems people see coming, as opposed to finding new toys because the people are unaware of any problems.
It all comes down to what people want. See my sig. We create our future based on what we want. If people are not aware that there is any problem with racing around in SUV's, why would they stop? Alternatively, if many people demanded alternative energy projects, that's exactly what we would get.
It all comes down to public awareness, and perhaps the best way to raise awareness, is word of mouth. _________________ "Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
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