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Aaron
800 lb Gorilla
Joined: Apr 15, 2004
Posts: 6473
Location: Houston
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 Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:58 am Post subject: Re: It's Always Worth Repeating |
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| green_achers wrote: | | Excuse me if I am just ignorant of common knowledge of everybody else here, but what is the source of the graph? I notice that "past" discovery actually overlaps the 1995-2025 period by about 5 years, and it is closer (as you would expect) to P95 than any of the other projections. |
The US Geological Survey
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Aaron
800 lb Gorilla
Joined: Apr 15, 2004
Posts: 6473
Location: Houston
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| Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 6:10 am Post subject: Re: It's Always Worth Repeating |
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This quote, (linked from the USGS website!) explains the problem nicely.
| Quote: | | Abstract The US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently predicted that world oil production could continue to increase for more than three decades, based on the recent US Geological Survey (USGS) evaluation of world oil resources and a simple, transparent model. However, it can be shown that this model is not consistent with actual oil production records in many different regions, particularly that of the US, from which it was derived. A more careful application of the EIA model, using the same resource estimates, indicates that at best non-OPEC oil production can increase for less than two decades, and should begin to decline at the latest sometime between 2015 and 2020. OPEC at this point will completely control the world oil market and will need to meet increased demand as well as compensate for declining production of non-OPEC producers. OPEC could control the market even sooner than this, given its larger share of proven oil reserves, probable difficulties in transforming non-OPEC undiscovered reserves into proven reserves, and the converging interests of all oil producers as reserves are depleted. This has significant implications for the world economy and for US national security. |
http://www.springerlink.com/content/k8201q7324731845/?p=edafdb6a7b484952bcedb0d494690404&pi=3
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green_achers
Heavy Crude
Joined: Aug 14, 2005
Posts: 398
Location: Mississippi Delta
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| Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 9:54 am Post subject: Re: It's Always Worth Repeating |
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Well, I guess I don't understand what all of the fuss is about. Their chart seems to support the 95% probability model. Anyone who makes their plans based on any other curve is a fool, to say the least.
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Sarah Palin: Because what we really need right now is another inexperienced, inarticulate, personable, fundamentalist governor of an oil-dependent state for president. |
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Twilight
Expert
Joined: Mar 02, 2007
Posts: 3076
Location: UK
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| Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 11:03 am Post subject: Re: It's Always Worth Repeating |
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| green_achers wrote: | | Well, I guess I don't understand what all of the fuss is about. Their chart seems to support the 95% probability model. Anyone who makes their plans based on any other curve is a fool, to say the least. |
How to lie with statistics: write your abstract and conclusion to support your source of funding, and bury your data in the appendices.
You can pass courses this way - assume the person doing the marking only looks at the pictures, or only reads the narrative, adjust to suit. Once it carries a recognised mark of authority, the only thing that matters is what you draw attention to.
The basics are easy, and the incidence is common. Governments and industry just have more resources to throw at the problem than students.
EDIT: Here's a humorous look at how it's done. |
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Aaron
800 lb Gorilla
Joined: Apr 15, 2004
Posts: 6473
Location: Houston
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| Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 7:44 am Post subject: Re: It's Always Worth Repeating |
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| green_achers wrote: | | Well, I guess I don't understand what all of the fuss is about. Their chart seems to support the 95% probability model. Anyone who makes their plans based on any other curve is a fool, to say the least. |
Exactly what all the fuss is about actually.
Somebody finds a lake of sweet oil in the Super Giant class & our kids can have this discussion in 30 years or so...
But I wouldn't bet on it.
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"When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
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dinopello
Fusion
Joined: May 13, 2005
Posts: 3024
Location: The Urban Village
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| Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 8:27 am Post subject: Re: It's Always Worth Repeating |
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| Aaron wrote: | Somebody finds a lake of sweet oil in the Super Giant class & our kids can have this discussion in 30 years or so...
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You think a single super giant would last that long? Ha. |
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Aaron
800 lb Gorilla
Joined: Apr 15, 2004
Posts: 6473
Location: Houston
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| Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 11:32 am Post subject: Re: It's Always Worth Repeating |
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| dinopello wrote: | | Aaron wrote: | Somebody finds a lake of sweet oil in the Super Giant class & our kids can have this discussion in 30 years or so...
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You think a single super giant would last that long? Ha. |
Another Ghawar?
Sure
Another North Sea?
Not so much
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"When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
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Zardoz
Expert
Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6662
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
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| Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2007 10:36 pm Post subject: Re: It's Always Worth Repeating |
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| Aaron wrote: | | Another Ghawar? |
Imagine how different the world would be today if Ghawar, Burgan, and Cantarell were all located within the continental U.S.
What sort of scenarios could one come up with?
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dinopello
Fusion
Joined: May 13, 2005
Posts: 3024
Location: The Urban Village
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| Posted: Sat Apr 28, 2007 10:49 pm Post subject: Re: It's Always Worth Repeating |
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| Zardoz wrote: | | Aaron wrote: | | Another Ghawar? |
Imagine how different the world would be today if Ghawar, Burgan, and Cantarell were all located within the continental U.S.
What sort of scenarios could one come up with? |
You mean like a new Ghawar? We wouldn't be over in the ME, but we'd all be driving dump-truck-sized SUV's while asphalt and concrete would be so cheap we could make every road a 16 laner. It would just be so super  |
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Tanada
Expert
Joined: Apr 28, 2005
Posts: 3867
Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
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| Posted: Sun Apr 29, 2007 7:32 am Post subject: Re: It's Always Worth Repeating |
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| Zardoz wrote: | | Aaron wrote: | | Another Ghawar? |
Imagine how different the world would be today if Ghawar, Burgan, and Cantarell were all located within the continental U.S.
What sort of scenarios could one come up with? |
You mean if they were orriginally located inside the USA? Then the USA peak would have been delayed from 1970-72 to about 1982 and we would have hit 14 Mbbl/d instead of topping out at 10. Today we would be at about 8 Mbbl/d with all in depletion and we would be importing 12 Mbbl/d if it were availible on the world market with those three fields never having been part of the world market. If they were located in the USA we would know a lot better how much oil they held and still hold.
Oh and the USA trade ballance would have been better through the 1980's and 1990's and ME countries would be proportionaly poorer as a result. World oil prices wouldn't have been much different from what they were historically because the USA would still be consuming the same oil, or possibly more due to the cushioning of the oil shocks from the ME in the 70's. It was the big oil shock in the late 70's that really got the fire going under Congress to mandate all sorts of energy saving legislation like the CAFE standards and the Energy Star appliance laws. It was also the impetus for my dad to buy a woodstove and make me split firewood when I wanted to hang out with my friends 
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Golgo13
Heavy Crude
Joined: Dec 13, 2004
Posts: 228
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| Posted: Sat May 05, 2007 12:05 am Post subject: Re: It's Always Worth Repeating |
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| Aaron wrote: | | Of course that's just my opinion... I could be wrong. |
Yeah, you could be.
But then again, so could they.
And given the discovery trend + advances in technology, if there was any insane reserves out there just waiting to be found then we would have in all likelihood found them by now.
So with that observation, the lower estimate seems much more likely a scenario than the median or upper. |
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sch_peakoiler
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jan 15, 2006
Posts: 555
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| Posted: Sat May 05, 2007 2:46 am Post subject: |
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| Gideon wrote: | | Quote: | | The only thing I am curious about is when they give you 100 mil to shut down or turn over this site please give us our share! Smile |
Give 100 mil?
The web site will be closed down as one of the first casualties of the "Prevention of Terrorism through unPatriotic Sedition Act of 2008".
I'm not kidding. This web site is a clear and present danger to national [energy] security and the stability of the zombie hordes. |
Thats a very good point. For myself, this website (is availability/non availability) is the benchmark of the "severity" of the situation. For now, the situation is not so severe, so that it could be held under control by just counter propaganda - so the site is allowed to exist.
By the way - you do not really need to close the site by the law of the patriotic Act - it just draws attention. An intense hacker attack would be enough for the hosting provider to politely ask site owners to desist.
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Roy
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jun 18, 2004
Posts: 798
Location: Western North Carolina
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| Posted: Sat May 05, 2007 5:01 am Post subject: Re: It's Always Worth Repeating |
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| Quote: | | Imagine how different the world would be today if Ghawar, Burgan, and Cantarell were all located within the continental U.S. |
Lots of folks in this country believe that to be true. I've heard it from former oil workers, engineers, and just plain ol' people.
Even Alex Jones said that there were huge amounts of oil on his family property that was capped on purpose. A new saudi arabia in Alaska that has been left untouched.
They seem to think that we're using up the rest of the world's reserves before using our own, and that the oil companies are deliberately creating false shortages for short term economic benefits.
That idea makes about as much sense to me as Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and the White House fact sheet on Al Queda in Iraq.
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Concerned
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Sep 23, 2004
Posts: 1548
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| Posted: Wed May 09, 2007 3:46 pm Post subject: Re: It's Always Worth Repeating |
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| killJOY wrote: | Why is it so hard to believe that people would believe this?
Most people in this country believe that a man who died 2,000 years ago actually rose bodily from the dead and that if you believe this you will live forever. |
ROFLMAO classic and sadly true too. Then you extrapolate that to the rest of humanity...
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Mircea
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 04, 2007
Posts: 171
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| Posted: Fri Jun 08, 2007 10:34 pm Post subject: Re: It's Always Worth Repeating |
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| Zardoz wrote: | | Aaron wrote: | | Another Ghawar? |
Imagine how different the world would be today if Ghawar, Burgan, and Cantarell were all located within the continental U.S.
What sort of scenarios could one come up with? |
39 SLBM MIRV busses de-orbiting at an altitude of 85 miles over a period of 22 minutes along a north-south axis transiting an east axis about 150 miles apart, each with six 750 kt warheads and three decoys..... |
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