How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
after unusual dry and warm weather for 8 consecutive months now, this april was (or will become) the most sunniest, warmest and driest since the beginning of recording weather. Extremely dry and warm also in other regions (e.g. Italy). A few more days of this and the crops will be severely damaged. A few more years of this and we may fight malaria in germany.
Of course weather is not climate, but i have the very bad feeling that something disastrous of unbelievable proportions my have started to move, so large and possibly disastrous, that one just cannot come up with the courage to face it. Its like having your mother diagnosed with cancer.
what are your observations? _________________ The mouse, i`ve been sure for years, limps home from the site of the burning ferris wheel with a brand new, airtight plan for killing the cat.
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:49 am Post subject: Re: Bavaria: hottest, driest, sunniest April ever
Well,
When you are having to water your plants in Ireland (for the past 6 weeks we have only got 2 days of rain), something very strange is happening. I have to admit that it makes a nice change but the farmers are beginning to get worried. The 2 days of rain we got, while heavy, was not enought to compensate for 40 days of no rain. Remember, all our systems are based on the premise of having almost constant rain.
Quote:
The average number of wet days (days with more than 1mm of rain) ranges from about 150 days a year along the east and south-east coasts, to about 225 days a year in parts of the west.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4227 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 7:45 am Post subject: Re: Bavaria: hottest, driest, sunniest April ever
On another forum, a member brought up this very topic. Being from Italy, he follows weather very closely. Wait until the gulf stream shuts down... You'll have a climate similiar to Hudson Bay
Summer over there could be very ugly. _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 8:48 am Post subject: Re: Bavaria: hottest, driest, sunniest April ever
Meanwhile it just won't F#$%ing warm up here! Got an inch of snow a couple days back and freezing temps every night. Its thrashing my berry plants and fruit trees. Enough damn winter already. The record snowfalls over the winter were nice but temps have been consistently like 10 degrees below normal.
-G (New Mexico USA) _________________ All right, you primitive screw-heads, listen up!
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2325 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 9:55 am Post subject: Re: Bavaria: hottest, driest, sunniest April ever
In eastern Pennsylvania we had a late start to winter, but it did come. We had record cold temeratures in Febuary and March along with lots of precipitation. _________________ "That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3669 Location: over here
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 10:38 am Post subject: Re: Bavaria: hottest, driest, sunniest April ever
Hey, there's always a hottest, driest and sunniest month or season somewhere in the world......we had that last summer in holland for instance...and America had that last summer too I think..and it was the case in England too..wtf? _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 11:01 am Post subject: Re: Bavaria: hottest, driest, sunniest April ever
Hopefully it's just a temporary seasonal pattern and not something you'll see more of. I live in the midwest US (wisconsin) and we had a cold late winter and spring. Today it's gloomy and rainy as it's been for the past several days. The axis of chill in the northern hemisphere this spring has been over hudson bay and the northwest territories. Once hudson bay is frozen it provides reservoir of cold which helps to energize storms and give us rain well into june.
I might add that the area being affected by drought in germany and france is not all that large.
It's still bad news of course, especially when normally wet areas like Ireland are dry, and from the sounds of things the drought in SE australia is very severe at this point.
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 12:26 pm Post subject: Re: Bavaria: hottest, driest, sunniest April ever
I am living right here in Bavaria. Yes, we had an unusual warm summer, sorry winter. Yes, it is kind of dry. But ... my grandgrandgrandgrand...parents thought so as well. Why ?
Actually I am living very close to the spot were 9000 BC or so the glaciers stopped and have retreated from since. This spot is in the southern suburbs of Munich, some 120 miles from where the glacier is now. According to research that warming did happen in the instance of less than 30 years.
There is NO ONE, NO ONE on this planet who has a fully accepted theory of what drove the climate to have the glacier grow to my spot. And the very same people crusading for GW have not the slightest idea what made it retreat and warm up so dramatically fast. One thing is for sure .... there were NO cars !!
Did you also know that the very same scientists who beat the GW
drum now where the ones that threatened us with GC (global Cooling) in the 1970-80ies. And indeed, the period 1960-70 was "unusually" cold. Just google for Global Cooling, or ask wikipedia.
And guess who was blamed for the imminent ice age ...
My g*200 rand parents did the same, blaming themselves. And invented human (virgin, witchces) killing ceremonies. In the colder than usual period around 1600 witch killing was about as fashionable as is "global warming battling" today.
Think about the frozen Mammoth in Siberia, frozen while digesting gras. And then ask yourself if you want to be hype.
Actually around 100 AC it was pretty much warmer in Europe. Thats why the Romans got the idea of walking with sandals in into Germany ..... Maybe this year it is beginning to be alike. Italians welcome.
Joined: Oct 28, 2006 Posts: 150 Location: Southern California
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 1:04 pm Post subject: Re: Bavaria: hottest, driest, sunniest April ever
kuebel wrote:
Did you also know that the very same scientists who beat the GW
drum now where the ones that threatened us with GC (global Cooling) in the 1970-80ies. And indeed, the period 1960-70 was "unusually" cold. Just google for Global Cooling, or ask wikipedia.
Hmm, Wikipedia seems to directly contradict your assertion:
This theory never had significant scientific support, but gained temporary popular attention due to press reporting following a better understanding of ice age cycles and a temporary downward trend of temperatures from the 1940s to the early 1970s.
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:32 pm Post subject: Re: Bavaria: hottest, driest, sunniest April ever
There is no contradiction ... “cause what I am trying to get across is that none of us are in a position to definitively, affirmatively declare the current theories and interpretation the final good ones.
Yes, 30 years later we know that an ice age was not imminent. We know because (a) it never happened and (b) the same scholars (not always in person but as a group with common roots) now want us to believe the new theory.
The above cited Wikipedia on Global Cooling also states:
Although there was a cooling trend then, it should be realised that climate scientists were perfectly well aware that predictions based on this trend were not possible - because the trend was poorly studied and not understood (for example see reference[8]).However in the popular press the possibility of cooling was reported generally without the caveats present in the scientific reports .
The latter sentence is a reminder to us - ever since the tabloid press took on the chaos and catastrophy hipe we tend to claim everything to GW that is not exactly the same as last night.
I just wonder how Wikipedia issue 2037 will write about the current "understanding" - it will probably write:
However in the popular press the certainty of warming was reported generally without the caveats present in the scientific reports.
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:32 pm Post subject: Re: Bavaria: hottest, driest, sunniest April ever
There is no contradiction ... “cause what I am trying to get across is that none of us are in a position to definitively, affirmatively declare the current theories and interpretation the final good ones.
Yes, 30 years later we know that an ice age was not imminent. We know because (a) it never happened and (b) the same scholars (not always in person but as a group with common roots) now want us to believe the new theory.
The above cited Wikipedia on Global Cooling also states:
Although there was a cooling trend then, it should be realised that climate scientists were perfectly well aware that predictions based on this trend were not possible - because the trend was poorly studied and not understood (for example see reference[8]).However in the popular press the possibility of cooling was reported generally without the caveats present in the scientific reports .
The latter sentence is a reminder to us - ever since the tabloid press took on the chaos and catastrophy hipe we tend to claim everything to GW that is not exactly the same as last night.
I just wonder how Wikipedia issue 2037 will write about the current "understanding" - it will probably write:
However in the popular press the certainty of warming was reported generally without the caveats present in the scientific reports.
Posted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 5:56 pm Post subject: Re: Bavaria: hottest, driest, sunniest April ever
Kuebel,
Ich bin von Muenchen nach Australian gezogen weil es mir in Bayern zu kalt war. Jetzt trocknet mein neuer Kontinent aus und Bayern hat endlich angenehme Temperatuen und vor allem die Biergaergen ende Maerz schon offen.
The year 1816 was famous as "the year without a summer." That year started out, in Stanley as well as other regions of the south, so mild for the months of January and February that many folks let their fires go out and burned wood only for cooking; however, March was very cold and windy. Showers started the Month of April but ended with snow and ice. In May the temperature was like that of winter. The young buds that began forming in April were stiff and frozen. Ice, one half inch thick formed on ponds and rivers in North and South Carolina. Corn was killed and after being planted again and again nothing was reaped from the cornfields. June was cold, the coldest month ever experienced in this latitude. Almost all green things as well as fruits were killed. There was ice, frost, and some snow flurries in July. August proved to be the worst month of all not only here but even in Europe. September started out with two weeks of pleasant weather and the rest of the month was cold. October and November were extremely cold and then December was mild. This extraordinary weather condition in 1816 had been caused by the volcanic eruption of Mt. Temboro in the Dutch East Indies, blowing 50 cubic miles of dust into the air and killing some 66,000 people. The volcanic dust clouded the skies all over the earth causing the "year without a summer."
Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 2:19 am Post subject: Re: Bavaria: hottest, driest, sunniest April ever
Lighthouse wrote:
Kuebel,
Ich bin von Muenchen nach Australian gezogen weil es mir in Bayern zu kalt war. Jetzt trocknet mein neuer Kontinent aus und Bayern hat endlich angenehme Temperatuen und vor allem die Biergaergen ende Maerz schon offen.
Irgendwas hab' ich falsch gemacht .... :D
Ah, treffen der (Exil-) Muenchner. Tja Lighthouse vielleicht gibt“s ja bald die Wies“n unter Palmen.
Back on topic: kuebel IMO your arguments are a little strange. Claiming a lack of complete understanding of climate patterns and false former predictions make it unlikely that humans have anything to do with a (possible) climate change, even though human are changing the environment (CO2 Emissions, deforestation etc) in a more or less massive way. That seems not very scientific to me. If you have an alternative explanation for a rising number of abnormal weather patterns, let us know your theory, and try to prove it. By the way saying that former climate changes weren’t caused by humans is no adequate prove, otherwise I could also claim: Car accidents happened before I got my driving license, therefore it’s not likely that a can cause one, without regard to my driving style.
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