Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 4:20 am Post subject: Re: Bavaria: hottest, driest, sunniest April ever
flip -
if I had a complete theory I would be making awards and money right now. All that I want to get across for the moment is ...
1) it is absolutely correct to serioulsy take in new information and insights one has on everything that might be relevant for the future ... I am concerned, would I visit the PO Board and similar Envi Boards otherwise ?
2) it is one of the guiding principles of scientific / rational conduct to weight the insight with respect to all other knowledge AND IN PARTCULAR to the knowledge about NON-KNOWLEDGE.
3) So, we do know that the climate has been changing all the time.
We do know that global temperatures and local ones have been going up and down. We do know that the composition of the atmosphere has something to do with it, as does the non-constancy of the irradiation from sun, as does the location and shape of continents, salt and what else content of sea water ....
4) We do not have a semi-complete theory that would even tell us how to predict the coming and going of an icing period. At the moment we do not even know for sure whether the increased level of CO2 is the RESULT of warimg or may one of the many ingredients towards warming.
5) Global Average Temperature is, scientifically, an ill-defined parameter. You can have 25 Celsius throughout the globe, or temp ranging between 0 and 50 in a mix and still get the same global average. And then a mere 0.5 upwards on something that is variable ever since we started to measure (some 150 years out of 4.5 * 10**9 years that system existed).
5) The amount of irradiation every second received from sun, compared to the amount of stored stellar energy (wood, coal, oil, rapeseed, uranium from SupernovaExplosions before even the sun was there !) released by us per second is tremendous. Then, if our greenhouse (atmosphere) was so shaky that you and I driving to the bakery or biking to it made a difference then we are in B.S. - yes, I absolutely agree. And, obviously, I do agree that the artmosphere, and the lakes ..., are not a cheap dump for unconsiderate meddling around.
6) So, please, convince me that you know all the details to such a degree that you can PREDICT the last ice age from a 150 years of data immediately preceeding it. And then in addition convince me that you know for sure that my starting the car will trigger the system into a run-away condition. Predictably, we will have new models come along in 10 years which will explain the next down swing of temperatures by our costly (and energy intensive) frantic CO2 reduction laws. Self-fulfilling prophecy thats called.
7) Nevertheless, I do think that regardless of whether or not of CO2 importance, it is wise to save water, energy, ... But I am not going to jump on the band waggon to now invest considerable amounts of national gross product to truck petroleum generated insulation sheets across the world in order to save 5% of heating oil at the end users home - while the end user goes downtown to RadioShack to purchase yet another DVD player that will consume petroleum generated e-power even while in stand-by. There is big money to be earned now on this CO2 reduction scam.
B.t.w. Have you also figured in the amount of CO2 released by 6-8 Bn humans annualy by simply breathing. The 30-year war killed about 2/3 of the European population, and sure enough it got colder between 1650 to 1800. Everyone knows that this TRUE but IRRELEVANT correlation is nonsense. So is the one between us and the global working of the atmosphere - it is in the insignificant digits and we do not even know whether the sign is right.
(I am an astronomer, and fortunately we can not yet ask government to make the sun come back every morning 10 minutes earlier ... so much for why I think I can talk seriously about global energy input and energy balances)
So my conclusion: Stay informed, behave considerate (energy saving w.o. investing into energy-expensive "energy saving gadgets"), do not litter your own house (planet). But don`t get carried away - keep checking the total bill (economically and scientifically).
Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 6:40 am Post subject: Re: Bavaria: hottest, driest, sunniest April ever
I'm in Hamburg and enjoying best mid summer weather but worrying about the crops and how I will sweat it out in Juuly if this keeps up as I don'T come from Texas originally but from Alaska and am not used high temperatures.
Regarding gloabal warming and some sort of proof by thermometer measurements, I think that is largely irrelevant. Summer comes earlier everywhere as evidenced by all signs of plants and animals and insects and all wildlife is mnmoving farther north. All permafrost, ice, iocebergs etc. everywhere are melting rapidly. These are thr true signs, not arbitrary thermometers set up somewhere, but anecdotal evidence which is collected massively to show facts on the ground, real final effects on life on earth.
Regarding Greenland, I hear that they get lots of earthquakes there nowadays in July and August and that a slow melt is not in the cards but rather a quick breakup and slide off into the north atlantic with a big splash. This to show that earth weather systems are not linear but decidedly nonlinear and that anything can happen and very quickly. _________________ "The horror, the horror"
Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 6:41 am Post subject: Re: Bavaria: hottest, driest, sunniest April ever
kuebel wrote:
1) it is absolutely correct to serioulsy take in new information and insights one has on everything that might be relevant for the future ... I am concerned, would I visit the PO Board and similar Envi Boards otherwise ?
So am I
kuebel wrote:
2) it is one of the guiding principles of scientific / rational conduct to weight the insight with respect to all other knowledge AND IN PARTCULAR to the knowledge about NON-KNOWLEDGE.
Fully agreed.
kuebel wrote:
3) So, we do know that the climate has been changing all the time.
We do know that global temperatures and local ones have been going up and down. We do know that the composition of the atmosphere has something to do with it, as does the non-constancy of the irradiation from sun, as does the location and shape of continents, salt and what else content of sea water ....
Local climate could as well have an affect, as seen in the north way expansion of the Sahara-desert. Less plants provide less damp climate, provides less plants...
kuebel wrote:
4) We do not have a semi-complete theory that would even tell us how to predict the coming and going of an icing period. At the moment we do not even know for sure whether the increased level of CO2 is the RESULT of warimg or may one of the many ingredients towards warming.
Yes, and so as a result of this lack of knowledge/Information, I personal draw following conclusion: possible climate change is something between an inconvenience and an eminent threat to our civilisation as a whole and each being in particular. As climate seems to be rather complex and unstable designed and natural impacts may change local or global climate, further impacts caused by humans should be minimized in most possible ways. Even if it is unknown that any human activity affect global climate, we should adapt our, too economically driven behaviour to this possible circumstances. And if there is a great uncertainty of a possible run-away condition even more attention has to be paid. This may be a very conservative view and an economist would maybe say a phrase to me that I already heard: The heraldic animal of a structural engineer is the scaredy-cat
kuebel wrote:
5) Global Average Temperature is, scientifically, an ill-defined parameter. You can have 25 Celsius throughout the globe, or temp ranging between 0 and 50 in a mix and still get the same global average. And then a mere 0.5 upwards on something that is variable ever since we started to measure (some 150 years out of 4.5 * 10**9 years that system existed).
Global average temperature is indeed not a very good indicator, personally I favour the number of abnormal weather conditions, because due my understanding changing a rather steady state condition goes along with increased chaotic behaviour before eventually achieve another steady state condition. (I don’t know if strange weather patterns increase, maybe I just pay more attention, but as said above, better play it save.)
kuebel wrote:
5) The amount of irradiation every second received from sun, compared to the amount of stored stellar energy (wood, coal, oil, rapeseed, uranium from SupernovaExplosions before even the sun was there !) released by us per second is tremendous. Then, if our greenhouse (atmosphere) was so shaky that you and I driving to the bakery or biking to it made a difference then we are in B.S. - yes, I absolutely agree. And, obviously, I do agree that the artmosphere, and the lakes ..., are not a cheap dump for unconsiderate meddling around.
Hopefully it is not, as my bike just need to be repaired.
kuebel wrote:
6) So, please, convince me that you know all the details to such a degree that you can PREDICT the last ice age from a 150 years of data immediately preceeding it. And then in addition convince me that you know for sure that my starting the car will trigger the system into a run-away condition. Predictably, we will have new models come along in 10 years which will explain the next down swing of temperatures by our costly (and energy intensive) frantic CO2 reduction laws. Self-fulfilling prophecy thats called.
I can’t otherwise I would act like you mentioned above…
And yes it is nonsense that we first release CO2 for energy-supply and later collect it by using energy. Leave it in the ground in the first place.
kuebel wrote:
7) Nevertheless, I do think that regardless of whether or not of CO2 importance, it is wise to save water, energy, ... But I am not going to jump on the band waggon to now invest considerable amounts of national gross product to truck petroleum generated insulation sheets across the world in order to save 5% of heating oil at the end users home - while the end user goes downtown to RadioShack to purchase yet another DVD player that will consume petroleum generated e-power even while in stand-by. There is big money to be earned now on this CO2 reduction scam.
Absolute true, I didn’t want to promote such an idiotic behaviour, but I think I didn’t mentioned this clearly in my post. Actually IMO this behaviour is just the reason for most of our (possible) problems. We try to compensate our problems raised out of our compound society by ever more complexity. And big money is always made by bubbleing up anything.
kuebel wrote:
So my conclusion: Stay informed, behave considerate (energy saving w.o. investing into energy-expensive "energy saving gadgets"), do not litter your own house (planet). But don`t get carried away - keep checking the total bill (economically and scientifically).
Agreed, but I would not give too much on economic calculations as they are the root of a lot of unfortunate developments in our society within the last decades.
Finally I think the actual theory about (possible) climate change is not weird, seems rather logical, and need be considered when creating a worst case scenario for actual action and planning.
Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 6:59 am Post subject: Re: Bavaria: hottest, driest, sunniest April ever
kuebel wrote:
(I am an astronomer, and fortunately we can not yet ask government to make the sun come back every morning 10 minutes earlier ... so much for why I think I can talk seriously about global energy input and energy balances)
The G&M says that FOS has taken undisclosed sums from Alberta oil and gas interests. The money was funneled through the Calgary Foundation, to the University of Calgary and on to the FOS though something called the “Science Education Fund.”
All this appears to be orchestrated by Stephen Harper’s long-time political confidante and fishing buddy, U. Calgary Prof Dr. Barry Cooper. It seems the FOS has taken a page right out of the US climate change attack group’s playbook: funnel money through foundations and third party groups to “wipe the oil” off the dollars they receive.
This comes as no surprise considering the FOS has been linked to some of the most notorious oil money-backed scientists in the US, including Drs. S. Fred Singer, Sallie Baliunas, Sherwood Idso, Willie Soon, Robert C. Balling and Pat Michaels.
Posted: Wed May 02, 2007 4:41 pm Post subject: Re: Bavaria: hottest, driest, sunniest April ever
On the very quoted DeSMOG page, among other sceptical replies you also have the following, quote w.o. further comment:
Arno, is it unethical
Submitted by Dave Warner (not verified) on Wed, 2007-01-31 08:39.
Arno, is it unethical or very misguided to propose a differing view than that held by the mainstream? THAT's a scary thought. You should be happy that the climate change skeptics get as little credence as they do, and that the whole climate change issue is pretty much being accepted as fact, even though most people don't do much more research than watching "An Inconvenient Truth". I don't claim to know the whole story behind Friends of Science, and I have heard the claims that there are oil connections. As this wouldn't surprise me (in that I wouldn't put it past oil companies to do something like that), the information they are providing should not be dismissed quite yet as junk science. It is not only FOS who believes these things. Scientific progress, as you should know, has often benefited from debate by those holding opposing views. It would be unwise to try to extinguish "the other view", and it reeks of politics to do so. All I am saying is that it is not harmful to hear another opinion; it will not change the apparent fact that climate change is real, and I'm not trying to pick on you specifically. I think people on both sides of the issue can be accused of plugging their ears and saying "lalalalalala!". And don't get me wrong here, I am NOT happy with what we are doing to the planet. I am only trying to learn, like (hopefully) everybody else is. If I am dead wrong, I can and will accept that and try to learn the truth. But it is important to do your own research, and even more important not to dismiss critics who ultimately will be proven wrong if they are so. Anyone can cry "propaganda". Thanks.
Looks like another bad summer for the last glacier in Germany. _________________ "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." -- George Orwell
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B.t.w. Have you also figured in the amount of CO2 released by 6-8 Bn humans annualy by simply breathing. The 30-year war killed about 2/3 of the European population, and sure enough it got colder between 1650 to 1800. Everyone knows that this TRUE but IRRELEVANT correlation is nonsense. So is the one between us and the global working of the atmosphere - it is in the insignificant digits and we do not even know whether the sign is right.
