Joined: Sep 12, 2005 Posts: 276 Location: Victoria, Australia
Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 2:21 am Post subject: Re: Transition Phase One, Plans A/B/C
Pops wrote:
Anyone else thinking about this?
Every single day.
We have bought out little homestead. It's only 5 acres but as we are an older couple it's probably as much as we can reasonably use anyway.
Our biggest challenge here was water. The house had rainwater tanks attached, and although this is enough for our drinking water and household use, it is not sufficient for watering vege gardens or watering stock. For gardens and stock we have sunk a bore and were lucky to strike water at 70 metres. It's fairly heavy in iron, but great for our purpose.
Our house is mud brick which is great insulating. We use a wood burning stove which also heats the house and our water. We've decided against solar power as it's very expensive and out of our range right now. We'll just enjoy the power while it lasts and hopefully know enough to do without when it's gone.
We have put about 1/4 acre into vegetable gardens so far and manage to provide all our own vegetables and potatoes with some to spare. We also have about 30 chickens which we feed out of the garden, allow to free range and encourage back to the hen house at night with a few hands full of pellets. Down the track we plan to get a few sheep and maybe a cow. Our land is good and now that we have sufficient water we can grow enough to feed them.
Both hubby and I are retired and have a small nest egg as well as a superannuation pension. I don't know how long this will last when TSHTF, but we are using every spare penny now to get our tools and implements together.
We are considering buying a small tractor. Breaking ground for veges, pasture or a crop is darn hard work and although we know that oil will not last forever, at least the next couple of years would be easier. Hubby has experience with horses, but quite frankly they scare the bejezzus out of me. I can't bring myself to go into a paddock with one (I know, it's stupid ), so I can't see myself working with horse power.
I'm pretty good at food preserving, but I'd like to learn more. That's one of my major ambitions over the next 12 months. And also getting more preserving equipment. I'm terribly short of jars and the like. Little money for that now as we've just put in a tunnel house and putting aside money for the tractor. I'm not as organised as most here, as I haven't broken my tasks down into stages. We're just trying to do as much as we can while we can. I don't know if it will be enough, but I know that we are already close to feeding ourselves.
Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 5:35 am Post subject: Re: Transition Phase One, Plans A/B/C
I understand what Kochevnik is saying, and for many people the plan he has outlined is the smart move. I feel we've got a good few years before people really cop on to what's happening, and one should make the most of it to help prepare for TSHTF.
For me though, moving to the country is something I would have done anyway. I've wanted to do it since I was a child - PO just gave me the impetus to push forward with my plans as soon as I could. Self-sufficiency has always been on the cards for me, and I've made sure that I've got some money in the bank for hard times. While my plans may sound alarmist/doomerist to some, they're actually my dream come true and it feels perfectly "normal" to me. I feel like this is what I'm meant to be doing. If I'd waited in the city any longer, I'd have gone stir crazy.
I figured that if you look at a place like Cuba, with no oil inputs, you'll see the "rich" guys are the farmers and the poor guys are the city dwellers (a generalisation, humour me). It seems to me that above all else, cheap food will be in high demand when things go awry. Even in a recession, people will put their food needs before their iPod needs (one would hope. Those that don't can choke on their iPods for all I care). If you can grow your own food, and plenty of people do, then you're a step ahead of the game.
Different plans are right for different people. You have to do what *you* can do. _________________ We've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas.
I am only one. I can only do what one can do. But what one can do, I will do. -- John Seymour.
Joined: Aug 11, 2005 Posts: 717 Location: Eastern NC
Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 7:53 am Post subject: Re: Transition Phase One, Plans A/B/C
Excellent post Pop. Allows a planned prep. More digestible.
Though I tend to be more the plant and prep kind, Kochevnik's view allows one to step back and reexamine. That part about a suitcase under the bed is a very wise viewpoint. I think both the plant and prep, and the nomad route are both excellent routes, debating which is better assumes we know the future.
My T1 Plan A has been a lifetime goal anyway, stay out of debt. Origins of both Judeo/Christianity and Islam have generally regarded ussary, debt as bad anyway, someone else controls you. Plan B is the standard garden but planting as many different permacultures as possible, blueberries, jostaberries, grapes, prickly pear, elderberries, chestnut, goumi, pecan, blackberry, saskatoon blueberries, nanking cherry, persimmon,figs and being able to propagate each. This is all done on about 1/4 acre. Plan C, I figure being able to propagate these will be a big seller if thing go slowly downhill and folks want to start growing their own. If TSHTF then I'll eat things my neighbors won't even know is food. I've also tried a few edible wild plants for Plan D
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6501 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 8:25 am Post subject: Re: Transition Phase One, Plans A/B/C
Ditto what Ebyss just said. Not to turn this into another urban vs. rural thread but I’ll just quickly mention that I grew up in a rural/small town area and although my folks were not well off I always wanted a place of my own to do with what I liked and not need to answer to anyone – it just took me a while to get here.
But I agree entirely; timing IS everything! In our case I had been making a good living (top 10%?) for the 10 years or so before we jumped ship. But we were located about 80 miles inland from San Francisco and real estate had simply gone nuts due to the commuters. I had thought the market would continue to slow after the dot com bust and especially 9/11 but to my amazement it just kept going up and up!
9/11 forced me to pull my head out of the sand and look around to see what the heck was going on, I began reading about PO and realized the commuters driving the housing boom were about to run into problems and so was I.
My clients were to a large extent reliant on the housing ATM; car dealers, furniture companies, and even homebuilders for petes sake. Now I ain’t an expert at anything but I am old enough to know that real estate does NOT appreciate in a straight line and I couldn’t find anytime in the past (well since WWII anyway) when RE had continued rising so far so long.
PO or not, if the RE market simply leveled off I figured I might get by, but if it did a nosedive and interest rates rocketed like I have seen them do in the past we would not be able to refi our 15 year note with the BIG payment to a longer term.
Add PO to the mix...
So there we sat, our home had appreciated 250% in about 3 years, but we had the big overhead and the writing was on the wall for my personal economy – no use trying to make a sideways move in the same area, no real point in doing a refi to a longer term mortgage in light of PO.
We bailed in late 04, by late 06 gasoline was $3.50/gal out there, the RE the market was down 20% - if you could find a buyer, while out here it was up at least 10% if not more, and most importantly, all the clients I mentioned above had pulled back their advertising to approximately zilch. Had we not made our move when we did, we most assuredly would be toast.
So yea, T1 is all about timing and economics - for us T1 started about 3 years ago.
Sorry to be so long winded, I just wanted to make the point that one should really keep their eyes open and be brutally honest with themselves going forward; a year or two could make a big difference if and when things get bad. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Joined: Aug 14, 2005 Posts: 379 Location: Mississippi Delta
Posted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 10:04 am Post subject: Re: Transition Phase One, Plans A/B/C
Living in hurricane country, we are always in Plan D mode, though not necessarily as effectively as I would like. That involves a stock of staples, water, fuel, ammunition, etc.
My Plan A is to get established on some farmland I own upstate. We have moved in and are mostly getting the house habitable and planting buffer/cover crops to improve the soil (already some of the best in the world). We won't be permanent there for a while, so are postponing getting animals, but are working on some infastructure and educating ourselves. I need to either put in another well for drinking water or improvise a small rainwater system, maybe both. Oh, there's also preparing beds for vegetables, starting seeds, building a shed for starts, constructing bat houses, and making some of the storage areas more usable.
So far, we've put in sunflowers, buckwheat and castor beans in the buffer. We (by which I mean my SO, the cover-crop wonk) chose them for insectaries for beneficial insects, because they grow tall, and as an experiment in producing oil seeds. Next week, if the weather permits, I'll be spreading cow peas (iron and clay peas) and pearl millet in the fields for cover crops, and discing up the garden space. Then prepare beds. We'll be playing with plastic mulch at first, but I don't think it is something I want to get used to.
For Plan B, well, at least we'll be there. I also want to put a wind-operated pump on one of the wells with an elevated tank for gravity feed. This is something I want to do regardless, but for now it's a little lower on the priority list.
For Plan C, I have to consider that we're pretty close to town, about 5 miles from downtown and less than 3 from a Super Walmart. My partner has a good bike and I need to get one, as mine spent some time under water during Katrina. We're going to be educating ourselves on work animals over the next year or so. I plan to take up reloading ammunition for my main calibers, and already have most of the equipment I need.
Edited to add:
It is also probably a good idea to consider an alternative Plan B. That is the scenario in which the soft-landers or cornys are correct, and we manage to muddle through somehow, industrial culture survives, or most people decide they .want to live in a Blade-Runner world. It might be a good idea to not run off and give up the day job just yet... _________________ WWJD? What would Joel Salatin do?
The problem is that c and d could become normal parts of t2, and certainly par for the course by t3.
Planning for that- hmmm- very very tough...
Crap thuja, I was thinking exactly the same as I wrote out my plan.
I don’t remember right off the bat but didn’t the WOCAP model forecast a 35% decline by 2025? Not a good thing but still not the bottom of the barrel. I, in my optimistic way, believe that still isn’t plan C territory; at least not all the time, everywhere.
The way I see it from the vantage point of my nearly 50 years, 2025 is pretty far down the line for me – especially the way 2025 is starting to look. But, it isn’t that far for my kids and grandkids. Although the kids were raised to be pretty resourceful, they were raised in town. The son is in the USAF and son-in-law is in the Army – both with pretty high-tech specialties. Now they both are much more, uh, trained in Plan D skills, shall we say, than I? One carries his SAW to work and sticks it in a locker before sitting down at his terminal and the other has had the good survival school training - all a good thing.
However, in 2025 when they are my age and my grandkids are 30ish, I would like to think my wife and I will have been able to learn and in turn teach them how to get by on this and their own small plots. To be blunt, from our experience of almost 3 years here "in the hills" (and a lifetime of doing things which have given me a number of skills) that don’t happen overnight – and I'll wager it won't happen in the space of one of Dr. Bs transition phases either.
I mean on the one hand thuja and kochevnic, you are sniping that folks who are trying to get to a situation where they are somewhat less reliant on oil based infrastructure NOW are doing a knee-jerk, grab a gun and run for the hills, Rambo-fantasy rerun (which, to be honest, I haven't seen in this thread), and then say in the next breath that is part of your Plan B or Plan A for T2 and that no one but Jack is really prepared for the future.
Really, I’m not poking you two and don’t want this to turn into a big argument but I can’t help responding. You make very good points and I am the first to admit, getting a small plot is not for everyone – and in fact, I have said over and over and repeat it agin here: its not for most. I do appreciate your sharing your plans for exactly that reason and I hope more folks with differing plans will share theirs' too - I can only tell you what I am doing not what everyone shouild do.
I would love to have had a bigger pile of money to make more improvements around here or to buy a bunch of cool weapons or just to prolong my personal spending spree, but at some point, for many of us and our offspring certainly, the money is gonna run out no matter how much we have squirreled away and each will then need to rely on what they know…
Unfortunately, that only comes with experience; not money. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
On the land, fences are being removed and replaced with closely-planted willow hedging. With careful maintainence, these should be stock-proof within about 4 years.
Are these wattle fences, or very tight vertical plantings?
Hi
Two rows of live willow, 3 feet apart, about 18 inches between plants. This is partly from books, partly guesswork. As the hedges start to grow they can be 'laid' - partly cut-through at the base, then bent down and woven together. You get a tighter and tighter mesh as the thing grows (I hope!)
The plants themselves are just short lengths of cut branch pushed into the soil and mulched. Germination rate so far about 99% successful!
JPL _________________ The three most beautiful things in the world -
a full-rigged ship, a woman with child and a full moon.
What's the book, JPL? I'd kill for a good windbreak like that.
Patrick Whitefield - The Earth Care Manual, A Permaculture Handbook for Britain & Other Temperate Climates. There's not much about hedges but I got the spacing & mulching instructions from there. It's a great book though - covers a lot of stuff.
Also there is a page on hedge laying in Seymour's 'Forgotten Arts & Crafts'.
Failing that, just find an old hedge and look at it ;o)
If anyone's interested, I can take some shots of the hedges and upload them here.
BTW everyone, I didn't want to get into 'Urban vs Rural' debate either but I had explained that my strategy is to plan for the long-term. Trees take time to grow to maturity - you have to plant them NOW to have a sustainable crop of nuts, fruit & timber in time for 2020. I accept that I may go broke before I see the project out but SOMEONE will benefit.
If more people had thought like that 30 years ago then we wouldn't be in our current mess...
JPL _________________ The three most beautiful things in the world -
a full-rigged ship, a woman with child and a full moon.
Others know more about this than me but I have seen pictures of the process and as I remember there is a trunk left upright every so many feet – like a post. Locust or other fast growing tree has the advantage of natural barbs though.
I just googled “hedgerow” and got over a million hits - the truth is out there...
Somewhere.
Gotta love Google – though Big Brother it may turn out to be…. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Thanks JPL, I've heard of that book and it sounds great. I'll see if I can pick it up locally, if not, good 'ol Amazon should do it.
Pops, I've seen it done on River Cottage (self sufficiency program in the UK) and have coveted just such a hedge. It'll take a while to grow them trees though, as JPL says.
Quote:
Gotta love Google – though Big Brother it may turn out to be….
I read 1984 three weeks ago for the first time. Most terrifying book ever. I can't help but see little instances of it here and there in today's society and it really does send a shiver down my spine. _________________ We've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas.
I am only one. I can only do what one can do. But what one can do, I will do. -- John Seymour.
I mean on the one hand thuja and kochevnic, you are sniping that folks who are trying to get to a situation where they are somewhat less reliant on oil based infrastructure NOW are doing a knee-jerk, grab a gun and run for the hills, Rambo-fantasy rerun (which, to be honest, I haven't seen in this thread), and then say in the next breath that is part of your Plan B or Plan A for T2 and that no one but Jack is really prepared for the future.
Really, I’m not poking you two and don’t want this to turn into a big argument but I can’t help responding. You make very good points and I am the first to admit, getting a small plot is not for everyone – and in fact, I have said over and over and repeat it agin here: its not for most. I do appreciate your sharing your plans for exactly that reason and I hope more folks with differing plans will share theirs' too - I can only tell you what I am doing not what everyone shouild do.
No problem- I love the debate- yes you are right that at some point when scenarios c and d??? take over- there will be a very strong need to be able to procure food (and water) locally and there will be a lot of competition for this. At this point I think both Kochevnik and I are in agreement for a need to switch gears away from living off the fumes of the oil age.
Different from Kochevnik, I don't believe that I have the capability in terms of finances, time and energy to "go rural" and create a semi-sustainable farm. In fact- I think that is a recipe for disaster for me and ffor many many others and the reasoning comes down to economics. How could I support a mortgage and build the infrastructure of a farm and keep a day job to pay the bills simultaneously. Impossible...or maybe if I started snorting meth and didn't sleep anymore.
I believe that I need a dual plan- one that gives me an income in the city while developing skills for shifting to a scenario c/d world. For me that means making very good friendships with local farmers, learning how to hunt and fish and reducing my energy needs to a very low amount.
So I have chosen a dual route path. I am not chiding those who have chosen to go rural who have the needed capital, time and energy to get somegthing up and running. But frankly, most folks under 40 just don't have those three things- (especially not the money part).
Now if you have figured out a way to partner up with a number of young folks and can find relatively cheap land and some of you can quit your day jobs to start the endeavor of creating a running farm...then all power to you. But that road is very very hard...
So Pops- all power to you- you got out at the right time and you seem to have the capital to be able to pull it off. For others who are just starting to think about it and don't have a lot of money- I'm very very doubtful...
I think its important not to underestimate the difficulties of setting up a rural homestead. Even if one is pursuing lower-labor strategies, such as permaculture, the initial few years are very physically challenging, especially if you also, as most will, need to be earning an income by working a job. It's good to point this out as you have, thuja. _________________ No original ideas are contained in this post.
I think its important not to underestimate the difficulties of setting up a rural homestead. Even if one is pursuing lower-labor strategies, such as permaculture, the initial few years are very physically challenging, especially if you also, as most will, need to be earning an income by working a job. It's good to point this out as you have, thuja.
All the more reason to get on with it, as I was trying to say...
BTW Ludi, I am having problems now with my new-fangled mulched beds (as per our previous chats - grrr). Very poor spring germination/growth due to lower soil temperatures under the straw, too much sodden earth and now a sudden invasion of slugs, which I think have used the mulch as cover. 75% of the first plantings are already a write-off. If I have to eat pasta without sauce all winter it will now be totally your fault (but I will persist...)
JPL _________________ The three most beautiful things in the world -
a full-rigged ship, a woman with child and a full moon.
I'm one of those people pushing the run to the middle of nowhere and make a farm strategy. I'm doing it while working fulltime in town. I'm completely willing to admit that it's unbelievably hard. I get around 6 hours sleep and have been working myself close to the level of physical exhaustion for over a year now. If it wasn't for the fact that my day job is unbelievably slack I don't know if I could pull it off.
As it currently is I get up a 6am, get ready and go to work for 7:30. There I usually have the time to web surf/relax enough to partially recover. 5:00-5:30 I'm home and this time of year I have 3 hours to spend outside working the gardens or on the house, Back woods are offlimits due to limited light by 6:30 so I don't bother going there.
come 8:00 I move into the shop and continue work there.By 10 I'm almost always back in the house and can then do whatever is necessary there. Midnight it's bedtime. Weekends it's an 8:00 to 8:00 work day. Sometimes I take time off for a movie or to head to the range
Even working this hard I still have the feeling that I'm not getting enough done. If I wasn't working I wouldn't have the money to do what I am. I'm in awe of those pioneers that got off a boat/wagon in the middle of nowhere and decided here's the place and had to build a homestead while working to not starve at the same time. _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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My partner has a good bike and I need to get one, as mine spent some time under water during Katrina. We're going to be educating ourselves on work animals over the next year or so. I plan to take up reloading ammunition for my main calibers, and already have most of the equipment I need.
