For a minute there I thought I had to get off my couch, when all the while the fact is we don't have to do anything much but keep things afloat for just a few decades more! In fact, we'd best shut up about PO, because if our offspring finds out we knew about it all along, they'll turn and wring our necks come 2036!
Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 3:27 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Interesting point on diesel. I was reading a recent article on GTL future from the Gulf and elsewhere. The author was suggesting an ever growing demand for diesel in Europe that would likely have to be filled in the future by GTL.
We were seeing a lot on LNG change direction this past year from US bound to Europe bound because of the local market price advantage. Maybe the same is happening with diesel now?
Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 8:56 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
what would we be looking at should we see similar imports but an increase in operating capacity to replenish gasoline
If imports were 8.6 mbpd all the time, the situation would be completely unsustainable. However the imports are coming in erratically, 10.3 last week, 8.6 or so this week and it all averages out to about 9.4 at present.
The domestic production is about 5.1 mbpd. The crude oil provided to refineries maxes out at about 16 mbpd in the middle of summer, maybe a little less. So you can see that once the refineries pick up, which they will shortly, the 9.4 we are bringing in will not be enough to keep up and we will have a chronic inventory drawdown.
In fact, we will probably see the drawdown start at about mid-may, when refinery inputs will average about 15 mbpd, unless Opec gets friendly and decides to send us some more oil.
If we knew exactly what the imports were, we could calculate how long it would take to get our crude oil inventory down to a problematic level, maybe 275 million barrels. But as we have pointed out repeatedly, they will tap the SPR before we have any problems.
This will postpone the problem for awhile so that it does not become critical in an election year.
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 10:51 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Natural Gas:
EIA Natural Gas Storage Data
Total (04/04/0: 1,234 Bcf
Total (03/28/0: 1,248 Bcf
Change: -14 Bcf
Year ago stocks: 1,585 Bcf
% diff to yr ago: -22.1 %
5-year avg stocks: 1,257
% dif to 5-yr avg: -1.8 %
We are still drawing slightly on natural gas, but maybe next week this will be probably start to rebuild for fall.
The inventory, at 1234, is at a point where a normal replenishment cycle will put enough of this back into inventory.
Here are the inventory levels for the past several years that occurred at the time that the annual drawdown stopped:
In 2003, when the inventory got down that low, the inventory built back to 3100 bcf by the following fall drawdown.
If we got a couple of years back to back, there might be an issue. Also, two years ago, there was a drawdown in summer due to power demand, so that is a potential issue.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5487 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 11:38 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Indications are that even while (non-Mideast) OPEC may be planning to increase production by about 100,000 in the second half of April, all of that extra increase will be going to Asia. So it doesn’t appear right now that the US oil imports will diverge much from being about 9.6 mbpd in April and maybe May.
In regards to the low crude import total in yesterday’s report, I chalk up the difference from the expected 9.6 mbpd to a brief problem in Mexican ports, and some erratic closures in the Houston Ship Channel. In addition, I believe the EIA made a downward adjustment of about 3 million barrels, which I think corrects month end January inventories, but possibly corrects some other type of mistake [edit: this adjustment is to the final inventory amount and does not adjust weekly imports]. Therefore I think only about 1 ur 2 million barrels or so was delayed, and will probably show up in next week’s numbers.
Last edited by DantesPeak on Thu Apr 10, 2008 4:47 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 2:12 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
FreddyH wrote:
pup55 March 6th wrote:
A couple more weeks like this, and then maybe we will be into spring, maybe another 520 bcf draw which will put the inventory at about 1000 or maybe a little less.
The working nat'l gas draw was a mere 135-Bcf last week. IMHO, in the absence of polar highs the last three weeks, it is unlikely that levels will breach 1400 and almost impossible to approach 1300.
Today's 1234-Bcf probable trough underscores the nat'l gas realities in the USA. Production is up an incredible 6% mostly due to foothills development and this 1234-Bcf bottoming is much higher than the "1000 or less" predicted by pup55. And it was done w/o increased LNG imports and with the Canadian industry shunning exports due to persistent low prices below ten bucks.
Dire warnings for a crunch prior to 2010 are again dismissed as import options are reassessed... _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5487 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 3:57 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
FreddyH wrote:
And it was done w/o increased LNG imports and with the Canadian industry shunning exports due to persistent low prices below ten bucks.
Once again, you’ve made some glaringly incorrect statements, which are all the more irritating because they concern pup55 – who is one of the most careful posters here about reviewing the source materials of his posts.
Natural gas imports into the US increased substantially last year, including imports from Canada and LNG.
I think you also missed the closure of a major NG hub yesterday:
Quote:
Leak Shuts Independence Natural Gas Hub in Gulf of Mexico, 900 MMcf Shut-in April 9
Repairs to Take One to Four Weeks
Enterprise Products Partners reports that production at the Independence Hub natural gas platform at Mississippi Canyon Block 920 in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in as a result of a leak on the Independence Trail export pipeline. The leak was suspected when bubbles were discovered on April 8 and was confirmed on April 9. The system was moving between 850 and 900 MMcf/d of natural gas when it was shut. According to a DOE model, that loss represents 11 percent overall loss of production from federal waters. Enterprise estimates that the repairs
will take one to four weeks to complete. Concerns about the impact of the outage on gas storage helped drive the price up to $10.05 at closing, nearing a two year high. Although the amount of gas in storage is nearly 20 percent below the amount at this time last year only about 0.5 percent above the five-year average, the timing of the outage is fortuitous in that it follows the peak winter demand and comes before peak summer demand.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5487 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 4:52 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Northeast US supplies of diesel (PADD 1) continue to be drained away by exports:
Quote:
NEW YORK, April 10 (Reuters) - New York Harbor distillates firmed on Thursday amid tight regional stockpiles and high export demand, ..., dealers said.
Traders said low inventories around PADD 1 and strong demand for distillates from Europe and South America -- particularly Chile -- were behind the strength.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 4:57 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
DantesPeak wrote:
FreddyH wrote:
And it was done w/o increased LNG imports and with the Canadian industry shunning exports due to persistent low prices below ten bucks.
Once again, you’ve made some glaringly incorrect statements, which are all the more irritating because they concern pup55 – who is one of the most careful posters here about reviewing the source materials of his posts.
Natural gas imports into the US increased substantially last year (a subject which I posted about many times before – where were you then?), including imports from Canada and LNG.
DP, the Peak of USA imports of Canadian nat'l gas was in 2002. Your reference of a recent hiccup is irrelevant. Imports from Canada will not exceed 2002 levels until prices stabilize above ten bucks. Your reference to a one day or two day spike reflects your lack of perspective...
Similarly, your commitment to annual data is the basis for your lack of understanding of the dynamics in play wrt LNG. The Peak of USA LNG monthly imports was 99-Bcf back in April 2007. By December 2008 it was down to a dribble of 21-Bcf.
This Spring's excellent working gas trough was accomplished w/o record imports from Canada & with half the LNG winter imports of LNG compared to 2006/2007. Your analyis is nonsense.
If bullish prices prevail, the USA is in excellent position to import from Canada & LNG imports to satisfy Demand out to 2012. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 5:10 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
DantesPeak wrote:
Once again, you’ve made some glaringly incorrect statements, which are all the more irritating because they concern pup55 – who is one of the most careful posters here about reviewing the source materials of his posts.
I did not criticize pup55's source material. It was your own provided data that was irrelevant to the specific post.
If i have a criticism of pup55 at all, it was that his musing of working gas troughing below 1000-Bcf back on March 6th was terribly irresponsible in light of the data. It was a typical McPeakster dire prediction that again failed. We see them every Spring... _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 7:25 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
his musing of working gas troughing below 1000-Bcf
(sigh)
Sorry for any confusion. When I make a prediction I usually identify it explicitly as such.
You have correctly identified it as "musing", which in this case was imagining the worst case scenario. I would have defended it at the time, but skipped it because I though it was trivial.
However, good job in calling me on it. I play out scenarios all the time, but when I settle on one as a "prediction" I will start noting it more carefully and then review later, as you have done.
Quote:
almost impossible to approach 1300
By the way, this scenario was a little off as well. However, since you did not label it as a "prediction" no harm.
Crude Oil Prediction 11-Apr
Beginning Inventory 316
Domestic Prod 35.42 5.06
Imports 71.4 10.2
Total Available 422.82
Provided to Refineries 100.8 14.4
Ending Inventory 322.02
Predicted Change 6.02
Ref Utilization
83
This week is where we will test the theory that sometimes it is better being some guy on the internet than it is being a real analyst. We know that the crude oil imports have been really variable, the last few weeks, over 10 one week, under 9 the next. Since last week's imports were only 8.6, it suggests we are in for a heavy week. So, I can easily guess imports of 10.2, and a build in inventory of about 6, because the consequences if I am wrong will be minimal. If I was a real analyst, I would guess something like 9.5 or 9.6, because I would have to be more conservative.
Anyway, I still think that we are in rough balance right now, if you smooth out all of the bumps between refinery inputs and crude oil imports. The market will have some gyrations when this news comes out every week, but the net impact is, until refinery utilization picks up, which it won't until margins improve (and you and I are paying even more for gas) the current situation will prevail.
In unleaded, right after Easter and before May, there is typically a low driving period, maybe we will grow some from last year, and maybe not. The "gap" which we measure every week will provide higher apparent demand than is measured by the products supplied, and we will have another 3.5 or 4 mbpd drawdown from inventory. I think we said in the above thread that this, too, will go on until the current pricing regime changes.
In distillates, we got one more shot of winter up around the lakes. This will cause demand to be maybe a little less than last week, but still pretty high.
So, a big build in crude oil, and sizeable drawdowns in the products is the prediction of the week.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5487 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:53 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Thanks pup55. It is indeed difficult some weeks to know what those oil imports and stocks will be.
It may be particulary hard next week (in the report on April 23) to estimate these due to Capline pipeline shutdown and the fact that Mexico's oil export ports were shut again today.
The Capline shutdown caused gasoline/diesel prices to rise 1.5 cents/gallon in the Midwest vs. NYC prices, which is not a huge gain, so there are no indications yet that we are near minimum operating levels for gasoline, diesel, and oil.
But we may be for jet fuel. I am certainly no expert on this subject, but jet fuel prices continue to skyrocket. Apparently jet fuel is needed elsewhere in the world and this has caused US supplies to be exported - despite a wave of bankruptcies and schedule cancellations.
Quote:
Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires on average predict the data will show that last week crude stockpiles rose by 1.4 million barrels, gasoline stockpiles fell by 1.5 million barrels and stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell by 1.4 million barrels.
Refinery use increased by 0.8 percentage point to 83.8% of capacity, according to the average forecast.
The EIA's data haven't generated predictable reactions in the market lately. After data released two Wednesdays ago showed crude stockpiles rose by 7.3 million barrels in the week ended March 28, front-month Nymex crude jumped $3.85 a barrel in one day.
"I certainly expect to see inventories continue to build," said Stephen Schork, Villanova, Pa.-based editor of the energy markets newsletter the Schork Report.
But the oil market has spiraled higher since the start of the year, he noted, even though U.S. crude inventories have climbed about 9% over the same period.
"A build this Wednesday, for me and the market, means nothing," Mr. Schork said.
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 9:35 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
DantesPeak wrote:
Thanks pup55. It is indeed difficult some weeks to know what those oil imports and stocks will be.
It may be particulary hard next week (in the report on April 23) to estimate these due to Capline pipeline shutdown and the fact that Mexico's oil export ports were shut again today.
The Capline shutdown caused gasoline/diesel prices to rise 1.5 cents/gallon in the Midwest vs. NYC prices, which is not a huge gain, so there are no indications yet that we are near minimum operating levels for gasoline, diesel, and oil.
But we may be for jet fuel. I am certainly no expert on this subject, but jet fuel prices continue to skyrocket. Apparently jet fuel is needed elsewhere in the world and this has caused US supplies to be exported - despite a wave of bankruptcies and schedule cancellations.
Geeze, don't tell Phill Flynn about the shortage of jet fuel,
he may short it.
I don't follow it much eigher, but I guess jet fuel is somewhere between diesel, which is short globally, and gasoline, which has relatively high inventories right now.
Quote:
this has caused US supplies to be exported
Someone will buy it, like one or more of the Chinese airlines.
Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 4:19 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Gosh!
You manage to post these 2 sentences back to back:
Quote:
The working nat'l gas draw was a mere 135-Bcf last week. IMHO, in the absence of polar highs the last three weeks, it is unlikely that levels will breach 1400 and almost impossible to approach 1300.
Quote:
Today's 1234-Bcf probable trough underscores the nat'l gas realities in the USA.
And still feel at ease criticising so strongly the scenarios presented by others? (Others much better then yourself, but forget that...)
I would say that is an amazing feat of self indulgence...
I dare believe that you will still keep the same posture even if the stocks really end going bellow 1000...
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: 1,234 Bcf
