Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 12:01 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
EIA Natural Gas Storage Data
Total (05/02/0: 1,436 Bcf
Total (04/25/0: 1,371 Bcf
Change: 65 Bcf
Year ago stocks: 1,720 Bcf
% diff to yr ago: -16.5 %
5-year avg stocks: 1,447
% dif to 5-yr avg: -0.8 %
Quote:
U.S. natural gas inventories could be at seriously low levels at the start of winter this year, if current rates of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports remain at record lows, a Goldman Sachs report said Wednesday.
The year is already two months into the summer re-fill season when producers traditionally stock up on cheap gas volumes to sell on more profitably in winter, but so far storage facilities have gone unused as prices remain high.
Freddy and I did the calculations on this a few weeks ago, and I thought at the time the situation is something that the market can cope with next year, but you do not know what will happen later on.
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 7:02 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
Analysts at Goldman and firms such as Barclays Capital believe tight global supplies and growing demand from fast-growing economies in countries such as China and India are driving oil higher. But Gheit and analysts including Tim Evans at Citi Futures Perspective argue that supply and demand fundamentals don't support such high prices.
There is no reason why oil prices should be above $60," Gheit said, noting that domestic crude supplies are at average levels, and that refineries are cutting gasoline production as high prices cut consumers demand for fuel. "The physical supplies do not justify the price, it just doesn't make sense."
I agree with his idea that inventories are adequate at the moment. we sort of said this earlier, that there is nothing in these inventory numbers that is causing a panic.
I don't agree with the point on speculation driving the price.
There might be inventory numbers elsewhere, such as China, or demand forecasts, or the persistent strong demand we see in the weekly report, or diminished production in places like Mexico that could very well be the cause of a panic, and we do not know about it because we have incomplete information about the marketplace.
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 12:52 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
As I see it, the inventory levels will stay mostly in a "comfortable" range. And the oil price will still continue to rise. The reason behind this situation is that if the oil price didn't rise, then the consumption would be higher and the inventory levels would get very "uncomfortable". The oil price simply has to rise yoy in order to maintain inventory levels in a comfortably range.
Joined: Jan 14, 2008 Posts: 321 Location: The Yukon
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 1:43 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
SteinarN wrote:
As I see it, the inventory levels will stay mostly in a "comfortable" range. And the oil price will still continue to rise. The reason behind this situation is that if the oil price didn't rise, then the consumption would be higher and the inventory levels would get very "uncomfortable". The oil price simply has to rise yoy in order to maintain inventory levels in a comfortably range.
Yours is an excellent analysis. thanx. _________________ www.TrendLines.ca/scenarios.htm Home of the Real Peak Date ... set by geologists (not pundits)
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 6:35 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
lol
my understanding is we'll continue to have full inventories for perhaps a few years into the future. The developed countries will just continue outbidding the poorer countries for the oil. But the more the 3rd world countries are outbid, the higher the price will be driven.
To study the effects we really should be looking at the poorer countries. There is where actual shortages will show up first.
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 7:09 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
You are right on that. One need only look at the 'global fuel shortage" thread to see where it is hitting first.
Africa is a basket case, and has been for a year. A lot of these places, which were kind of rough in the first place, have been basically without fuel for the last year.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4508 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 7:51 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Pup-
In regards to natural gas, which currently is nearing $12, do you see the price remaining around these levels for next winter? At this price right now, a lot of people would be hurting bad. That is like a 30-40% increase over what prices were for most of the heating season. Next winter could fold a lot of people around here. Most people i know had heating bills around $200-400 for roughly 4-5 months, now double that!
Thank god i have a brand new wood stove/including all the piping ready to be installed. Now i just need some more wood. _________________ Politicians always blame big oil...why not blame big cheese? Cheddar is $5 a pound.
-frankthetank
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 8:14 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
do you see the price remaining around these levels for next winter?
Our crafty gas provider, which I believe is MX Energy sent us a friendly offer the other day, to "lock in" our rates for next winter at a level slightly above the current prices. What that tells me is that they think that the price will go down, and want to panic as many customers as possible to lock in to the current high rates, and/or understand what their demand will be so they can hedge on the market for next year's prices.
We will know a lot better in about August. I personally did not lock in my rate, because I think the September/October period has a chance to be like it was in the fall of 2006, when everything slowed way down and there was some relief in pricing.
Of course, this stuff has gone from the mid 9-s to mid 11-s in about three weeks, and counterseasonally to boot, so I cannot tell for sure what will happen. I can only tell you what I actually did.
I did the calculation to see how much money we are talking about anyway, taking into consideration the number of therms I use in a given year, and I went through some scenarios, and it amounted to a couple of hundred bucks over the course of the winter, but I live where it is not all that cold, plus I have a couple of months pay invested in FSNGX, which has been rocking and rolling, so to me it is not all that critical of a decision.
But, you are right. The first big gas bills will start to roll in just about election day, and on top of the unleaded, a lot of people are going to be having problems. The candidates will spend their time arguing about boys kissing, as Jon Stewart would say, rather than about this important issue, and it will get even worse in January, especially if you guys up there have the same kind of endless winter you did this year.
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 3:56 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
frankthetank wrote:
Pup-
In regards to natural gas, which currently is nearing $12, do you see the price remaining around these levels for next winter? At this price right now, a lot of people would be hurting bad. That is like a 30-40% increase over what prices were for most of the heating season. Next winter could fold a lot of people around here. Most people i know had heating bills around $200-400 for roughly 4-5 months, now double that!
Thank god i have a brand new wood stove/including all the piping ready to be installed. Now i just need some more wood.
alot of people are hurting bad with gasoline prices, so another source of pain should not be too bad. Nat gas as a source of energy
has to go higher because it is cheaper(at the moment) than oil
and thus create a higher demand as an alternative.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4508 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Sat May 10, 2008 8:21 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Pup...
Thanks. I've got my chainsaw, and i'll be looking for trees now Hopefully hurricanes can leave the gulf alone and fall ends up being mild (temps). Yes winter has never ended. Its snowing today up in N. Dak and N MN... Just give me the heat.
I'll pull up my gas bills from last winter and see what the current price would do. _________________ Politicians always blame big oil...why not blame big cheese? Cheddar is $5 a pound.
-frankthetank
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 8:52 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports 2007-08
This thread has been closed.
The new thread is here. _________________ I have days--growing more frequent all the time--when I'm convinced the time is now upon us that some Big Events are about to occur. - Ron Paul
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: 1,436 Bcf
Hopefully hurricanes can leave the gulf alone and fall ends up being mild (temps). Yes winter has never ended. Its snowing today up in N. Dak and N MN... Just give me the heat.
