Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Well, it looks like our friends Sam and Guy are on the phone trying to find some unleaded and some crude oil, because the imports of those two materials affected this report a lot. Crude oil imports over 10.0 two weeks in a row have only happened once this year, and this is the highest unleaded imports in a long time.
The little build in distillates was caused by the .1 mbpd extra production, plus fewer exports this week, but this is just data noise we are seeing.
The refiners running at 85.4% is actually a little lower than our little model we had the other day, but as long as our friendly importers are working so hard to get this stuff in the country, and the margins are low, there is no hurry on this.
The market will probably say "whew" and sell off on this news, but we well know that demand for gasoline is still up over last year, and we remain strung out on a long supply chain which leads right to our gas tanks.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1567 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 9:46 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending April 25, 2008
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.7 million barrels per day during the
week ending April 25, down 79,000 barrels per day from the previous week's
average. Refineries operated at 85.4 percent of their operable capacity last
week. Gasoline production moved higher compared to the previous week, averaging
nearly 9.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production rose last week,
averaging 4.2 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 10.2 million barrels per day last week, up 174
thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude
oil imports have averaged 9.5 million barrels per day, 691 thousand barrels per
day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports
(including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week
averaged nearly1.4 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 273
thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.8 million barrels from the previous week. At
319.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the
average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased
by 1.5 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average
range. Finished gasoline inventories rose last week while gasoline blending
components inventories declined during this same time. Distillate fuel
inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels, and are in the lower half of the
average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by
0.9 million barrels last week. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased
by 8.9 million barrels last week, and are in the lower half of the average range
for this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.7
million barrels per day, up by 0.5 percent compared to the similar period last
year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.3
million barrels per day, up by 0.4 percent from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel demand has averaged about 4.3 million barrels per day over the
last four weeks, up 0.7 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand
is 4.2 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week
period last year.
_________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 11:06 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
Domestic Crude production -101
This number is particularly interesting. With the exception of a crash and near-recovery blip at the time of Katrina, this has been in steady, slow decline, the flat part of the decline curve so to speak.
I think if you check the other nations that are long post-peak, the curve looks the same.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4168 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 12:19 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Most important thing of this report is gas usage. Its still up and until i see that start dropping, i know prices are going nowhere but up. Demand isn't being stopped by 3.60 gasoline. Refineries also seem in no hurry to make gasoline with this increase in imports. Maybe next week. _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 6:09 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
It appears we are starting to see the jump in gasoline imports again, albeit on a bit of a delayed basis. Now it is just a matter of being able to get back up to last years levels.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5201 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 3:54 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
Oil Movements: OPEC shipments to rise 0.2% to average 24.62M bbls in month ending May 17th
This above headline is about all I could find out about this week’s Oil Movements report, usually issued on Thursday. Anyway that’s much the same level where it has been the last few weeks. So it appears that OPEC exports recovered a little early on in April, but then leveled off.
My WAG was that US crude imports would average about 9.5 mbpd turns out to be very close to what actual imports were over the last four weeks (per yesterday’s EIA report). Based upon what Oil Movements says, and some articles about increased shipments to Asia, I look for oil imports into the US to be stuck around 9.5 mbpd for the next month or so. That’s really not very good.
Offsetting the bad news about oil imports was a healthy amount of gasoline imports, reaching a level we haven’t seen for awhile - about 1.4 mbpd last week. Imports at about this level must continue to avoid outright gasoline shortages later this year – assuming that oil imports, refinery product output, and consumer demand stay about where they are now.
Some refiners have admitted in their recent earnings releases that they did indeed try to maximize the output of distillates at the expense of less profitable gasoline. They’ve succeeded in continuing their counter-cyclical increase in distillate output these last three weeks (using EIA’s production by product statistics). But US refiners have a limited ability to produce much more, if any, diesel and other distillates, which is bad for them but good for the American driver that wants steady supplies and low prices for gasoline.
Going forward, US distillate demand remains subdued due to late season bad weather curbing farming activity. So it looks like there will no diesel shortages anytime soon – despite total distillate inventories being 15 million barrels less than last year and a significant increase in US diesel exports since February. Getting through the harvest season will be another matter we’ll address later.
This week, we should get further into the transition period between spring and summer. The rate of refinery production last week increased at just about the trajectory that we suggested in our little model. So, if you take this production level, about 9.1 mbpd of unleaded, add 1.2 mbpd of imports (which would be down from last week's 1.4 mbpd) and the current respectable level of demand, we will have a small draw in inventory. Note that if the imports are as strong as they were last week, it will mean an additional 1.4 million barrels of inventory, so we will be in a breakeven situation.
In refinery usage we should be up around 86% with refinery inputs at 15 or just under. At this rate, the inventory change will be 100% dependent on crude oil imports. If it is over 10 like it has been the last couple of weeks, we will continue to see building inventory. If it goes back down to 9.6, we will see potentially significant drawdowns.
In distillates, we will see continued high demand and strong production.
Right now, at this point of the year, we are roughly in balance on petroleum products. Maybe there will be inventory build some weeks, when the imports are high, and maybe a little draw. At the middle of summer, we will be consistently drawing down inventory. Inventory stability will depend on imports, and that will in turn depend on how deep our pockets are.
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 9:04 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
Tomorrow traders will watch the weekly US government report on fuel inventories, which is expected to show a 1,8 million-barrel build in crude stocks, a 1,1 million-barrel rise in distillate inventories and a 100 000-barrel fall in gasoline stocks.
Oil prices may rise to between $150 and $200 a barrel within two years because of a lack of adequate supply growth, Goldman Sachs analysts led by Arjun N. Murti said in a report yesterday.
``The last few days we've all been looking for facts that fit the move in prices,'' said Peter Beutel, president of energy consultant Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut. ``For the most part the increase in prices is due to momentum, not any specific headline.''
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 6:17 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
Weekly U.S. oil inventory data due Wednesday could provide guidance for the market later in the week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect crude stockpiles rose by 1.4 million barrels last week, the third increase in a row. Gasoline stockpiles fell by 400,000 barrels, the analysts estimate, while distillates rose by 800,000 barrels. The rate of refinery use is expected to climb by 0.4 percentage point to 85.8% of capacity.
Posted: Tue May 06, 2008 6:22 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
pup55 said:
Quote:
Oil prices may rise to between $150 and $200 a barrel within two years because of a lack of adequate supply growth, Goldman Sachs analysts led by Arjun N. Murti said in a report yesterday.
There has been a lot of criticism of this report in the financial press and blogs. Even though crude prices have increased an average of 34% over the last SIX years, while at the same time US GDP has been falling for six years, this report should come as no surprise to the markets. Strangely enough, it seems to have in many quarters!
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 8:21 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
The Energy Department is scheduled to release its weekly report on inventories today at 10:30 a.m. in Washington. Oil supplies advanced 1.63 million barrels in the week ended May 2 from 319.9 million barrels, according to Bloomberg's survey.
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 9:37 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Well. Inventory report shows 5.7M crude build! Also 0.8M gasoline build. Imports must be really ramping up. Will be interesting to see the breakdown. My question is obviously where are they coming from?
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1567 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 9:41 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
Quote:
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending May 2, 2008
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 14.7 million barrels per day
during the week ending May 2, down 99,000 barrels per day from the previous
week's average. Refineries operated at 85.0 percent of their operable capacity
last week. Gasoline production moved lower compared to the previous week,
averaging about 8.7 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production remained
unchanged last week, averaging 4.2 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 10.6 million barrels per day last week, up 413
thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude
oil imports have averaged 9.9 million barrels per day, 244 thousand barrels per
day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports
(including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week
averaged nearly 1.5 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged
187 thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.7 million barrels from the previous week. At
325.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the middle of the
average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased
by 0.8 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average
range. Finished gasoline inventories fell last week while gasoline blending
components inventories increased during this same time. Distillate fuel
inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels, and are in the lower half of the
average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by
1.3 million barrels last week. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased
by 5.5 million barrels last week, and are in the middlr of the average range for
this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 20.6 million
barrels per day, up by 0.1 percent compared to the similar period last year.
Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.3 million
barrels per day, up by 0.3 percent from the same period last year. Distillate
fuel demand has averaged about 4.2 million barrels per day over the last four
weeks, down 0.5 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 5.8
percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period
last year.
Who cares what the price is? People keep on drivin'. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 9:48 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (New Thread)
There was a draw in finished gasoline--not good.
BTW, how much of our total oil processed is light sweet crude as opposed to heavy sour? Does this ratio, in part, explain refineries running at only 85%? _________________ Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease
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