How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Mon Sep 27, 2004 5:25 pm Post subject: THE State of Hawaii Thread (merged)
This was our backup plan before the whole draft deal came into play, me being an 18yr old, Im now considering moving outside the country. But this was the plan me and my parents were going to implement as a survival plan:
I was born in Hawaii, which has a tropical climate sustainable to grow many sustainable crops. It being an island, it rains a lot, around 70 inchs a year usually at night- leaving the daytime sunny and bright- perfect for energy collection. It is part of the USA, meaning that it would not be to hard to set up Solar Energy, backup generators, water catchment, food storage, gas storage. I will not publicly state the town I am planning to live in, only that its population is around 500, mostly hippie- potgrowing ( I guess I could call it an agriculture town!) folks who already live on water-catchment, no electricity, etc. The nearest town of 100,000 is 55 miles away, however the town is located up the mountain away from the main roads- I highly doubt hungry looters could make their way to the remote town. The property is an acre and costs around 100,000$, and includes a 2 bedroom house, guest house (lodge), it already has trees and its own water catchment system.
Food: mangos, avocados, papaya, guava, bananas, pineapple, all can grow with ease, all are fruit producing trees that naturally grow in the tropical climate. Also with addition of rich soil its easy to maintain a garden; lettuce, tomatoes, carrots, potatos, etc. all grow great here.. With about 1-2 acres on which I could grow trees (avocado, papaya, banana, apples, oranges). As well as a garden, including what food most people would grow in the garden, vegtables, greens, etc. To setup the garden, buy large masses of dirt, seeds, trees, I would estimate the cost around 10-20 thousand dollars.
Backup Food: We are planning to buy a 1/2 size matson storage container in which to store a food supply; rice, flour, noodles, beans, canned foods, etc- we would spend about 10,000-20,000$ setting up a food supply, which would be stored in the locked matson container.
Water: The property we are looking at already has two, 10,000gallon water catchment tanks- the area is located in a somewhat arid tropical forrest and gets about 70 inchs of rain a year. Water should not be to big of a problem in this area since the area is on catchment anyways. If this does not seem suitable, a possible cost of an extra catchment tank is about $5,000.
Energy: We plan to hook up 8 solar panels on the south facing roof, two to heat a water tank hooked up to the catchment system. The other 6 panels would store energy in a generator type battery storage system for the use of electrical household supplies; a possible mini-fridge, electric stove, microwave, radio, music, just for a occasional electric use. The solar system could cost between 10,000-15,000 depending on what we chose to do.
Transportation We plan to buy a hybrid vechicle, and build a 20,000g underground gas storage tank. We are unsure about this part, as to the legality of it and how much it would cost, but it would be expensive. (20,000ga X 2$ a gallon, thats for the gas alone) We are exploring buying a horse or two for transportation, but this is the one part we are unsure of.
Security Fencing, guns, dogs, etc are all possible forms of protecting our property from looters. Once again we are unsure of this part but it wouldn't be to expensive to implement and it would secure our sustainable land.
Are there any other things I should look at when planning a sustainable plot of land on which to live once the crash occurs? The food, water, energy, transportation and security have already been looked over, but is there anything else? Does this seem like a wise place to live post-peak? The total costs could be anywhere between 250,000-400,000, but we have the money liquid and can do it as soon as this christmas.
So what do you all think??? (if you are interested in the place im planning on staying in, and want to know more about the area email me at (skateari@hot-shot.com) so we can talk, we are looking for others interested in this to maybe follow threw with our plan.
Joined: May 17, 2004 Posts: 1969 Location: Democratic People's Republic of Washington
Posted: Tue Sep 28, 2004 12:40 am Post subject:
There is a product on the market called Sta-Bil. It extends the shelf life of gasoline by preserving the bonds that compose the substance. This works wonderfully, as when I bought my vehicle, the car had been sitting for ten years before I drove it away. Yes, the car cranked for about 30 seconds, but I place that on a bad battery, because after buying a replacement battery, I was able to start the vehicle with no problem. Sta-Bil comes in a 32 ounce bottle, and it will treat 80 gallons of fuel. So for a 20,000 gallon storage tank, you would need to put in 250 bottles of Sta-Bil. Each bottle costs approximately $8.50, so you would end up spending about $2,125.00 to preserve the fuel. A 20,000 gallon underground tank will cost you about $9,000.00 USD,, and the price of fuel at $2.00 a gallon would be $40,000.00 USD. So the total cost just for the tank full of preservable fuel would cost you around $50,125.00. Then you need to purchase the fuel lines, and the fuel pump to actually make use of the fuel. The total cost of a setup like this would cost you about $55,125.00 USD. _________________ Here Lies the United States Of America.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3428 Location: California, USA
Posted: Tue Sep 28, 2004 6:31 am Post subject:
When you ask "how does Hawaii sound?" I can't help but think "it sounds like putting yourself out on a very thin limb."
Islands are inherently problematic, they have lower redundancy of resources and higher dependence on transportation (shipping) than mainland locations.
I personally do not intend to be on an island when the fertilizer hits the ventilator.
kochevnik: Thanks for your help, however I disagree about the fact that I will be in my 30's when this happends. Thats a totaly nieve and unjust thing to say, being the fact that we peaked on oil within the last few days. I say I would be lucky to be in my 20's by the time that happend. Where do you get the idea that we will have 12+ years to do this when in 12 years we will have about 2/3-1/2 the gasoline availible compared with today?? This is happening right here, right now. And I dont think we have much time to prepare. Telling me to wait and that we have time is not a wise thing to say when really time is the key, and this could all hit the fan tommorow for all we know. Thanks anyways though
Thanks everyone else for your comments, its really hard deciding a place to do something like this and any help is appricated!
Joined: Aug 14, 2004 Posts: 2063 Location: San Diego, Ca.
Posted: Tue Sep 28, 2004 10:08 pm Post subject:
Quote:
Thats a totaly nieve and unjust thing to say, being the fact that we peaked on oil within the last few days.
skateari, nobody knows if we have already peaked. Please relax a little bit. Don't run to the hills just yet. Hang out in the forums, ask questions, listen and learn about the problem. The first "phase" of preparation is understanding the problems you face (Peak Oil). _________________ "Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz
kochevnik: Thanks for your help, however I disagree about the fact that I will be in my 30's when this happends. Thats a totaly nieve and unjust thing to say, being the fact that we peaked on oil within the last few days. I say I would be lucky to be in my 20's by the time that happend. Where do you get the idea that we will have 12+ years to do this when in 12 years we will have about 2/3-1/2 the gasoline availible compared with today?? This is happening right here, right now. And I dont think we have much time to prepare. Telling me to wait and that we have time is not a wise thing to say when really time is the key, and this could all hit the fan tommorow for all we know. Thanks anyways though. Thanks everyone else for your comments, its really hard deciding a place to do something like this and any help is appricated!
skateari, dude you gotta chill.
I am seeing the same market indications as you are. Yes these indications seem to show the early arrival of peak oil, but and this is very important, you have to look at the larger picture.
1) Bush has demonstrated ruthless determination in making sure America has access to oil.
2) Even if we were at peak right now, its going to take awhile for this to work its way through the system. Inductrial civilization isn't going to crumble over night.
Take a deep breath. The best thing you could do right now is relax. There is a saying that goes something like this; decide in haste, repent in leisure. If you make decisions right now while you are in a panic frame of mind then those decisions will come back to haunt you.
What would I do with the knowledge and experience I have now and being 18 years old? hmmmm.
kochevnik nailed it when he said that skills were more important than material things. A fire, a hurricane, incompetence or malice can take away any or all of your material objects. Another saying goes 'you don't own your objects so much as they own you.' If you spend effort and money building up a survivalist retreat, well, then you have to maintain it and make sure it is safe in a pre to peaking world when those things do you no good. You are far better off getting skills and experience right now. Skills and experience can't be taken from you, everything else can.
If you are concerned about the Mad Max scenario then spending some money to get a couple of acres out of town and off the grid may be a good idea. I would look at that excersize as more of a learning experience than as a final survival retreat. Scout around now and see if you can rent/buy a SMALL!!! parcel of land. (Outside Ottawa, Canada you can get an acre in the woods for 4 - 8K cdn ~ 2 - 4K usd, if you go further into the boonies then land gets cheaper i.e. larger parcel for same money, with land transfer taxes and legal fees this is about as cheap in dollars as it gets) Spend this winter researching agriculture, hunting and basic survival techniques. Then next summer try to live off the grid and without any of the industrial creature comforts you have known. Learning this now will give you greater confidence for the future and will tell you what skills are important.
I would not put too much effort into the post peak scenarios yet. If we are expecting a crash then expect land prices to plummet and interest rates to soar. Great, save the capital, wisely, and look to make land purchases once the hysteria has hit. A lot of people are severly over extended right now so there will be some great fire sales coming up if we see double digit interest rates. Again, there is time. No need for radical decisions right now. You are probably freaking your parents out too.
Look to exploit the peak scenario. You are in a good position to do so. In your position I would jump into a college program for electricians and seek a specialization in renewable energy. While the peak and early slide are going to be interesting times you can be assured that people will pay to gain energy independance once the situation becomes known. This way you and your family can ride out the early post peak slide in comfort. When you look at mass unemployment due to an economy in tatters you will see that there are still people working. Only thing is these people were wise/lucky enough to be working in a job or industry that was not directly affected. Expect the energy industry to continue. Expect a surge in demand for skilled renewable energy talent. By far this is probably the best option for few reasons:
1) if the worst case scenario is true then you and your family are in a good position in the early slide. You are employeed which means your family has food. You preserve wealth and make the retreat when conditions are right. We are still too early in the game to be investing significant funds into retreat options. If you look at the people that are best situated right now they have made decisions that make sense for the long term but also make sense in the pre-peak world as well.
2) if the worst case scenario does not come to pass and the industrialized world does survive (don't believe everything you read, people will promote extreme positions just to make sure people pay attention. Look at Y2K and they hype there.) then your career option will sustain you and your family for quite some time.
3) you will be working to make the world a better place. Getting more renewable energy online is a good thing to be doing now.
Some people in the peak oil issue are engaged in fear mongering. They may be depressed and feeling helpless. Some people may also look forward to the post peak era and it's die off as a cleansing of their guilt. (i.e. we've been bad to the environment and deserve to be punished) Take what you read on the internet with a grain of salt and react to it in a moderate way. Extreme reactions at this point are not going to help you. Look to make decisions that make sense in the short as well as in the long term. Above all, keep your optimism. There is hope. Look for the opportunities and they will present themselves.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3428 Location: California, USA
Posted: Wed Sep 29, 2004 2:59 am Post subject:
Hi Skateari-I would not suggest the southwestern US.
That region is going to be hit hard by global climate change. The general consensus of scientific opinion is that the hurricanes this year were *not* directly caused by climate change, *but* are typical of the kinds of effects that climate change *will cause* in the medium term (e.g. increase in violent storms). Also, with increased temperatures come increased prevalence of "tropical" diseases.
Aside from that, consider your own adaptation to climate and geography. The southeastern US tends to have hot *and* humid summers, and cold winters. Personally there is no way I could do hard outdoor work when it's 90 degrees and 90% humidity; that combination knocks me flat. If I'm not mistaken, Hawaii is a more moderate climate, so you also may find it difficult to adapt to the southeastern climate.
Our group is going to do northern California because it's practical for us. I don't discuss logistical details in public places but feel free to send me a private message and I'll respond.
In the meantime though, consider that even with oil prices hitting $50, that's not evidence of peak having happened yet. The best forecasts put it a few years off. We still have time to prepare and make sure our plans are solid.
The most important thing you can do is gather skills and save money, and keep reading up so you're well informed and can make a sound decision. Also start looking at your own personal strengths & weaknesses, your morals & principles, your core personal plans (e.g. for most people this includes forming a family, for many it may include various types of achievement such as education/career, artistic/creative, spiritual/religious, and so on).
The best preparation is made with a somewhat detached attitude, rather than in the heat of crisis (or fresh knowledge about impending crisis).
Take notes, go back and look at them later. Train yourself to not catch contagious emotions such as fear. Fear and its counterpart, hatred, are the worst when it comes to clouding peoples' judgement. The best attitude I've found is simple curiosity, the attitude of a naturalist when investigating new flora & fauna. Open-minded skepticism is also useful. Study the various methodologies of knowledge, e.g. scientific method, introspective method, etc. If you're religious in some sense, go back to the roots of your faith and look at their core lessons in terms of the present circumstances, and look at what has changed since the founding times of your faith, and how the core principles would apply under changed conditions. Learn various techniques of analysis that will enable you to evaluate information. Etc. etc.
You have time. We all have time to think carefully as we're making our decisions and implementing them.
Posted: Wed Sep 29, 2004 12:19 pm Post subject: Haste makes waste and spends hard earned cash
Dear O'Neill-thank you for your insights. I agree, decisions shouldnot be made in panic.
And yes, it is causing the parents to freak so getting skills now in installing solar, building, catchment, will be critical skills to get while looking for a better place to live that southern calif. as soon as gas at the pump reaches $5-7 gallon. Keep researching skateari.
I really don't mean to seem panicked and scared, I just really don't believe we have as much time as others are playing it out to be. I don't mean to panic about this, its just theres a lot of stuff to decide and a lot of things to research before making such a difficult decision as to what to do.
I am already going to college in engineering, and planned to go into alternative energy. But I don't know if a 4 year school is just wasting time that I could spend learning the same things first hand. Where do you all suggest I go to learn solar skills without getting a 4yr college degree?
What do you all think about Australia? I am worried about the wars that may soon take place, and this may be avoided there, also there are some cheap farm properties that are already sustainable and solar is relatively cheap in the area. They get a lot of sun, so solar would be good, land is priced right, there a neutral country, and a large one at that. Not to large of a population, and as far as I know they rely on wind power and alternative energy a lot compared to other countries. What are your feelings towards this??
(I really don't want to be in a country that is already facing future world wars against Iran, North Korea, Syria, China.. and its scary to put myself in a place like California )
An island?! Oh HELL no.
I'd look at the Midwest. It does have inherent problems, but the overall location is far preferable. Large amounts of land available with low population density. 100,000 would get you a house with 100 acres in the small towns.
As for gas, it has a shelf life. Even Sta-Bil doesnt extend that indefinately. I'd completely dump the whole gas storage and look to gas creation. Set up a good manufacturing facility and either make ethanol or bio-diesel. Both can be run in current production engines if you dont mind not having the performance you have now. Gas even without additives can be stored for 6 months or a year though with little problems.
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3428 Location: California, USA
Posted: Mon Oct 04, 2004 2:51 am Post subject:
Skate, if you sent me a private message, it didn't get through; try again. Yes, midwest land prices are good. However, consider the issue of summer high temperatures and winter lows. You'll need to at minimum make sure you have a viable winter heating source.
Anyway, more when we're in private message mode.
I would think the Kona side of the Big Island might be a nice place to live, as far as alternative energy goes. There are 3 operational wind farms plus the ocean technology plant (which gets energy from the ocean and also runs aqua and agriculture).
Oahu, on the other hand, is royally f*cked. No alternative energy anything, plus a very high population and loads of urban sprawl. What land there is used for agriculture is still dangerous because there are several undisclosed biopharm fields hidden among them. Of course, with my luck, everyone I really care about is located in Honolulu.
Posted: Mon Oct 11, 2004 5:59 am Post subject: Refuge
Hello Folks, Here's how my preparations are going. Have just bought a property on 1 acre 7 miles from work so I can still use my electric bicycle. Sold my old house in a housing estate which was also only 7 miles from work but in the city centre. My new property has it's own well and very good soil. House is south facing and ideal for solar. As I am in the military, I reckon my job is safe for a while. New house is very close to the sea and I have a 30ft boat which I am walking distance from. Harbour is great for fishing.
Unfortunately, I am now mortgaged to the hilt. C'est la vie. Can't have it every way. _________________ www.askaboutenergy.com
All times are GMT - 6 Hours Goto page 1, 2, 3 ... 13, 14, 15Next
Page 1 of 15
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
)
