For all the Cassandras: How do you see it happening?

slacker · Coal Joined: Nov 12, 2004 Posts: 10

And when?

My outlook is pretty bleak. I'm a notorious doomsayer, though. I'd like to hold out faith for an alternative energy solution, but I just feel like it won't happen in time.

I think that the crisis will start within the next 4 to 6 years, and TS will HTF within 10. I also think it will be very very ugly. Possibly bad enough for some rogue nation to set of a few nukes. Perhaps an Indo-Paki conflict? Perhaps N. Korea? Or maybe Israel will feel threatened being surrounded by enemies... who knows. Once the price hikes and trade conflicts reach a boiling point we'll see mass panic. Riots, martial law, famine, pirates and black marketeers taking advantage of people. General lawlessness. This phase might take a few months to a year to fully realize before the federal government has absolutely no control anymore.

I feel like civilation will devolve into an awkwardly primitve, yet advanced society. We'll be thrown into the stone age for sure, but our adaptations will be ingenius. The black market will actually become the model for the economy and goods will be traded as currency instead of precious metals. With the unstoppable train of global warming barreling down the tracks, I kind of see this Mad Max like world. Without the petrol burning cars of course.

So what about you folks?

1. Do you think it will be a huge crisis? If yes, explain what type of crisis you envision. If no, explain what you think will save us.

2. How do you think events will play out?

3. What sort of time frame do you see this happening in?

4. What about the future?

I'm really curious, and hoping for at least a couple optimistic responses. I need something to sorta gauge my insanity.

-scott

khebab · Moderator Joined: Sep 27, 2004 Posts: 935 Location: Canada

Slacker, I share your state of mind. I have also mixed feelings about the future. I'm trying to believe in a soft landing if a slow increase in oil prices occurs over a decade (as it is happening now). Higher prices will have for effect to gradually reduce the demand and make alternative energies more competitive. What scares me is the lack of people awareness around me. They are naturally resistant to any change in their lifestyle and that's the problem. Now that prices are down a bit, people are back to business as if nothing happened. I find the hard landing and dieoff scenarios too dark and pessimistic to be true (the way Y2K predictions were). In my view, rich countries are most at risk because they are higher on the energy pyramid and they are the main energy users. Don't forget, most of the people on the plant are ass poor and their way of subsistance is not that far from the way it was in the post industrial world.

Geology_Guy · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 06, 2004 Posts: 253

A lot of Sci-Fi shows have covered this territory-Escape from New York etc. They show a world in which a minority of elites live in a few shining high tech cities and protected by lots of guns. Usually outside the city is a wasteland inhabited by Mad Max types or poor peasants.

I don't remember these shows ever talking about where the Hi-tech folks with guns got their energy, but I bet we peak oiler's might have a few ideas. I think Buck Rodgers in the 24th century was another one. They all lived in "New Chicago" if I remember right. I will miss cable TV Smile

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jato · Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2004 3:49 pm Post subject:

savethehumans · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Oct 20, 2004 Posts: 1541

To say it's gonna be a major crisis has GOT to be the understatement of the Millenium! Shocked

To give it 4-6 years before it gets really bad kind of sounds idealistic to me, as well. Things are ALREADY getting really bad...the economic collapse that's most likely next year may accelerate things. Increasing demand for oil/gas around the world will speed up depletion. Resource wars will continue, though how the US will afford it is a mystery to me. And if the greenhouse effect and/or climate change starts going runaway, as recent reports seem to be indicating....

People think it will happen more slowly in America. I don't think so. Our "insulation" may make distributions of goods/money even MORE difficult. Heck, you gonna run oil and gas pipelines across the Atlantic and Pacific? C'mon! THEY need the o&g badly, too--and if they decide you're too risky a bet NOT to try for a world-wide takeover, then they may take a "if we can't have it, neither can you" approach and burn up all the oil and gas supplies. Don't think it can't happen--people and their governments are getting more and more irrational with each passing year.

Sorry to depress you. Believe me, I am even MORE depressed. But knowing the broad outlines of what's ahead, but not the specifics, make it very hard to be sure the moves we make will be the ones that pay off. Not that we shouldn't TRY, of course!

slutsky · Coal Joined: Oct 28, 2004 Posts: 9

Why exactly will rising gas prices cause some sort of "economic collapse"? A lot of people seem to assume that oil demand is rising uncontrollably and that no amount of change in the price of oil will retard that growth. These same people are often the ones who actually seem to want a total breakdown of society.

Pops · Posted: Sat Nov 13, 2004 8:13 am Post subject:

Lots of assessments here:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic321.html
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k_semler · Posted: Sat Nov 13, 2004 8:20 am Post subject:

The more fuel costs, the less money consumers have available for expendable income. The less expendable income there is, the less consumable goods are purchased. The less consumer goods that are purchased, the less goods that can be manufactured. The less manufacturing there is, a reduction in the workforce occurs. The more layoffs occur, more people have less income. Repeat starting at sentence #2.

Also consider the factor of low income in relation to fuel costs. I make approximately $1100/mo after taxes. I have $765 per month in expenses. This is not counting a $100 emergency fund that I save each month. Starting next month, I will be converting over $40.00 per month to Euros for value protection. With adding the Euro and emergency fund in , my current lifestyle costs $905 per month. This means that I have $195 per month available as disposable income. This is all at the current cost of $2.11 per gallon of gasoline, and my fuel bill is currently $170. If the price of gasoline were to raise to $4.22 per gallon, then my fuel bill would increase to $340. This would take my disposable income to $25 per month This is a 87.179487% reduction in disposable income that could be contributed to consumer based purchases and not just the necessities of life. This is only my situation. Now imagine that this took place throughout the nation, and effected 10,000,000 persons of my financial situation, (which is probably an underestimate considering the unemployment rate is 5.5% according to the radio), (5.5% of the nation's population is ~14,650,000) This would be a loss of $1,700,000,000.00 of dispensable income in just individuals in a financial situation similar to mine.. That is quite a hefty amount that is no longer being contributed to the economy, and instead being used just to sustain a comfortable life.
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slutsky · Coal Joined: Oct 28, 2004 Posts: 9

NiKfUrY69 · Posted: Sun Nov 14, 2004 12:09 am Post subject:

Specop_007 · Expert Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 6267

Not soon enough
Not fast enough
Not hard enough

I want an utter, total collapse all across the boards.
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gg3 · Posted: Sun Nov 14, 2004 7:58 am Post subject:

I already posted this scenario elsewhere in more detail:

The rich/powerful countries start staking claims to "energy colonies" e.g. in the Middle East. We see this happening already.

Eventually they start attempting to take over each others' energy colonies, and this becomes a source of localized wars, and increases the risk of wider warfare between the powerful nations themselves.

For a while, life in the USA and UK / Western Europe, goes on pretty much as before, though with the economy in the crapper for the majority, and fear of foreign threats used to keep the citizens cowering and obeying, rather than demanding economic reforms.

There is a risk that energy colonization will bring forth an honest indigenous resistance from the colonies. In this case, hate-motivated terrorists such as Bin Laden will co-opt the rhetoric of the indigenous resistance, such that it will be difficult to tell the two apart. This factor will also be used by the powers-that-be to discredit reformists in their own countries.

Americans will elect "don't worry / be happy" Presidents one or two more times, then flip over toward preferring something more authoritarian: sacrificing liberty for continued access to consumer goods.

Eventually we'll have used up our "credit" and the economy will deflate like a punctured balloon. The central government and national economy will erode down to bare bones (e.g. the central govt will still maintain a national defense infrastructure, all the more important in the face of other global powers looking at the US midwest with hungry eyes). The US will probably revert back to a much greater degree of localism as in the mid 18th century.

Population reductions will come about (throughout this scenario) primarily through continued reduction in birth rate, and declining lifespan, though rising crime will also be a factor.

Manufacturing will return to the cities, as this will enable them to justify their existence vis-a-vis trade with surrounding rural areas.

duff_beer_dragon · Posted: Sun Nov 14, 2004 9:23 am Post subject: fer fux sake

Anyone here actually work for the Company as a Remote Viewer? A time-based remote-viewer of course, not just a distance viewer.

Or actually know anyone that does, for real?

Don't you agree that if it is possible to view the future exactly as it will occur, and not be able to avoid anything that you'd prefer not to get involved with, then it also means the following is fixed too -

the remote viewing itself, will be programed into the unchangeable reality tunnel,

in other words, if such things are true then it means that you never actually decide what to do, you are stuck in some pattern. So if you worry about it, that is also decided before you worry. If you try to change it, that too is programed in.

So at some point you have to make a choice, or not and go along with whatever - if you agree you can make a choice, then you have to think about what can be possible. If you consider what is possible you really have to arrive at - just about anything is possible. So, you cannot reasonably limit the future to being a specific way.
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MonteQuest · Posted: Sun Nov 14, 2004 10:17 am Post subject:

tmazanec1 · Heavy Crude Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 424

I make $7 per hour, and can barely save much. A rise in gas prices means I cut down on the little things", not my savings. Yes. Raise it more, and I drop "important luxuries" like TV (I've already dropped newspaper and most magazines), then the internet. Raise it still more, and I move into work (this is actually an option). Raise it more yet, and I am in trouble.