How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 3:48 am Post subject: Re: Refinery outages = market manipulation?
*showing up fashionably late*
I have a silly question...if anybody can answer it I'd be thankful. What is it about energy production that brings out all the conspiracy theorists?
Nobody proposes that McDonald's "manipulates" the price of hamburgers. Nor does Starbucks "control" the price of coffee beans.
I have yet to hear anybody claim chocolate candy companies dictate commodity futures for cocoa beans.
However whenever the topic of energy production is mentioned ----> It's like a whole different world. All the crazies come out of nowhere and cook up some of the most ridiculous nonsense.
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5016 Location: Oklahoma
Posted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 8:43 am Post subject: Re: Refinery outages = market manipulation?
cube wrote:
What is it about energy production that brings out all the conspiracy theorists?
Peak oil is a huge problem that's about to destroy the global economy, and TPTB are keeping it fairly quiet to keep the ball rolling as long as possible. Lying about why we're at war, and such. It's a conspiracy of sorts, therefore people who are interested in conspiracies are interested in it. _________________ "Every junkie's like a setting sun..." - Neil Young
Posted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 10:29 am Post subject: Re: Refinery outages = market manipulation?
cube wrote:
*showing up fashionably late*
I have a silly question...if anybody can answer it I'd be thankful. What is it about energy production that brings out all the conspiracy theorists?
Nobody proposes that McDonald's "manipulates" the price of hamburgers. Nor does Starbucks "control" the price of coffee beans.
I have yet to hear anybody claim chocolate candy companies dictate commodity futures for cocoa beans.
However whenever the topic of energy production is mentioned ----> It's like a whole different world. All the crazies come out of nowhere and cook up some of the most ridiculous nonsense.
why?......why?........why?
People who think oil companies collude and "conspire" just happen to be in the majority. So presenting the suspicious on this forum as zany outliers, is disingenuous, in the extreme
Three or four large chocolate candy companies, sharing controlling interest in candy production, could easily drive prices of futures for cocoa beans using cherry picked info and stats, creating an appearance of future shortages of cocoa. Seeing as they don't own cocoa plantations, it's not in their interest to do so. But hypothetically, could they do it? Probably
They COULD justify a highly inflated price of the finished product by exaggerating problems in the distribution, processing and marketing end.
Posted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 10:49 am Post subject: Re: Refinery outages = market manipulation?
threadbear wrote:
People who think oil companies collude and "conspire" just happen to be in the majority.
And that collective ignorance is why we are so terribly screwed. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5328 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 11:05 am Post subject: Re: Refinery outages = market manipulation?
Again, the world refinery market is about $8 billion a day, $2.5 trillion a year, worth of products. It is beyond comprehension that any manipulation of the world oil product market could succeed any longer than a very few days – if at all. It is possible on a local level that a short term conspiracy or price gouging could be effective, until the perpetrators are caught – but then how in the world do a few guys in Peoria affect the energy futures market in New York City?
The fact that 80% of the population believes something doesn't make it true. There are so many numerous examples, everyone can think of some. So 80% of the people who are buying McMansions in exurbs, and driving large vehicles to get there want to believe energy prices will stay low for a very long time. Their wishes won't change reality, but as MQ says, that collective ignorance is why we are so terribly screwed. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 1:24 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery outages = market manipulation?
"Cast not your pearls before the swine." _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 1:34 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery outages = market manipulation?
DantesPeak wrote:
Again, the world refinery market is about $8 billion a day, $2.5 trillion a year, worth of products. It is beyond comprehension that any manipulation of the world oil product market could succeed any longer than a very few days – if at all. It is possible on a local level that a short term conspiracy or price gouging could be effective, until the perpetrators are caught – but then how in the world do a few guys in Peoria affect the energy futures market in New York City?
The fact that 80% of the population believes something doesn't make it true. There are so many numerous examples, everyone can think of some. So 80% of the people who are buying McMansions in exurbs, and driving large vehicles to get there want to believe energy prices will stay low for a very long time. Their wishes won't change reality, but as MQ says, that collective ignorance is why we are so terribly screwed.
Oh the perpetrators might get there's. I wouldn't rule it out altogether.
The fact that 80% of the population believes something doesn't make it true, but it sure is a good starting off point for some deep investigation.
I'm actually, contrary to how it might appear, quite delighted that oil prices are high, though I like to be more exact on why, as I feel it's the only hope for the planet. I hope they go higher.
Posted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 1:41 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery outages = market manipulation?
threadbear wrote:
The fact that 80% of the population believes something doesn't make it true, but it sure is a good starting off point for some deep investigation.
And that collective ignorance is why we are so terribly screwed.
Very recently 65% of the American populace believed Iraq was responsible for 911.
Should we start an investigation? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 3:21 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery outages = market manipulation?
threadbear wrote:
Definitely. There is something worth investigating here, wouldn't you agree and what do you think it would be?
The power of propaganda.
From my book, Madmen at Helm.
MonteQuest wrote:
While Bush readily admits that he does not read, one of his handlers must have read Mein Kampf. This administrations unrelenting campaign propaganda attempting to tie Saddam Hussein to al Qaeda shows some knowledge of the fine art of persuasion.
“But the most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly and with unflagging attention. It must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over. Here, as so often in this world, persistence is the first and most important requirement for success.” —Adolf Hitler in Mein Kampf
_________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:29 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery outages = market manipulation?
I guess some people don't want to give up on this conspiracy theory...so here cube's plan to "hijack" the oil refinery market.
Here's how the plan would work. OPEC gets into the refining business and no longer sells crude oil but instead refined oil. (diesel, gasoline, distillates, etc). OPEC produces 40% of the world's oil so they would also need to refine that much. Not an easy task. It would probably take at least 25 years to accomplish that. OPEC would essentially operate the same as before. The only difference is they raise or lower the supply of refined oil and not crude oil.
Suppose the plan works and oil refining profit margins shoot up by triple to $60 /barrel (unheard of). With crack spreads like that EVERYBODY would love to open up their own refinery. But they can't. You have to have a supply of oil to get into the refining business and since OPEC isn't selling oil anymore, where do you get an extra supply of oil? ---> you don't! As for the non-OPEC nations with refining capacity they too would enjoy these high profit margins because remember the market is "fungible".
Fear not guys this will never happen. It would require the leaders of the middle east to have at least some form of competency and future goals for their nations. The last middle east leader who displayed this got hanged.
Posted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 6:56 pm Post subject: Re: Refinery outages = market manipulation?
cube wrote:
I guess some people don't want to give up on this conspiracy theory...so here cube's plan to "hijack" the oil refinery market.
Here's how the plan would work. OPEC gets into the refining business and no longer sells crude oil but instead refined oil. (diesel, gasoline, distillates, etc). OPEC produces 40% of the world's oil so they would also need to refine that much. Not an easy task. It would probably take at least 25 years to accomplish that. OPEC would essentially operate the same as before. The only difference is they raise or lower the supply of refined oil and not crude oil.
Suppose the plan works and oil refining profit margins shoot up by triple to $60 /barrel (unheard of). With crack spreads like that EVERYBODY would love to open up their own refinery. But they can't. You have to have a supply of oil to get into the refining business and since OPEC isn't selling oil anymore, where do you get an extra supply of oil? ---> you don't! As for the non-OPEC nations with refining capacity they too would enjoy these high profit margins because remember the market is "fungible".
Fear not guys this will never happen. It would require the leaders of the middle east to have at least some form of competency and future goals for their nations. The last middle east leader who displayed this got hanged.
The oil market is not highly"fungible" I live in Canada and we ae quite aware that we are at the disposal of the US when it comes to our vital natural resources. If push comes to shove, all other contracts are cancelled and the US is served first. Oil is sold by contract and prearrangment and within the scope of trade treaties. It was probably more fungible in the past, not so much now.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
