Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:28 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
mkwin wrote:
The problem will be transport. The solution will be simple. Walk to work.
Good grief. I don't believe you thought that one through...and transportation is the big issue with peak oil.
Please explain how someone can walk 150 miles each way to work as many commuters do?
Much less 5. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:37 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
The optimist thinks we live in the best possible world. The pessimest fears it's true.
Many posters on this forum aren't quite this bad, but some are resistant to any notion that a muddle through scenario, is possible. It's not naive, foolish, irresponsible to think that the energy crisis might not terminate in a die off. It's also not naive, foolish, ridiculous to imagine that the oil corporations might be closing down some refineries unnecessarily to drive up oil prices, making supply problems appear worse than they actually are.
There is a boatload, a cargo container full of really great information on this site, unfortunately much of it rests on shakey assumptions
Mkwin--Be patient. History will prove you are probably correct and what is happening in the UK right now, with the fast tracking of infrastructure, will eventually happen in the US.
There is still tremendous amounts of private equity floating around the globe, looking for a home. Right now much of it is tied up in the shares of Big Oil, war profiteering, and derivatives schemes. But just wait.... Can't you just see all the American auto companies, jumping onto the green bandwagon after they get all of their suv's off the books? Follow the money, honies. What about companies like Exxon. What would prevent them from slowly getting into nuclear generation? The govt doesn't have to take on all the burden
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:47 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
threadbear wrote:
It's not naive, foolish, irresponsible to think that the energy crisis might not terminate in a die off.
No, it is ignorance of biology and the sequel to overshoot.
Quote:
It's also not naive, foolish, ridiculous to imagine that the oil corporations might be closing down some refineries unnecessarily to drive up oil prices, making supply problems appear worse than they actually are.
I would say it is, beings that there is no evidence to support such claims.
You have been asked to put up or shut up before on this.
You chose to shut up.
What is your response this time? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:58 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
Monequest - No one commutes 150 miles in Europe unless by train. The majority of people are in walking/bike distance.
Coal peaking in 15 years?? Do you have a link to this information? I can't remember exactly but the last figure I saw was an estimated 300 years potential supply.
Your comments about recent economic growth are true for the US and to a lesser extent the UK but not continental Europe (circa 2% growth), Eastern Europe (circa 5% growth), and Asia ex Japan (circa 7-10% growth). Also, the inflationary pressures current being experienced in the UK and previously in the US are more attributable to growth in money supply than oil. At the peak of the oil crises in the 70's oil was $80 dollars by today’s time adjusted value of money. We are not far of that peak and inflation is 2-3% based on CPI.
The US has other options. To start with many you have to improve your energy efficiency. You use twice the energy per person than Europeans while we live a comparable (better in some cases) quality of life. 20 mpg for a new car is appalling. In addition to conservation you have good wind resources and strong solar potential in your southern states and a LNG infrastructure could be built within 5-7 years. This has already started in Mexico.
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 5:02 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
mkwin wrote:
People are pessimistic because they believe people won't be motivated to change and we're going to fall of a cliff.
No, people are pessimistic because they know people haven't been motivated to change and we're going to fall of a cliff.
We needed to start this transition 20 to 30 years ago while fossil fuels were abundant and cheap.
Time to transition has run out.
We may not have time left to cope and adapt. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 5:05 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
MonteQuest wrote:
bshirt wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
Building permits exist for two main reasons; safety and uniform construction standards.
You forgot the third and most important reason....."to insure contractors get their $$$".
Your ignorance is showing.
If it has roots in anything covert it is to insure real estate values don't drop due to shody and unsafe building practices.
Folks like you can rationalize "anything" to insure you get your turn slobbering at the public trough.
So, you're justifying I can't put a swing set in my own backyard because only "you" or other "contractor" can do it safely and/or correctly? In addition, even though it's my swing set on my own property?
I say bullsh*t to both of the above.
The bottom line is that folks like you "love" endless bureaucracy ( restrictions, requirements, permits, etc)....so that "you" have to hired.
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 5:08 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
MonteQuest wrote:
threadbear wrote:
It's not naive, foolish, irresponsible to think that the energy crisis might not terminate in a die off.
No, it is ignorance of biology and the sequel to overshoot.
Quote:
It's also not naive, foolish, ridiculous to imagine that the oil corporations might be closing down some refineries unnecessarily to drive up oil prices, making supply problems appear worse than they actually are.
I would say it is, beings that there is no evidence to support such claims.
You have been asked to put up or shut up before on this.
You chose to shut up.
What is your response this time?
I think using the analogy of the behavior of animals in bio-systems is quite weak when applied to humans. By virtue of our intelligence we have the ability to engineer nature and are therefore not bound, to a certain extent, by the natural laws affecting other forms of life.
In regards to the lack of refinery capacity, this has been widely reported but I doubt its to a conspiracy between the seven sisters it's more likely due to the lack of investment that occurred in the 80's due to the collapse in the oil price in the early 80's.
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 5:14 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
mkwin wrote:
Monequest - No one commutes 150 miles in Europe unless by train. The majority of people are in walking/bike distance...
Untrue in the USA. The USA is much less densely populated than Europe, especially in the West, and the social trend has been for the wealthy to move further and further away from their work.
mkwin wrote:
Coal peaking in 15 years?? Do you have a link to this information? I can't remember exactly but the last figure I saw was an estimated 300 years potential supply..
There is a document to this effect referenced on this forum. It was put together for the US Government. You are confusing "peaking" with "running out." Plus, the 300 year potential supply does not take into account that the best coal has already been taken out of the ground. The same document noted that, in terms of quantity of energy, coal had already peaked in the USA, despite the fact that the total amount of coal ore continued to grow.
mkwin wrote:
The US has other options. To start with many you have to improve your energy efficiency. You use twice the energy per person than Europeans while we live a comparable (better in some cases) quality of life. 20 mpg for a new car is appalling.
Absolutely agreed. Doesn't change the fact that this is the legasy we are stuck with, and it takes some 9 years to turn over the automobile fleet.
mkwin wrote:
In addition to conservation you have good wind resources and strong solar potential in your southern states and a LNG infrastructure could be built within 5-7 years. This has already started in Mexico.
Once again, as soon as the USA starts importing LNG, you Europeans can kiss your natural gas supply goodbye. A huge percentage of that supply you reference will be exported to the USA to run our factories and grow our crops. Globalism is not your friend. _________________ Just another tofu-munching bike-riding Rambo(/Rambette)
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 5:16 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
The exact mechanisms of manipulating oil may not be easily provable (just like how the fed manipulates the stock market is not easily provable) but that doesn't mean it doesn't happen (or it isn't plausible). _________________ Just look at us. Everything is backwards; everything is upside down. Doctors destory health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, governments destroy freedom, the major media destroy information and religions destroy spirituality.
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 5:16 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
threadbear wrote:
"Put up or shut up". MQuest
Articulate, reasoned, nuanced and engaging response. Why would anyone be turned off this forum? I just don't get it.
Oh, do you need it explained to you?
Provide evidence to support your claim.
Your opinion alone does not begin to win a debate, unless you are an expert on oil refining operations, which I doubt you are.
You have been asked with an articulate, reasoned, nuanced and engaging response before and you chose to not back up your claims.
"Put up or shut up" seemed easier for you to grasp.
So, what's it going to be? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 5:19 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
mkwin wrote:
I think using the analogy of the behavior of animals in bio-systems is quite weak when applied to humans. By virtue of our intelligence we have the ability to engineer nature and are therefore not bound, to a certain extent, by the natural laws affecting other forms of life.
Your hubris is showing.
Man is not above nature. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 5:27 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
MonteQuest wrote:
mkwin wrote:
People are pessimistic because they believe people won't be motivated to change and we're going to fall of a cliff.
No, people are pessimistic because they know people haven't been motivated to change and we're going to fall of a cliff.
We needed to start this transition 20 to 30 years ago while fossil fuels were abundant and cheap.
Time to transition has run out.
We may not have time left to cope and adapt.
The capital investment required to bring about a bridge system could easily be funded by government. The demand for long dated fixed-income securities is still extensive in the financial markets and the government won't be running low on oil, supplies will be diverted to core activities like infrastructure/mass transit/good transportation. The left overs will go to the markets and your average wasteful SUV driver is for shock but society won't break down.
It should also be remembered the massive capital investment will also create HUGE economic growth and jobs; his could easily cover higher oil costs. Rothschild famously said "buy on the sound of cannon fire” i.e. the huge capital investment of war is good for the economy. The energy related capital investment will be similar.
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 5:28 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
mkwin wrote:
Coal peaking in 15 years?? Do you have a link to this information? I can't remember exactly but the last figure I saw was an estimated 300 years potential supply.
.
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 5:31 pm Post subject: Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?
Sorry, I said it was the USA that figured out coal was peaking. It was the germans. Should have known. _________________ Just another tofu-munching bike-riding Rambo(/Rambette)
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