Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society.
No, it's the wacky proclamation of some guy who wants to sell books
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Mon Nov 15, 2004 8:44 am Post subject:
I'm hoping your analytical abilities, which are necessary to integrate the many diverse sources of energy information, are better than your ability to figure out the whole URL thing and the wonders of the preview function.
What's the point of the post? 16 billion barrels is a smidgeon. And the ad-hominem arguments against peak oil, e.g. motivated by the greed to sell books, is fallacious.
Maybe if the URL code didn't appear at the end of the data block when I want to add a link in later it wouldn't be so confounding to post a link at the beginning of a post. Whatever, it's not like you're going to read it anyway. Preview shmeview.
I can analyze just fine, but I don't see how "civillization as we know it is going to come to an end" just because Matt Savinar says it is, or because he has an unusually large number of "followers".
People have been predicting TEOTWAWKI for millenia. You don't seem to be able to analyze one piece of info... and that is you can't see the future.
Matt savinar sells books, he makes money. What good is money in the world he is predicting?
Oh, right.
But in the world we STILL live in, money is king. So, it seems to me that his best bet is to continue living in the world we are in now.
Hence, the outlandish book predicting fire and brimstone and the end of the world, waah waah waah. Better get your heads down folks, this is going to be a big one! And while your head is in the sand, he's skipping out of town with your dough. Classic con game. If not book sales then speeches and "consulting contracts" and etc etc.
Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 1180 Location: England
Posted: Mon Nov 15, 2004 9:07 am Post subject:
Anonymous wrote:
And it's not fallacious.
Think about it (analyze).
Matt savinar sells books, he makes money. What good is money in the world he is predicting?
Oh, right.
But in the world we STILL live in, money is king. So, it seems to me that his best bet is to continue living in the world we are in now.
Hence, the outlandish book predicting fire and brimstone and the end of the world, waah waah waah. Better get your heads down folks, this is going to be a big one! And while your head is in the sand, he's skipping out of town with your dough. Classic con game. If not book sales then speeches and "consulting contracts" and etc etc.
Just shut up already and stop feeding the monkey.
This book was free before the US election in PDF format on the internet. Also Matt could make more in a few days as a lawyer than sales from his book. So I think your theory is hogwash
As for the 16 billion barrels , well thats 6 months world consumption , we are saved!!
If you disagree with Matt, then please refute his arguments, considering the consequences he would be happy to be proved wrong!! (but I think you will find the future isn't too rosey!)
A. have you checked the price of the book
B. have you checked how much copies matt Savinar has sold
C. Have you extrapolated what it would cost at this moment to be able to live on booksales?
When you can answer these and apply them to your theory then you may have some credibility.
What you also could have done is write something like this which is my opinion:
I think Matt Savinar's theory about the Die Off is flawed, his thinking is too linear.
He compares humans to bacteria in petri dishes. He compares oil to the food in the petri dish. Humans can switch to other Fuels, bacteries can't. Bacteria just keep using food in a rapid proces. Humans don't they have this thing called PEAK oil. It's a slow process when compared to the food usement of bacterie and in a totally different way.
That gives credibility you can use arguments against it or you can agree with it. Not with something childish non credible as "No, it's the wacky proclamation of some guy who wants to sell books"
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Mon Nov 15, 2004 9:25 am Post subject:
Is this post nothing more than a diatribe against Matt? Give me a break. I haven't read his book and have no intent to do so. I have read about 20 books on this topic, from "Beyond Oil" written in the 1980s, to many of the latest publications that were written without all the speculation of what happens when oil peaks.
If you have a grudge against Matt, please flame him in the flaming forum. If you bear news on energy, great. The 16 billion barrels in Alaska are a quanity most of us know about. We don't discount it. But it's not going to make a big difference in the end.
The debate on peak oil is not black and white. Matt's book, from what I can tell (haven't looked closely), seems more like a FAQ that is posted on the internet than a standard publication. Perhaps I'm wrong. But it falls into the alarmist end-of-the-world, conspiracy category. Along with Ruppert and even Heinberg.
There are plenty of peak oil believers (T Boone Pickens) who do not believe in the conspiracy theories, are solidly Republican, and think Iraq was not about oil. But they still believe in peak oil.
The didn't write the Bible to sell copies, they wrote it as a book of knowledge and laws for the "believers". The real power doesn't come from book sales (though the bible IS the best selling book in the world), but rather from what they can get you to believe.
i.e., tithing, charitable donations, dial-a-prayer 900 numbers at $2.76 a minute, etc etc
The book puts the word out there, and when the word is out there, the scared sheeple come and ask for more words. That's when you bilk them dry.
Peak oil is one thing, but attaching theories like "end of the world" to it is patently deceitful because it uses Fear to sell an idea. I don't have a grudge against Matt I have a grudge against his kind. The same doomers used to sell books around Y2K. Yeah they brought some attention to the problem, you could argue. But not attention that was productive in solving the problem. The programmers were already working on it. One day John Ashcroft is talking about biological attacks, plastic sheeting and duct tape and the next day stock in duct tape goes through the roof. It's like Lenin said; you look to see who benefits. Follow the money.
Apocalypse books and theories only whip people up into an unneccessary frenzy. And from what I know of people, they are borderline already. No need to push them over the edge.
I don't even care about them I care about me. The last thing I need is more loonies in my path, carrying assaul rifles and waiting for the price of gas to hit $5.50 before they start shooting.
Isn't the first Harry Potter book the most sold book now? _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Mon Nov 15, 2004 11:08 am Post subject:
Anonymous wrote:
Apocalypse books and theories only whip people up into an unneccessary frenzy. And from what I know of people, they are borderline already. No need to push them over the edge.
I don't even care about them I care about me. The last thing I need is more loonies in my path, carrying assaul rifles and waiting for the price of gas to hit $5.50 before they start shooting.
If you get my meaning.
Which makes it all the more important to have reasoned debate on these topics.
But take a look outside. I haven't seen any civil insurrection yet. When the price of gas hits $7.00, you can bet there will be some fist fights and other problems at gas stations. But that's always going to happen. And there will always be people looking for a reason to lock-and-load, particularly in a country that includes succesful cults-turned-religions like Mormonism.
I have yet to see one good model that describes how peak oil will play out economically. A model is only that--a model. But the word-smiths, who create models much more akin to science fiction--or Harry Potter--do not a proof make neither--much less so.
See the barrons article posted today at Energy Bulletin. It provides a reasoned discussion of the peak oil issue. No end of the world talk. No mass starvation. But it still makes the point. The standard of living of everyone will be decreasing. People better get used to it. And they better be prepared, so they understand what is happening and that invading the oil produces will at best buy a little time and at worst speed up the decline.
PS: I used Preview to be certain everything looked ok. hint hint.
BUT, you log onto this web site and the first thing you read is:
Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global “Peak Oil. DEAL WITH REALITY OR REALITY WILL DEAL WITH YOU”
end of the world, terrified smart people, lots of respected minds agree, blah blah blah, buy my book, blah blah blah
Bah!
That's not reasoned that's fear mongering. Which is why I hate it. Even well respected, highly paid investment bankers are wrong from time to time.
Maybe Peak Oil is upon us, maybe not. But this guy Savinar can go piss up a pole, to use the the parlence of our times.
Joined: Aug 10, 2004 Posts: 1104 Location: San Diego, CA, USA
Posted: Mon Nov 15, 2004 12:38 pm Post subject:
Anonymous wrote:
Reasoned debate is fine.
BUT, you log onto this web site and the first thing you read is:
Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect,
Maybe Peak Oil is upon us, maybe not. But this guy Savinar can go piss up a pole, to use the the parlence of our times.
In the past, I used Life After the Oil Crash site for energy news, but now use www.energybulletin.net and the news posted by people on this site (which often duplicates Energy Bulletin).
Look at it this way: if oil and natural gas disappeared tomorrow, there would be a horrific die off, mass starvation, across the world. But it won't disappear tomorrow. There will be shocks (e.g. revolution in Saudi Arabia?) and economic decline. And in 200 years, do not expect there to be 9 billion humans on the planet. I don't think the planet can support it without cheap energy. Maybe 2 billion? Not sure. Therefore define a transition between 6.5 billion of today, the increases that will continue through the early part of this century, and the likely decline that will occur in the coming years after that.
Perhaps you would not see the statement as offensive if you stop equating the word " civilization " with " the end of the world ".
The way we live will change, and I believe that the rational debate at this site is worthwhile. The coming decades will be difficult, and having some foreknowledge of what is to come can only help to smooth the transition somewhat.
I have a copy of Matt's book, and although his view is not a pleasant one, one could argue that it may be the end result if we ( as a species ) do nothing to heed it's warning. People like Matt and Jay Hanson argue that it is an inevitable path because of the mechanism of being human - with fear of the unknown being a central component. Your defensive posture only adds validity to thier arguments.
Joined: May 16, 2004 Posts: 162 Location: Rural, Indiana.
Posted: Mon Nov 15, 2004 1:22 pm Post subject:
If I were trying to introduce someone to PO, Matt's site would not be the first place I would direct someone on the internet. The way he presents it seems to either make people just laugh him off, or it scares the pants off them.
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