Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2007 10:41 pm Post subject: Re: Global warming 'is three times faster than worst predict
Our inability to respond to the threat of global warming, from the time this threat was first identified to today, is the strongest proof yet that we're doomed.[/quote]
And by the time people acquire the mindset to actually change things...
Florida will be history. Oops...shoulda, woulda, coulda.....
I'm no doomer, but it doesn't look pretty coming down the stretch....
cb _________________ President Bush: “There’s no question about it. Wall Street got drunk—that’s one of the reasons I asked you to turn off the TV cameras. It got drunk, and now it’s got a hangover."
CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes
have been accelerating at a global scale, with their growth rate
increasing from 1.1% y1 for 1990–1999 to >3% y1 for 2000–
2004. The emissions growth rate since 2000 was greater than for
the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s.
...
No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. The growth rate in
emissions is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly
China. Together, the developing and least-developed economies
(forming 80% of the world’s population) accounted for 73% of global
emissions growth in 2004 but only 41% of global emissions and only
23% of global cumulative emissions since the mid-18th century. The
results have implications for global equity.
Yep Heineken, all we're doing is making the situation worse by talking about it and doing nothing except increase our CO2 emissions. With this, peak oil, peak water, peak food and peak whatever-the-hell-else-you-can-think-of, anybody who doesn't have their doomer meter pegged at 11 just isn't paying attention. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 12:22 am Post subject: Re: Global warming 'is three times faster than worst predict
Quote:
I do agree that it would be better for large shocks to come up front. Certainly not for the death they cause, but because it might wake us up just enough to avert some of the really freakish possiblities. Like what you say? How about this,
...all the green grass was burned up
...1/3 of all the living things in the sea died
...the water became like the blood of a dead man and noone could drink it
...1/4 of mankind was killed by the plague, pestilence and the sword
Profound and troubling changes are coming to the world in this century. And how odd is it that the words of a humble little man in a cave 2000 years ago ring more true as the present doom is revealed. John the Revelator must be a forebarer of Einstien to have understood how human populations would evolve and ultimately take the planet to such an end. But of course the Bible makes no such claim of intellectual prowess for John.
Well said, Elijah! The more things happen, the more I understand. John was describing the visions he saw in the terms he and his readers could understand.
While fires and megadroughts weren't unheard of in biblical times (the grass burns up), the rest of it must've sounded like overkill or exaggeration.
We, of course, have the advantage of knowing about red tide/dead zones (waters like blood); pollution of the world's waters and overfishing (living things in sea die); overpopulation, resource wars, and designer viruses (pestilence, plagues, sword).
Yet even today, people demand SIGNS that the world is ending, or at least dangerously altering. God, prophets, today's experts, and those of us who see can officially go beyond anguish, anger, and weeping, and just shrug, sigh, and roll our eyes.
It's over. And STILL people believe these are but "temporary setbacks" that the market and technology will solve any time now.
We truly do deserve what's coming. Yet, I am still for us all.
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 5:19 am Post subject: Re: Global warming 'is three times faster than worst predict
Tyler_JC wrote
Quote:
Don't forget that this sudden increase in the pace of CO2 emissions can be attributed to China's massive increase in coal consumption.
Take China's extra coal plant a week out of the equation and the IPCC wasn't too far off base.
The last time I saw the figures on increased CO2, the rate of increase (percentage) was higher in China than in the USA, but in absolute numbers of tons increase, USA was the same or higher.
I think every person and every country should take responsibility for their own emissions before blaming others.
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 7:55 am Post subject: Re: Global warming 'is three times faster than worst predict
RdSnt wrote:
There are large amounts of oxygen on Mars, both in the water ice and in the iron oxides. We won't have any problem breathing there, inside well insulated and sheilded shelters that is.
Unfortunately it is very energy intensive to recover chemically bonded oxygen, so it will not be done for lack of resources reasons.
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6417 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 8:04 am Post subject: Re: Global warming 'is three times faster than worst predict
nocar wrote:
...I think every person and every country should take responsibility for their own emissions before blaming others.
Other than reactionary denialists, everyone is doing exactly that.
Pretending that the growth in emissions is not coming primarily from China serves no good purpose. Excusing what they are doing simply because the developed nations did it first does not alter the reality of the situation: Their steady, constant, rapid increase in emissions will more than negate any efforts made by the rest of the world to reduce theirs.
All attempts at mitigation are pointless and futile because of what is going on in China. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 8:11 am Post subject: Re: Global warming 'is three times faster than worst predict
Zardoz wrote:
nocar wrote:
...I think every person and every country should take responsibility for their own emissions before blaming others.
Other than reactionary denialists, everyone is doing exactly that.
Is everybody taking responsibility? Are you, for that matter?
Because when I look around, I only know personally one person that is, and it isn't me. I made some puny reductions in my energy consumption, but I couldn't manage much more because I rent, and I can't make the kind of changes needed for some significant difference.
I plan to buy a houseboat, and then, hopefully, I'll be able to be energy efficient.
Zardoz wrote:
Pretending that the growth in emissions is not coming primarily from China serves no good purpose. Excusing what they are doing simply because the developed nations did it first does not alter the reality of the situation: Their steady, constant, rapid increase in emissions will more than negate any efforts made by the rest of the world to reduce theirs.
All attempts at mitigation are pointless and futile because of what is going on in China.
A fine example of what nocar was complaining about.
The fact of the matter is that, if it comes to the crunch, China is a country that can take radical action to solve problems. It did so with overpopulation and I have no doubt that they will do so with climate change, when the moment comes.
Other countries don't have such a good record of recognizing when they're hitting a limit.
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4542 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 9:00 am Post subject: Re: Global warming 'is three times faster than worst predict
nocar wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote
Quote:
Don't forget that this sudden increase in the pace of CO2 emissions can be attributed to China's massive increase in coal consumption.
Take China's extra coal plant a week out of the equation and the IPCC wasn't too far off base.
The last time I saw the figures on increased CO2, the rate of increase (percentage) was higher in China than in the USA, but in absolute numbers of tons increase, USA was the same or higher.
I think every person and every country should take responsibility for their own emissions before blaming others.
nocar
That's why I added "and besides that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"
The IPCC did not anticipate such a rapid increase in emissions in China.
"Ten countries are responsible for about two thirds of global carbon emissions from fuel use. The United States, with 5 percent of the world’s population, accounts for nearly a quarter of the total. Between 1990 and 2003, U.S. energy-related emissions rose 16 percent. China ranks second, with a 14-percent share. Emissions in China are up more than 47 percent since 1990, and China accounted for half of the global increase in 2003, although it still ranks far behind the industrial world in emissions per person."
Again, take China out of the mix and the situation isn't far off from what the IPCC predicted.
I'm not trying to shift the blame, I'm just trying to state the obvious. China will soon overtake the USA in terms of total greenhouse gas emissions.
This will have far-reaching consequences when you realize that the USA is only marginally interested in reducing CO2 emissions and China isn't even required to do so under the current Kyoto Protocol. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 1008 Location: "Mad as Hell !"
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 9:17 am Post subject: Re: Global warming 'is three times faster than worst predict
If you followed the gossip on the IPCC studies you would have learned that they did indeed take into consideration the increase in China's CO2 emissions. The reports were watered down by both the Chinese and US bureaucratic delegations at the 11th hour.
While many skeptics were calling “foul” on the reports as being politically motivated and alarmist the real truth was just the opposite was happening. _________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 12508 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 11:07 am Post subject: Re: Global warming 'is three times faster than worst predict
Does anyone have a link to a site with predictions for regional changes based on these new models, or previous models? Some of you have been posting as though you have info about devastating changes to your regions, so, I'd like a link to find out what might happen. This isn't an argument about whether or not things will be bad, I just want to know what the predictions are for what kind of bad it is modeled to be.
Thanks. _________________ No original ideas are contained in this post.
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6417 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 11:16 am Post subject: Re: Global warming 'is three times faster than worst predict
Doly wrote:
...Is everybody taking responsibility?
I misspoke. By "everybody", I meant virtually all developed nations, and they're the ones that count because they're doing all the polluting. We all know what we're doing. We all know we're responsible, except, of course, for the AGW denialists among us who claim that we tiny little creatures can't possibly have any effect on this great big world.
Quote:
The fact of the matter is that, if it comes to the crunch, China is a country that can take radical action to solve problems. It did so with overpopulation and I have no doubt that they will do so with climate change, when the moment comes...
You are kidding, right? You have to be. They aren't going to do anything, ever, no matter what. As long as they have coal to burn and oil to import, they'll continue on doing exactly as they're doing, just as we will. They'll know they're "responsible" for what is happening to the biosphere, and it won't make a damn bit of difference to them, just as it isn't making any difference to us.
I think what we're doing here is quibbling over the meaning of the term "taking responsibility". To me, it means accepting the blame, but not necessarily doing anything about it, which is pretty much what most of us have been doing up to now. To you and nocar it means accepting the blame and actually taking some sort of positive action, which hardly anybody is doing, like you said. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1195 Location: was rwwff
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 12:09 pm Post subject: Re: Global warming 'is three times faster than worst predict
I've been saying the same thing for years now... China, India, Malaysia are going to absolute overwhelm the rest of the world as far as CO2 emissions go. Whether they will make it all the way to matching US per capita CO2 emissions is unknowable, but they are certainly going to try.
With that bit of knowledge everyone ought to just dump this notion of somehow preventing or reducing the effect of global warming and focus strictly on prediction and adaptation work. The earth is on its way back to its average warm cycle temperature, and nothing we might choose to do will stop it; we need to learn how to live in that environment. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 12508 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 12:16 pm Post subject: Re: Global warming 'is three times faster than worst predict
Certainly those now alive will have to adapt to the changes, which can't be stopped or significantly slowed at this point. I think that's pretty well understood, isn't it? Or maybe others (AL Gore) have been able to sell folks on the idea they themselves will benefit from their own carbon reduction.....
It's a nice idea and certainly more appealing than "We, ourselves, are in deep trouble." _________________ No original ideas are contained in this post.
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