Post-Peak Die-off; The Thuja Scenario

thuja

OK- to start off with- I believe that the planet will be experiencing a die-off of human beings but I am a slow crasher and believe it will take 50-100 years for population levels to decrease to the inhenerent carrying capacity of the Earth- in the 1-2 billion range.

But my main issue is how most folks view die-off here on this board. When folks discuss a massive population reduction, many tend to discuss it in generalities, with the concept that die-off is universal to all areas, nations and bioregions of the world.

They say die-off, extrapolate, and then say that 5/6ths of the people around us will die shortly. That leads to the thinking that most of these folks will be in the cities and therefore one should run screaming from any populated zone where most of the dying will take place.

The issue in my mind is that die-off will be disproportionate and there will be a different time scale and different types of die-off depending on the nation/region we are talking about.

As I stated in another post, whereas Bangladesh might experience a famine/flood/pandemic that wipes out 19 of 20 in the next 20 years, Moscow may only experience 1 out of 4 dying due to malnutrition, poor medical and dental care and cold snaps in the next 40 years.

There are so many factors that go into die-off, including the natural carrying capacity of the bioregion people live in, the wealth of the citizens, the infrastructure, alternative energy in region, military power of nation, potentials for ist attack, etc etc...

Many many different factors...but the most important thing to understand is that die-off will not be universal, nor will it follow the same time-scale for each region.

I see a lot of false logic here on the boards as people prepare for a "universal" die-off" instead of "pin-point" die-off. We can see this happening right now. Pin-point die-off is happening in Darfur, Somalia, Iraq, etc.

When preparing for a scale down in human population, it is also important to see that the way the transition will take place will look very different in one area versus another. While disease and famine may be common in densely populated Asian settlements in China/India, the age of mortality may simply shorten in many First World countries due to poverty, malnutrition, lack of medical/dental care, etc.

Remember, if we are to lose 5 billion people, there'll still be a billion or two left. Where will they be living? My guess is that many of the survivors will be wealthier, First World denizens who live in temperate climates.

aflurry · Intermediate Crude Joined: Mar 28, 2005 Posts: 839

Right. Business as usual... only more so.

thuja

?? lol

Ludi

I think a number of us have posited that the die-off will occur primarily in the populations which tend to die now - the poor, the ill, the old, and the very young.
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thuja

But it is the poor, the ill, the very young and old that will not die indiscriminately. They will die to large extent in areas where the carrying capacity is overshot when fossil fuels are taken away. They will die in bioregions where rainfall is very low, where there is no alternative energy infrastructure, where the citizens are poor, where the country has little political power.

And die-off in the sense of an overwhelming wave of deaaths may never happen in some areas. Reductions in population could very well happen due to reducd life expectancy and slower than 2.0 breeding rates.

So die-off? Its a very nebulous term that gets bandied around here and often gets misinterpreted..

Ludi

There will be differences in which regions experience the worst attrition, definitely. I don't know that anyone has much argued otherwise. I don't know that I've seen much debate that die-off will affect all populations equally. I guess I missed it. But maybe that's because I tend to skip over a lot of the "zombie hordes" and "run screaming from the cities" types of posts.
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EnergyUnlimited · Fusion Joined: May 15, 2006 Posts: 3396

Ludi

Loss of 4- 5 billion people over 50-100 years I don't think can be called "slow" I'd call that devastating.
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thuja

Narz

I'm not going to die in the next thirty-forty years unless someone kills me. In America the only folks who are going to kick it are the poor, old, unhealthy, unlucky, stupid, violent and criminals. It's a big country, lot of land still to be had. I imagine my folks will see the light before it's too late and if nothing else I do works out I can always go live with them on their rural property (they have a city home too which they can liquidate for a large sum if need be).

Life's too short to be afraid of death. While the crazy bomb-shelter guys are hunker in their bunker with peanut butter the ones who will survive will be setting up their sustainable lifestyles and most importantly building the relationships that will ensure their survival.
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Ludi

Narz

Not to say I don't plan to heavily prepare. Those prepared will fare better than others. I just don't see tens of millions starving to death in the streets of the United States anytime soon. Certain rural areas (that are too cold much of the year to grow anything) and certain urban/suburban ones maybe but the people who see it coming will survive for awhile, albeit at a much lower quality of life.

That's my opinion, if you disagree, well, time will tell. Smile

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TommyJefferson

mmasters · Last edited by mmasters on Sun Jun 24, 2007 1:21 pm; edited 1 time in total

Yeah I think die off will be more contextual as well. It will be a mixture of economic warfare, class warfare, regional warfare, racial warfare, epidemics, etc... Some here don't have the mind for thinking through all the contexts. I think the best strategy is general preperation with the ability to make more specific preperations at any given time based on a moving observation of the situation.
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MttJocy · Coal Joined: Jun 24, 2007 Posts: 3