Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Then won't global warming be even more dramatic than it is?
I mean, if the temperature of the planet would be high by 6 degrees Celsius, even though it's only 1 degree celsius due to global dimming, then wouldn't that mean that temperatures when combined with methane hydrates which may boost temps 5-10 C, that would be 16 degrees C.
If the temperature raises by 16 degrees C for a number of years, that could really wipe out alot of people/territory/land.
That would be (16/5)*9.
So that would be 3.2 * 9, which is 28.8 degrees Fahrenheit. So that would be a 28.8 degree increase in the temperature of Fahrenheit.
A 28.8 degree temperature increase would roast people in Africa, South America, Central America, The Middle East, India, China, Austrailia, and The United States.
The coastal regions would be flooded, and island states would disappear.
Although there would be refuge for Americans in Canada, and Europeans in Eastern Europe and Russia.
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 792 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2007 12:16 pm Post subject: Re: If this is true, then shouldn't... uh oh...
I'm thinking I should start looking into buying a plot of land in Barrow, Alaska...LOL. Those arctic breezes are going to be feeling mighty good if the earth really does warm up by 20-30 degrees.
P.S. Oops, forgot about the rise in sea level Perhaps somewhere along the Brooks Range would be nice...hehe.
Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2007 3:26 pm Post subject: Re: If this is true, then shouldn't... uh oh...
So tragic and we are the smartest thing to hit the planet?
The party is still on in full swing, enjoy it as long as you can. _________________ "Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4338 Location: Graceland
Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2007 4:40 pm Post subject: Re: If this is true, then shouldn't... uh oh...
It's okay, I'll just stay inside and keep the air conditioner running.
The Russians are actually excited about this because it will open up shipping lanes in the north. I'm not sure what kind of shipping there will be with half the world baked to a crisp, but the lanes will be open....maybe shipments of sunscreen.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1658 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2007 6:35 pm Post subject: Re: If this is true, then shouldn't... uh oh...
BigTex wrote:
maybe shipments of sunscreen.
No, I think the next big industry will be chopping off pieces of the glaciers and sea ice and transporting them down to cool the people in the temperate and tropical zones. Of course, that will accelerate the destruction of the Arctic ice and global warming will get worse, but that never stopped anybody from trying to make some money, right?
_________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Nov 08, 2005 Posts: 265 Location: The Maple State
Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2007 8:10 pm Post subject: Re: If this is true, then shouldn't... uh oh...
Oh great, just when I thought about 1 month ago I had hit the bottom of the 'doom' barrel! And a day after an internet real-estate search showed me that those real-estate 'deals' in hobbie farms in Northern BC (cheap compared to the urban recreational market of Southern BC) seem to have disappeared!
Altough it would help explain all the current airport expansions. In the near future we may be encouraged to continue to jet across the Atlantic for short holidays even though we may barely be able to feed ourselves!
Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 67 Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2007 9:09 pm Post subject: Re: If this is true, then shouldn't... uh oh...
No worries...if it ever appeared that global warming was getting this bad, the neo-cons would try to make a case that the Russians had managed to control our weather and we'd gear up for war.
Much easier than seeing the issue for what it is and giving up our addiction to happy motoring.
Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2007 9:46 pm Post subject: Re: If this is true, then shouldn't... uh oh...
Kylon wrote:
If this is true,
And this is true,
Then won't global warming be even more dramatic than it is?
Yes. I've reviewed these issues before, global dimming and the methane gun hypothesis are two very dangerous wild cards. And even by itself global dimming has the potential for devastating consequences.
Also, it's pretty messed up and amusing, but chimneys belching with black smoke might be better for the environment then filtered emissions. Unfortunately our successes in capturing soot particulates from power plants and auto emissions seems to be halting and reversing global dimming. Peak Dimming? And finally when the Peak Oil, Peak Coal really start choking off soot production, the sky's will clear and the heat will be on! Talk about jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire!
Posted: Tue Jul 10, 2007 10:04 pm Post subject: Re: If this is true, then shouldn't... uh oh...
Art_Vandelai wrote:
No worries...if it ever appeared that global warming was getting this bad, the neo-cons would try to make a case that the Russians had managed to control our weather and we'd gear up for war.
Could happen. I've heard Russia is nervous about border issues and climate refugees, it's certainly something being thought about.
Speaking of war, how about war against the weather!
"He argues that simulating a volcanic winter -- the cooling that follows major volcanic eruptions like Mount Pinatubo in 1991 -- is the most practical approach to managing global warming."
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1643025/posts
There are a number of other articles, one amusing one suggested shelling the atmosphere with dust to create this effect. I wonder if in the future, will we be at war with the weather, with each other or both!
Joined: Oct 16, 2004 Posts: 1281 Location: Brisbane, Australia
Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 6:20 am Post subject: Re: If this is true, then shouldn't... uh oh...
I've heard of a suggestion to pump aerosolised sulphur into the upper atmosphere too, as sulphur reflects sunlight back out to space. And you know what sulphur in the atmospere leads to - acid rain. Just when we successfully beat that problem, they want to do it deliberately. _________________ Kind regards, Katkinkate
"The ultimate goal of farming is not the growing of crops,
but the cultivation and perfection of human beings."
Masanobu Fukuoka
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3429 Location: California, USA
Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 8:52 am Post subject: Re: If this is true, then shouldn't... uh oh...
Well folks, I hate to have to be the one to spell it out for you but...
Lovelock's forecast is that +5C = the only habitable regions of Earth remaining will be at the extreme northernmost and southernmost latitudes, including the poles. At that point he says the human population would probably be below a half billion.
If, as per the first BBC link, we are now talking about +10 to +16C, then the bottom line is it truly is game over, we're done for, not just human extinction but the complete reboot of the planetary ecosystems. Probably no large animals will survive that.
Along the way there will be a mad scramble of humanity to reach the poles. This will lead to brutal wars for national survival on the part of the nations closest to the poles. Americans looking to get into Canada rather than starve like present-day sub-Saharan Africans, will be mowed down at the border. Ditto similar cases elsewhere.
But in the end it will be for nought, as the tipping points tip and the positive feedback loops loop and the whole damn thing spirals out of control until there are no more humans and no more large animals and probably no more large plants either.
And then let's try to figure out how many hundreds of thousands of years it might take, or millions of years, assuming Earth doesn't end up permanently cooked like Venus, before evolution restarts in the direction of large animals and another potentially sentient species.
We ourselves may become the next petroleum reserves for whatever comes after, by the time there is anything to come after. If that.
I can think of a couple of ways out.
Unfortunately my little phrase "humanitarian nuclear war" isn't a joke any more. Take down the population by 3/4 or 4/5, throw a bunch of finely aerosolized particulates into the upper atmosphere, and pray.
It takes ground bursts of hydrogen bombs to throw the most "stuff" up highest into the atmosphere, into the jet stream.
So those are our choices. Nuclear winter for a century, or Saharan summer forever. Even a global ecoterrorist movement armed with suitcase A-bombs isn't going to do the trick; at most it would cause a few million casualties and shut down national economies, but that is not enough.
Sorry y'all. Especially the under-40 crowd.
I am hard pressed to find a string of obscene words quite strong enough to do justice to this one.
I feel like I'm going to throw up.
And I suppose the only thing positive to say about all this is, we are finally well & truly free. No further worries about gettiing it wrong, because if we even manage to survive as a species we've gotten it right.
So do whatever you think might help, because if enough of us do enough of that, some of us might slip through this particular Darwinian bottleneck and make it out the other side.
Just please no suicides, eh? At least consider how fascinating it will be to stick around and watch it all play out. You have a ringside seat for events of large magnitude. May as well just go into pure scientific curiosity mode and observe. Or pray. Pray that those estimates are wrong and that the ecosystems are more robust than that. Pray as if your life depends on it, because it does, and everyone else's does.
Learn to meditate, it's really quite simple and you will need it.
Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 9:18 am Post subject: Re: If this is true, then shouldn't... uh oh...
gg3 wrote:
Well folks, I hate to have to be the one to spell it out for you but...
Pray as if your life depends on it, because it does, and everyone else's does.
Learn to meditate, it's really quite simple and you will need it.
I never fail to get my daily dose of doom and gloom. I think I am addicted and am powerless over this addiction.
My two cents (worth a lot less given the way the economy is heading): I think this is all a test and it will not be a matter of just physical survival, but rather how we survive and the choices that we make as we face adversity and possibly extinction. How we choose to live out our lives will be paramount as we try to keep our spirituality and humanity alive in the face of our physical death. These crises will put us all to the test.
Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2007 11:28 am Post subject: Re: If this is true, then shouldn't... uh oh...
gg3 wrote:
Unfortunately my little phrase "humanitarian nuclear war" isn't a joke any more. Take down the population by 3/4 or 4/5, throw a bunch of finely aerosolized particulates into the upper atmosphere, and pray.
It takes ground bursts of hydrogen bombs to throw the most "stuff" up highest into the atmosphere, into the jet stream.
So those are our choices. Nuclear winter for a century, or Saharan summer forever.
Humanitarian Nuclear War (worst case scenario)
It has been said that when there is no solution to a problem, war is a solution. The question here is, at what point would a nuclear solution be necessary, because that would be when such a war would happen (if there are plans for this scenario). Also for an ideal outcome, such a war would be against less well armed nations, perhaps northern nations against southern populations. This would reduce damage to civilizations knowledge base and radiation fallout to arable lands in the northern hemisphere.
I don't think we are at that point yet and this war or wars would only begin after catastrophic global warming become clearly visible, which may be only a few decades. And as it is likely that we already burned enough hydrocarbons to cause catastrophic global warming, this might be a possibility.
The "Highlander II" Solution (best case scenario)
I feel we will be trying many things first before nuclear war, seeding the atmosphere with sulfur and reflective satellites, seeding the oceans(not likely to work well but we will try), and there will be a great deal of starvation before we begin all out nuclear war.
Nuclear blasts in the deserts (the middle ground solution)
Another possibility to avoid war, as dry deserts grow it may be that nuclear blasts will be done purposefully on deserted land instead of direct attacks on populations. I think this would be a fair middle ground, if other technologies didn't work.
However the nuclear conclusion for mankind is an interesting concept. It would be like the end of a fireworks show, the show being the oil/industrial age of mankind. Lets just hope the grand finally doesn't land on the audience!
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1658 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2007 4:20 pm Post subject: Re: If this is true, then shouldn't... uh oh...
steam_cannon wrote:
Lets just hope the grand finally doesn't land on the audience!
Gee, I hope not, at least not before I finish my popcorn. This stuff is getting expensive! _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
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Perhaps somewhere along the Brooks Range would be nice...hehe.
