Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4867 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2007 8:19 am Post subject: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.
More bad OIL news.
Quote:
Oil reserves are running out even faster than previously predicted.
For the last 30 years they have said oil reserves are not in crisis now in a massive u-turn, the International Energy Agency says demand driven by exponential growth will outstrip supply within 3 to 5 years.
The report makes depressing reading with worldwide oil consumption expected to increase from 86 to 95 billion barrels a day, current oil supplies simply will not be able to satisfy demand from a world economy expanding by nearly 5 percent a year when production starts to tails off from 2010.
Now it costs almost US $70 US dollars a barrel and industry experts say that will keep rising.
“We think that it will increase up to 80, 90 maybe 100 US dollars a barrel within the next year".
“If oil goes up, food goes up everything in society goes up basically because oil is such a key component of the way we live and the way we do our business.”
Here's some comments.
Quote:
The company that I work for just found the largest oil reserve in history, about 6 months ago.
So really , if your right , who gives a Fark? What are YOU doing about it , hoarding gas , buying gold , stock piling food? What can you do about it , if youre right , and you are , just that your time line is off.
"Inventory data continues to demonstrate that crude stocks are ample," the statement said. "US crude stocks are now at nine-year highs
The national reserve IS at a 9 year high, we have more oil now than when it was a buck a gallon.
The ONLY reason we're paying the high prices we are now is because of speculators, plenty of oil is being pumped out of the ground....
Dropped .12 in the last week here actual wholesale prices....peak propaganda.
Global demand has fallen over the last year, it's the SPECULATORS that are farking us...
it's not peak oil dudes..
it's peak panic for oil.. to make us scared.. and have a pseudo- understanding why oil should be high priced.
you are full of bullshit fjr. it's Fark like you that cause the price of oil to go up. anytime there is panic about the supply of oil the price goes up. you think the multi billion dollar auto industry isn't smart enough to invest money into researching future oil supplies? yeah, they are just going to wing it and hope for the best....oil availibility means nothing to a automotive manufacturer and their long term survivability. they're infinetely smarter than you and all of your cut and pastes....which btw are designed to brainwash consumers into thinking it is OK to see price increases....because we are running out of the stuff.
I would doubt that FJR owns an FJR.
As always in his posts NO ORIGINAL thoughts. No denial here. Just optimism in capitalism and the USA work ethic to adapt and overcome. Whiners never excel in life and FJR is probably a prime example. Negative people like FJR expect that we, the tax payers will continue to haul along his lazy ass the remainder of his life why he continues to sing the blues about the end of the world.
you can go through life terrified of your fears...or you can meet them head on. What you are doing is the first option...I just look at every new day just as it is.
this is typical of people who are afraid of life. "Here are all the problems" they scream...."some one else please fix them" the wish silently.
See, that was my whole point...FJR keeps warning us, but there is never a solution. Dude, we know already, stop beating us over the head with this peak oil crap, ok, ok, we farking get it. Should I buy a horse and buggy?
Methane...Solar power..Electricty..Human slave labor...Pedal power..Rubber bands..Nucluear engerknee. Dogs, horses, cows..even hogs...We could walk. We COULD explore other planets and moons..like Titan for example..The whole planetoid is covered in NATUARL GAS.. Frozen like snow..
Joined: May 15, 2005 Posts: 4142 Location: THE MATRIX
Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2007 9:58 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.
Look at the complete sheeple all you want but I think the efforts or lack thereof of most of those who proclaim to be peak aware shows the very real tail of the beast clinging to our collective backs...
"They had alot to say, they had alot of NOTHING to say, we shall miss them, we're gonna miss them" Tool
One does not have to look anywhere else but here to see denial or perhaps by gazing into a mirror... _________________ It is easier to enslave a people that wish to remain free then it is to free a people who wish to remain enslaved.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2007 10:09 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.
Those that keep pointing to “high” crude inventories are ignoring these important things
1. Total commercial oil plus oil product inventories are down year over year
2. US inventories may not be indicative of the rest of the world
3. Almost 20 million barrels more in US crude stocks (year over year) is less than one day’s increase in terms of days of US supply.
4. Current inventories tell us nothing about future supplies
Attacks against PO sound more and more desperate, empty, and shrill as time goes on. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:10 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.
Denial is predictable. Social psychology theories abound which predict nearly impenetrable denial due to extreme cognitive dissonance. The vast majority of the US citizenry is highly committed to a petrol based life. This started after WWII and is deeply ingrained. It is a commonplace that people will adhere to beliefs toward which they are strongly invested and reject contrary evidence which imply that a change in their direction is required. Many people will not change their minds until the SHTF. Many of us here will not change our ways until the SHTF. Rob Berger, Licensed Psychologist.
Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:55 am Post subject: Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.
NEOPO wrote:
"They had alot to say, they had alot of NOTHING to say, we shall miss them, we're gonna miss them" Tool
Just as an fyi NEO, the lyric is singular, not plural, i.e. "He", not "They". A reference mainly to L. Ron Hubbard according to various interviews with the band, and a comment more generally on proselytizers that feign martyrdom.
But I get what you're saying.
And yea, lots of dain bread denialists out there... _________________ "It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4338 Location: Graceland
Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2007 12:02 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.
rdberg1957 wrote:
Denial is predictable. Social psychology theories abound which predict nearly impenetrable denial due to extreme cognitive dissonance. The vast majority of the US citizenry is highly committed to a petrol based life. This started after WWII and is deeply ingrained. It is a commonplace that people will adhere to beliefs toward which they are strongly invested and reject contrary evidence which imply that a change in their direction is required. Many people will not change their minds until the SHTF. Many of us here will not change our ways until the SHTF. Rob Berger, Licensed Psychologist.
Look at the way individuals react to knowledge of their own ultimate death: it's okay, I have a religion that will provide me with immortality, "so I have that going for me, which is nice." Totally sidesteps the issue and eases the nerves.
Faced with future depletion of fossil fuels, which are resources critical to collective life, notice the similarities to the approach described above: it's okay, we have technology and human ingenuity which will provide a substitute for our energy needs, so we have that going for us, we're okay.
When faced with truly mind-bending problems or unpleasant realities, people ease almost effortlessly into denial.
Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2007 12:22 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.
Eh...I kind of liked the reply. I mean, no disrespect to the original poster.
Peak oil is a reality, no doubt. I am certainly not in denial. But, after visiting this site for years, the general vibe of the peak oil folks has gotten pretty tired.
The world is running out of oil, doom is upon us, we will all be eating cat food if we're lucky.... and that's where it stops. Nothing beyond that.
"Just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic", "Will our future be like Mad Max, or worse?", "The end is nigh", "TSHTF very soon", "The Great Depression will look like a day at Disneyworld", "The sheeple will be the first to go"...
I mean, I must've read these posts and articles well over 400 times, and nothing changes. If you were to compare this forum four years ago to this forum now, there would be very little difference. I get the doom part, we all get the doom part, but what is the next step?
Meanwhile there really is a lot of interesting, progressive things going on with new sources of energy. There are people not just thinking, but actually creating some remarkable, realistic alternatives. I read Green Car Congress every day, and I'm just amazed at how fast things have progressed on this front in just 2-3 years. I know very well there is no magical overnight cure, and there is no seemless transition, but there is possibility. People are looking at the reality of peak oil, and saying "Ok, what do we need to do to meet this challenge?". It's as if everyday there is something new, while everyday here is more of the same. I mean, at the very least, I expect to see some gloating from those of us who have made some nice cash on our oil/energy holdings bought back in '04.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4338 Location: Graceland
Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2007 2:05 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.
syrac818 wrote:
Eh...I kind of liked the reply. I mean, no disrespect to the original poster.
Peak oil is a reality, no doubt. I am certainly not in denial. But, after visiting this site for years, the general vibe of the peak oil folks has gotten pretty tired.
The world is running out of oil, doom is upon us, we will all be eating cat food if we're lucky.... and that's where it stops. Nothing beyond that.
"Just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic", "Will our future be like Mad Max, or worse?", "The end is nigh", "TSHTF very soon", "The Great Depression will look like a day at Disneyworld", "The sheeple will be the first to go"...
I mean, I must've read these posts and articles well over 400 times, and nothing changes. If you were to compare this forum four years ago to this forum now, there would be very little difference. I get the doom part, we all get the doom part, but what is the next step?
Meanwhile there really is a lot of interesting, progressive things going on with new sources of energy. There are people not just thinking, but actually creating some remarkable, realistic alternatives. I read Green Car Congress every day, and I'm just amazed at how fast things have progressed on this front in just 2-3 years. I know very well there is no magical overnight cure, and there is no seemless transition, but there is possibility. People are looking at the reality of peak oil, and saying "Ok, what do we need to do to meet this challenge?". It's as if everyday there is something new, while everyday here is more of the same. I mean, at the very least, I expect to see some gloating from those of us who have made some nice cash on our oil/energy holdings bought back in '04.
Just my opinion.
Next step is to acknowledge at the mainstream level of society the problem we are trying to solve, and not just on this forum. When you say "people are looking at the reality of peak oil", who do you mean? It's not a large group. Most people perceive alternative energy as a gee whiz kind of technology showcase and potential way to counter the effects of high fossil fuel prices. It is not yet well understood that the alternative energy game may be a life or death proposition for many people. I don't think that's an overstatement.
It will be the realization by the man on the street that this PO thing is a BIG DEAL that will get the Manhatten Project kind of focus and commitment that will be needed to come up with even a potential end game that is not a disaster.
Look at government funding and subsidies for alternative energy and compare it to government funding and subsidies for fossil fuels and it is obvious that there is no urgency at the government level to address this problem.
Look at the CAFE standards in the U.S. Absolutely no urgency there.
Look at the global warming issue and the projected impact of much of the world turning to coal when oil gets too expensive. Not only is no one talking about that one, but people are still arguing about whether global warming even matters.
To the question "what do we need to do to meet this challenge", I think you are going to find that there is not much agreement on what "this challenge" means. The oil cos. will say "this challenge" refers to exploring for oil in more and more exotic places. The developing world will say "this challenge" means being able to buy enough of ANYTHING (oil, coal, firewood) to keep their populations from starving. The OPEC countries will say "this challenge" means being able to sell expensive oil for as long as possible and delaying the development of any alternatives for as long as possible as well. The U.S. government will say "this challenge" refers to securing an adequate supply of fossil fuels to power the U.S. economy and ensure the "non-negotiability of the U.S. way of life."
On this board, you will find that "this challenge" refers not only to coming up with possible solutions to the PO pickle, but also to finding some way of getting people to even understand what the PO pickle is.
I understand how a person who attempts to get his or her friends and relatives interested in the PO issue and start talking about its importance and gets blank stares will, after enough of the stonewall/denial/everything's okay routine, start talking about eating cat food and driving around in his Mad Max car. When individuals see that their community does not appear to be taking sufficient action to address an issue you begin to see those individuals taking steps to protect themselves, sometimes in ways that seem a little silly (backyard bomb shelters come to mind).
You pose your "okay, what do we need to do now?" declaration as if everyone is in agreement that there is a problem. I think that part of what drives people crazy here is that no one seems to want to admit that there is a problem. If you look at the energy policies of major industrialized countries, you will see that the focus and priority for most of them is on securing sources of fossil fuels, not on finding ways to dramatically reduce reliance on them and eventually replace them with something else. I suggest that the most progessive nations' efforts today on this front are token, though Europe is probably about 10 years ahead of the U.S.
In the U.S., the fact is that the oil companies, coal companies, and automobile companies swing a MUCH bigger political stick than the alternative energy companies and the green lobby, and I don't see that changing soon. Until that changes in a meaningful way, the "what do we do now" question will not begin to get any real traction.
I HAVE enjoyed making money in energy investments the last few years. To mangle the metaphor, it's sort of like charging rent for the use of deck chairs on the Titanic.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2007 3:05 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.
syrac818 wrote:
I mean, I must've read these posts and articles well over 400 times, and nothing changes. If you were to compare this forum four years ago to this forum now, there would be very little difference. I get the doom part, we all get the doom part, but what is the next step?
Go to Planning for the Future, or start a local awareness program like Heinberg does. I keep track of the Current Energy News here, and guys like Toecutter contribute great posts on tech developments, whatever that's going to be good for. The Doom I mostly skim over. More of a Castle Wolfenstein fan anyway. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: Dec 06, 2005 Posts: 888 Location: Stopped at the border.
Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2007 3:09 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.
Yeah, I haven't been entirely comfortable with the denial on this site when it comes to alt energy. My dad grew up on a homestead in the mountains of Colorado during the great depression. The family had a turbine in the nearby stream. That far off of a non-existent grid and during the toughest times they had enough power for lights and a boost to cooking and heat. Granted it was a little boost but it meant the essential difference sometimes. Clearly it wasn't the turbine alone but the ingenuity that really served to close the gap.
If you think about it, if TSHTF you can build a wind generator from a few essentials like car alternaters, metal rods (like allthread), car batteries, jerry rigged blades, rv inverters and several feet of cable. Most of that stuff is surplus car parts. All of it would be readily available after the worst. What you really need to worry about is what you can't get, like salt and antibiotics. For those you need society.
Simply put, the best investment in society, to survive after the peak is the truth. Without a certain level of truth democratic societies will have a problem when it comes to resource allocation post peak. We don't have the kind of hoarding based industrial system that the Soviets did. When the Soviet Union collapsed there was a lot of stuff around that people could just appropriate. Just in time inventory management limits the reactions that the people in a modern democracy have to choose from. It doesn't have to limit them to the point of failure. _________________ "Hope encourages men to take risks; men in a strong position may follow her without ruin, if not without loss. But when they stake all that they have to the last coin (for she is a spendthrift), she reveals her real self in the hour of failure."
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13192 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2007 3:47 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.
evilgenius wrote:
If you think about it, if TSHTF you can build a wind generator from a few essentials like car alternaters, metal rods (like allthread), car batteries, jerry rigged blades, rv inverters and several feet of cable. Most of that stuff is surplus car parts. All of it would be readily available after the worst.
I would be impressed if you (or anyone on here) actually built such a thing, showed us your work, and your energy output from it. That's why I like much of the Planning Forum, because people are actually DOING stuff, and posting about their work (even showing their work in photos) and not just jawing about "what you could do."
I don't care what you COULD do, I'm interested in what you ARE DOING.
And because I don't see many people doing much, I tend to be rather pessimistic (though an optimist compared to many here).
If that's "denial when it comes to alt energy" oh well, call me "in denial." _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Joined: Nov 08, 2005 Posts: 265 Location: The Maple State
Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2007 4:03 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.
On PeakOil.com:
Quote:
The world is running out of oil, doom is upon us, we will all be eating cat food if we're lucky.... and that's where it stops. Nothing beyond that.
So how is your denial manifested?
I will predict you have done little to prepare personally since you block the preparation information available and discussed that is the primary topic of at least half the threads in this site.
(Well maybe you have stocked up on catfood.
Last edited by keehah on Mon Jul 16, 2007 4:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
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