Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1627 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:50 am Post subject: Re: Oil Movements - OPEC Shipments Falling
Quote:
"It's still very unseasonal activity we're seeing for this time of year" when OPEC sailings are substantially higher, Mason said.
There's going to be a lot of "unseasonable activity" in the oil markets from here on in. Combine this with the drops in Alaska, the North Sea, Mexico and others and the fact that we're still well below May, 2005 C&C output and the May, 2006 all liquids output and it's getting much clearer that the global peak is at hand. No begging by the IEA to OPEC to increase output is going to create more oil, especially when depletion rates are all surprising to the downside.
How I hate interesting times. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5882 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:28 am Post subject: Re: Oil Movements - OPEC Shipments Falling
Mideast shippers see no sign of a pick up in OPEC exports to meet the expected “call” of 2.8 million bpd from the IEA in the second half of the year. Instead shipping rates through the Suez Canal are falling to the lowest rates this year:
Quote:
LLOYDS LIST
July 27, 2007
Suezmax 'marshmallow' tendencies now 'suet pudding'
IF YOU are a suezmax owner you are probably in need of a bit of encouragement before the latest rates for this week are unveiled in this column, writes Mike Grinter in Hong Kong.
The US investment bank has reviewed its analysis of the tanker market on the basis of an expected call on the oil cartel Opec to increase output by 2.8m barrels per day for the second half of the year.
Shipowners and brokers will find this analysis does not add up to what they have witnessed unfolding on trading floors and on the high seas in recent months.
Rates for suezmax did not reach the level cited during the second quarter, and as we enter the third quarter the picture is no brighter. In fact, during the last couple of weeks, the trade has seen a 'marshmallow' tendency become 'suet pudding' soft.
Suezmax trade out of West Africa to the US Gulf and Europe continues to decline from W100 two weeks ago to W90 last week.
This was followed by a further fall to the lowest rates all year of W77.5 midweek.
Suezmax owners can only hope that Opec will release its extra 2.8m barrels per day into the market soon. However, Norwegian brokers said that this extra cargo will not appear in the coming weeks.
Lloyd’s List
Subscription required _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3886 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 11:36 am Post subject: Re: Oil Movements - OPEC Shipments Falling
Well that has got to be very comforting for the traders.
We have a nice GDP number but I think oil is really messing with people on what to do now. It looks like OPEC is really in trouble, we all knew this but it is now becoming obvious.
Oil may be the prime factor in the global melt down. Everything sure seems to be coming together for it to do so anyway.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5882 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Aug 05, 2007 1:54 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements - OPEC Shipments Falling
This was posted elsewhere, but I thought it also belonged here.
Oil Movements still sees no sign of a pickup of OPEC oil exports, despite some reports that OPEC production picked up in July after falling in June.
The inconsistency between increased production and falling exports is possibly explained by a potential increase in oil inventories within OPEC or an increase in domestic consumption by OPEC nations.
Quote:
In the meantime, an analyst has said that OPEC oil exports, excluding Angola, will fall 90,000 barrels per day in the four weeks to Aug. 18, as shipments to Western refiners continue to wane, an analyst who estimates future shipments said on Thursday.
Roy Mason of consultancy Oil Movements estimated OPEC seaborne exports in the four weeks would fall to 23.99 million bpd, compared with 24.08 million bpd in the four weeks to July 21.
Mason said the drop in exports was mostly on long-haul crude routes from from Gulf producers to Western refiners. Venezuelan supply also accounted for a small portion of the fall, he said. "The fall shows westbound movements are sluggish while U.S. stocks are high...refiners are eating into stocks instead of buying crude," Mason said. "It kind of argues that the market is better supplied than what we thought it might have been, refiners feel able to back away and not buy (extra barrels)," he added.
Vanguard _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5882 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Aug 09, 2007 10:54 am Post subject: Re: Oil Movements - OPEC Shipments Falling
Oil Movements revised down its expectations of July shipments, but revised up its projections going forward, saying there was some increase in OPEC production for shipments to Japan:
Quote:
8/9/07 Oster Dow Jones 15:30:17
August 9, 2007
DJ OPEC Oil Exports In 4 Wks To Aug 25 Seen +360,000B/D-Tracker
LONDON, Aug 09, 2007 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- Seaborne OPEC oil shipments are expected to jump by 360,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Aug. 25 from the previous one-month period, with most of those exports headed to Asia, U.K. tanker tracker Oil Movements said Thursday.
Shipments from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are seen rising to a total of 24.22 million barrels a day versus 23.86 million barrels a day in the four weeks to July 28, said Roy Mason, head of the consultancy. The expected increase is the biggest seen in over a month.
Mason said OPEC shipments to Japan in particular were being driven by increased fuel-oil demand from power stations after the country shut a big nuclear power plant following an earthquake in mid-July that plant operators feared might have damaged some part of the facility.
Mason, however, said he was not expecting this week's forecast jump to be repeated in next week's report.
"There is little evidence of a lot of activity in the tanker market, and that leads this whole process of OPEC shipments. Volumes are not very high and tanker rates are on the floor," he said.
Mason also revised down last week's data, with OPEC shipments now seen as having fallen a net 160,000 barrels a day to 23.92 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Aug. 18 versus the previous one-month period from an original expectation of a net drop of 90,000 barrels a day.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-09-07 1130ET
[sorry, no link possible] _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Nov 07, 2005 Posts: 554 Location: London, UK
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 7:03 am Post subject: Re: Oil Movements - OPEC Shipments Falling
Yeh yeh high sulphur etc etc.
My question is this.
What kind of farking nonsense English is BACKWARDATION.
If people can't use proper words or use words they make up (to appear more intelligent, because they know noone will have heard of it before), then please shut up.
Rant over. _________________ THE FUTURE IS HISTORY!
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 9:17 am Post subject: Re: Oil Movements - OPEC Shipments Falling
Gazzatrone wrote:
<snip>
My question is this.
What kind of farking nonsense English is BACKWARDATION.
<snip>
Rant over.
"Backwardation"
Backwardation (sometimes incorrectly referred to as "backwardization") is a futures market term: it means a downward sloping forward curve (as in an inverted yield curve): one says that the forward curve is "in backwardation" (or sometimes: "backwardated").
Link -> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backwardation
My Question is this....
Will this become the new "Buzzword" in coming months/years ???
:twisted evil:
CT
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 11:39 am Post subject: Re: Oil Movements - OPEC Shipments Falling
Conflagration: during the next couple of years, it seems, that we will be facing many possible deleterious events, which will be emerging almost simultaneously. At this point, falling world oil production from 2 to 8% is almost assured. From here on out, oil’s declining ERoEI will be reducing the world’s available net energy by about 5% per year, and that decline will be accelerating rapidly in time. The Import/Export Land model appears to be a valid hypothesis, at least in the near term, and Abrupt Climate Change is threatening everything from power to food production.
We appear to be facing monumental adversities which are threatening the very structure of civilization, and yet, we seem to be mindlessly proceeding along, as if nothing at all were happening. Pathetic!
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 11:52 am Post subject: Re: Oil Movements - OPEC Shipments Falling
shortonoil wrote:
Conflagration: during the next couple of years, it seems, that we will be facing many possible deleterious events, which will be emerging almost simultaneously. At this point, falling world oil production from 2 to 8% is almost assured. From here on out, oil’s declining ERoEI will be reducing the world’s available net energy by about 5% per year, and that decline will be accelerating rapidly in time. The Import/Export Land model appears to be a valid hypothesis, at least in the near term, and Abrupt Climate Change is threatening everything from power to food production.
We appear to be facing monumental adversities which are threatening the very structure of civilization, and yet, we seem to be mindlessly proceeding along, as if nothing at all were happening. Pathetic!
How about Fark as millions of square miles of tundra and peat bog melt releasing billions of tons of stinking rotting methane (the very worst greenhouse gas) into the atmosphere and thus heating said atmosphere and as a consequence melting more tundra thus releasing additional methane. and ad infinitum all over again.
This is the very definition of a cataclysmic ecologic positive-feedback loop. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 12:08 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements - OPEC Shipments Falling
shortonoil wrote:
Conflagration: during the next couple of years, it seems, that we will be facing many possible deleterious events, which will be emerging almost simultaneously. At this point, falling world oil production from 2 to 8% is almost assured. From here on out, oil’s declining ERoEI will be reducing the world’s available net energy by about 5% per year, and that decline will be accelerating rapidly in time. The Import/Export Land model appears to be a valid hypothesis, at least in the near term, and Abrupt Climate Change is threatening everything from power to food production.
We appear to be facing monumental adversities which are threatening the very structure of civilization, and yet, we seem to be mindlessly proceeding along, as if nothing at all were happening. Pathetic!
Where are your facts to support? EIA data shows a .5% drop over 2 years. The export drop was 3.2% 05 to 06. Even bearish analysts show a slow decline until around 2012. Even bearish climate observers show climate changes over a longer time span. We all agree with the necessity to change quickly, but facts, not fear or unsupported conclusions should control this debate IMO.
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 12:58 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements - OPEC Shipments Falling
I wonder if the shipments to western refineries have dropped because were above average on our crude oil supply. Don't we have like 400 million barrels stored in various places around the country? Shipping more oil might drive down the price...and the oil people don't want that now do they?
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 1:09 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements - OPEC Shipments Falling
newman1979 wrote:
shortonoil wrote:
Conflagration: during the next couple of years, it seems, that we will be facing many possible deleterious events, which will be emerging almost simultaneously. At this point, falling world oil production from 2 to 8% is almost assured. From here on out, oil’s declining ERoEI will be reducing the world’s available net energy by about 5% per year, and that decline will be accelerating rapidly in time. The Import/Export Land model appears to be a valid hypothesis, at least in the near term, and Abrupt Climate Change is threatening everything from power to food production.
We appear to be facing monumental adversities which are threatening the very structure of civilization, and yet, we seem to be mindlessly proceeding along, as if nothing at all were happening. Pathetic!
Where are your facts to support? EIA data shows a .5% drop over 2 years. The export drop was 3.2% 05 to 06. Even bearish analysts show a slow decline until around 2012. Even bearish climate observers show climate changes over a longer time span. We all agree with the necessity to change quickly, but facts, not fear or unsupported conclusions should control this debate IMO.
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 1:10 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements - OPEC Shipments Falling
newman1979 wrote:
Where are your facts to support? EIA data shows a .5% drop over 2 years. The export drop was 3.2% 05 to 06. Even bearish analysts show a slow decline until around 2012.
It is around 2012 that it all goes pear-shaped. We are on an undulating plateau, so by definition nothing really exciting will be appearing in the data right now. After 2010 we will be seeing 12% year-on-year oil export drops from the Russians, cessation of exports from Mexico accompanied by Soviet-style implosion of their economy, and increasingly obvious export declines from OPEC. All this you will see in EIA data and from numerous other official sources when it happens, just as with the UKCS. Knowing OPEC, they will continue to obfuscate about their proven reserves and production capacities, but some people will still be counting barrels in because it's their job. We do have a few years until this. In the meantime, some major exporters continue to grow production, so no-one credible is calling an oil crash right now.
newman1979 wrote:
We all agree with the necessity to change quickly, but facts, not fear or unsupported conclusions should control this debate IMO.
Facts typically emerge after the event. EIA IPM facts have a 3 month lag, BP and DTI (now DBERR) facts have a 6 month lag. Anyone who waits for official confirmation before drawing their conclusions is doing their thinking too late. And officials are not in the business of sketching on graph paper their neighbour's exports tanking in double digits and sending it off to a national news outfit.
We have bits and pieces of data here and there, we have a reasonably sound grasp of how things work, and we have spreadsheets. We are blessed with the ability to make hypotheses and think ahead to see how they might turn out. Let's keep doing that. The facts are always going to be available in the form of someone's speculation now, and in an official's statistical doorstop afterwards. We do not have the luxury of waiting for a big book to spell it out after it happens.
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:34 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements - OPEC Shipments Falling
Twilight wrote:
Facts typically emerge after the event. EIA IPM facts have a 3 month lag, BP and DTI (now DBERR) facts have a 6 month lag. Anyone who waits for official confirmation before drawing their conclusions is doing their thinking too late. And officials are not in the business of sketching on graph paper their neighbour's exports tanking in double digits and sending it off to a national news outfit.
We have bits and pieces of data here and there, we have a reasonably sound grasp of how things work, and we have spreadsheets. We are blessed with the ability to make hypotheses and think ahead to see how they might turn out. Let's keep doing that. The facts are always going to be available in the form of someone's speculation now, and in an official's statistical doorstop afterwards. We do not have the luxury of waiting for a big book to spell it out after it happens.
Pardon my difference of opinion, but this sounds like the argument Bush and Cheney used to start the Iraq war. This forum is current energy news and to me that means news based on factual accounts.
Posted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:46 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements - OPEC Shipments Falling
newman1979 wrote:
Pardon my difference of opinion, but this sounds like the argument Bush and Cheney used to start the Iraq war. This forum is current energy news and to me that means news based on factual accounts.
I don't know where that comparison came from. What do the two have in common?
Yes, this forum is Current Energy News. But what do people do with news? They check past expectations and update future expectations. They may adjust their position accordingly. What is the value of news otherwise?
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
