Is the U.S. southwest sustainable into a dryer future?

Denny

An interesting article in today's Toronto Star raises the possibility that the future may hold forth a renewal of the Great Lakes region. For so long, the cities that brought forth the advent of mass manufacturing in America, indeed the world, have decayed and shrunk. But in a future U.S. marked by a continuation or worsening of rainfall in the southwest, a new migration to the Great Lakes may come to pass.

See Could climate change herald mass migration?

The Great Lakes is certainly a very livable area from the standpoint of climate and farming conditions as well. And, of course, there are some amazing housing bargains to be had in places like Cleveland, Buffalo and Detroit.

vision-master

The Summer's around here are getting like Southern Califorina! NICE.............

Windmills

I would expect that populations will shift in the future in response to a variety of changing conditions. That's just the nature of populations.

As for the southwest or any area being unsustainable, the real question isn't simply can an area sustain either a huge popultion or none at all, but rather what is the sustainable carrying capacity of the area. There have been people living in the southwest continuously for many thousands of years. The problem isn't that it's impossible to live there, but that it will be impossible for millions to live there.

The same can be said for any place. Any area can see its water and other natural resources critically overused. If there's some fatal mass migration to the Great Lakes, you can be assured there will be as much suffering and lack of sustainability as any other location that finds itself in a similiar amout of overshoot.

mel1962

Nice Article! Its one of the reasons I continue to live in the Great Lakes area and put up with the winters! Rolling Eyes

I really don't want all those people up here! I was in flats in Cleveland yesterday sitting watching the abundant water (The "Mighty Cuyahoga" Wink

flowing into Lake Erie), I saw a barge, recreational boats, trains go over the lift bridge and as I sipped my beer I felt very lucky to be living in such a beautiful place.
drunken_smilie

Sure it has its problem, but if your educated and/or motivated to have your own business you can make a good living and there is plenty of cheap housing, open space and lots of fresh water. Cool

I don't think that even if the water runs out that the people in the southwest will come to Detroit, Buffalo or Cleveland. More than likely they will "invade" closer areas like Texas, Lousiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, N. Calif., Oregon, Washington, B.C., etc. first. Smile

One thing that everyone in the great lakes area is in agreement on is that we will not ship our water to other areas! Doubt

Tanada

It isn't sustainible now with current population levels, why would people expect it to get better as it dries out?
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chrispi · Tar Sands Joined: Aug 17, 2005 Posts: 80

An interesting book dealing with this subject is Cadillac Desert by Marc Reisner.

The silting of reservoirs, drying of rivers and Peak Oil will make things very interesting for the denizens of the American Southwest.
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Lore

I for one am heading back to the Great Lakes this year. Yes, please if you enjoy the Southwest, then stay by all means.
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bshirt · Heavy Crude Joined: Dec 23, 2006 Posts: 446

Zardoz

Tanada

Ferretlover

Past Peak Water in the Southwest

link http://www.swhydro.arizona.edu/archive/V6_N1/feature2.pdf

Homesteader

Come on now, Zardoz makes a valid point. It takes more than a couple of extra layers of clothing in the northern U.S. and Canada to live through December, January and February without central heat. As a 15 generation New England native and a 20 year Maine resident I can vouch for the amount of time and effort that would need to be expended every year in order to not freeze to death the following winter. Never mind keeping the pipes from freezing.

We moved to North Carolina 2 years ago. Smile

Another thread already proved there isn't enough timber to fuel all the wood stoves that would be needed.

Tanada

Roy

When the time comes, there will either be a mass migration or a mass dieoff.

How can it be any other way?

Historically, when a vital resource runs out, cities are abandoned and civilizations collapse. On that we can agree.

SoCal, Las Vegas, and the Pheonix area come to mind as some of the most unsustainable places in this country due to their population densities and a lack of naturally occurring water. Even when I lived in San Diego in the 80's, I knew something was out of kilter there.

Going back to visit in 2005 after a 20 year absence, what I saw made me want to get out of there post haste. I saw enough in two days to know I was never going back. I pity the people living there if there is any sort of disruption. The smart ones are either already gone or are making plans to leave IMHO (no offense Zardoz).

I just hope the teeming masses don't make it this far. And fortunately for those of us in good areas, maybe 5% of the population of this country has any inkling of the problems we are facing.

My guess is that many will stay and meet their fate in the desert, shortly after water supplies are disrupted for a few weeks. I hope I'm wrong but there's just too much data indicating otherwise.

[edited for grammatical error]

Homesteader