I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 8:28 pm Post subject: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality
This is my 10,000th post on peakoil.com. Over the last 3 years, I have read and written much. The overwhelmingly constant theme I read, is one that focuses on the same short-term thinking that brought us here; addressing the symptoms rather than the causes.
Let me illustrate this with an analogy.
Suppose you found a bag of money or won the lottery. What would you do? A prudent and wise person would invest the money and set his lifestyle to meet the income from his investments. Sure, he might spend some to enhance his current lifestyle, but only a fool would squander it like there was no tomorrow and that the money would never end.
The fool would spend it maintaining an unsustainable lifestyle until he was down to a few bucks, then spend the few remaining dollars either on more lottery tickets or some pie-in-the-sky investment, hoping for a quick return or another windfall.
Rather than realize his lifestyle was unsustainable, he instead tries to find ways to continue it, robbing Peter to pay Paul, loans, robbery, etc.
Quote:
Expecting some other energy resource to provide energy on the same scale and level of concentration as petroleum, just because we happen to want one, is a little like responding to one huge lottery win by assuming that when that money starts running out, another equally large win can be had for the cost of a few more tickets. This is close enough to today’s consumer psychology that it’s easy to imagine somebody in this position pouring all the money he has left into lottery tickets, and throwing away his chances of avoiding bankruptcy because the only solution he can imagine is winning the lottery again.
A prudent society would have invested in renewable sustainable systems long ago.
So, here we are in overshoot. We are living beyond our means. We spent our “bag of money” on toys and a phantom lifestyle that we don’t want to give up. We are insistent that giving up our toys, our lifestyle and our huge family is not an option. We won’t cut up the credit cards, nor powerdown our lifestyle, and we don't want to go back to work.
We want a fix. We want something that keeps this phantom going...at all costs.
We foolishly believe that renewables will allow us to do so, while ignoring the writing on the wall from deforestation, loss of biodiversity, fisheries collapse, and global climate change.
Not to mention, that the investment in renewables is pennies compared to our current outlays and projected increases in demand.
We also seem to ignore the fact that peak oil is a global problem. Who brings solar to Darfur?
We don’t want to submit to nature’s population correction. We wish to avoid that.
We are dreaming.
At the same time, we are suggesting making matters worse with talk of electric cars and other techno-fixes to perpetuate an unsustainable lifestyle…a pure construct of overshoot via fossil fuels.
We want to focus on short-term, short-sighted, selfish technofix solutions that allows us, (those living right now) to avoid "unpleasant" changes, with no lasting solutions for those generations to follow.
We return to the” takeover method” by appropriating more of the primary production of earth (through biofools) to human needs at the continued expense of biodiversity. We increase the “drawdown method” by going after the remaining hydrocarbons, such as shale, tar sands, and heavy oil. Global warming be damned.
As William Catton has so eloquently noted in his book, Overshoot: The Basis for Revolutionary Change.
Quote:
"Whichever of the two historic approaches we take, either choosing to accelerate drawdown or indulging in additional takeover, our new ecological paradigm enables us to see that eventually we will end up shifting back to the other. Either traditional way, if prolonged, leads to an inhuman future ... not toward the lasting solution of temporarily vexing problems ... For any lasting solution, we must abandon both of these ultimately disastrous methods. Drawdown bails us out of present difficulties by shortening our future. Takeover was of lasting value earlier in human history, but that time is past.
"We must learn to live within carrying capacity without trying to enlarge it. We must rely on renewable resources consumed no faster than at sustained yield rates. The last best hope for mankind is ecological modesty."
We don’t seem to grasp that any measures to avoid a die-off or postpone it, make the die-off that much worse and make it that much harder to reduce the population to a sustainable level by choice.
Thus, we choose short-term prosperity over a lasting preparation for the future, while denying the reality of overshoot and the coming population correction.
We just don't want to hear that "doomer" negativity, no matter how rooted in solid biological science and history.
We choose to be selfish, rather than learn to share.
Peak oil will force people to view the world differently, to a degree almost unimaginable to those who scarcely understand the concept just now.
Garrett Hardin wrote:
With the coinage of 'sustainable development,' the defenders of the unsteady state have won a few more years' moratorium from the painful process of thinking.
What ever happened to critical thinking?
Get very prepared for a war footing. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:07 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Jun 12, 2005 Posts: 4189 Location: 1st territorial capitol of AZ
Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 8:35 pm Post subject: Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality
Genius as always Monte.
I know I am as guity as anyone - looking back over my life, even though my earnings have been below average, if I'd managed what I had carefully, just rationally, I'd be rather wealthy now. But did I do that? No, I've acted like some ape who expects everything to grow on trees. As Ran Prieur says in his essay on dropping out, we have millions of years of evolution behind us as animals who had everything they needed grow from trees - it's nowadays that people have to learn to work with money. Most of us are better off on a "short leash" where we can't get into trouble, but the oil party has been the opposite of that.
Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 8:56 pm Post subject: Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality
"It seems that Peak Oil escapes most people's comprehension. Either it is too technical or too much like a conspiracy theory in their minds. The "that can't be true" reflex is very strong, especially among the "educated", who consider themselves too smart to have missed something that big, too important to be upstaged by amateurs, too intellectual and noble to delve into such distasteful topics, too abstract and sensitive to bother with concrete things like numbers, oil, technical stuff, etc"
Joe Gathman at ERT _________________ 500 MPH into a brick wall - me
Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 9:03 pm Post subject: Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality
Roccland wrote:
"It seems that Peak Oil escapes most people's comprehension. The "that can't be true" reflex is very strong, especially among the "educated", who consider themselves too smart to have missed something that big . . ."
Joe Gathman at ERT
man oh man did he hit the nail on the head there. You've got yuppies running around who think because they're making $120,000 a year that they've got the world figured out and there's no way this "peak oil" thing is gonna 'eff up their investments and lifestyle. _________________ http://www.peakoil.org
Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 9:31 pm Post subject: Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality
MonteQuest wrote:
We choose to be selfish, rather than learn to share.
...
Get very prepared for a war footing.
All completely true.
Ironic, is it not, that the upcoming troubles could have been avoided had people listened. They still stop their ears, close their eyes, and thus guarantee disaster. _________________ Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn!
Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 10:00 pm Post subject: Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality
MonteQuest wrote:
What ever happened to critical thinking?
All the people who can do it are out making sure that none of your speculation/assumptions/implications will ever happen?
Not to be mean or anything, but anyone capable of stuff worth being paid for nowadays is out doing it, particularly in the energy generation / energy conservation end of things.
Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 10:33 pm Post subject: Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality
Rationality isn't the reason most people do things. They just do what their neighbors do. If their neighbors go out and get a new car, they do too. Humans aren't that smart. We just think we are. The herd has been on this fossil fuel kick for quite a while now. They won't like what follows in a few years. Most people can't afford to drive around in the cars they are in now. They can't afford the light bill. They need to start conserving, but have no idea what to do. Here's what we have done:
Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 10:35 pm Post subject: Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality
How much can you blame people for not knowing themselves that are being taken advantage of by way of a collectivist influence originating from those who do understand human nature? Do you think the sheep are being led to slaughter unintentionally, that this really could have been avoided? I'm not so sure myself. I'm also not so sure that this is entirely rooted in incompetance and greed. In any case, at this point, can any one person or small group of individuals make much of a difference for the direction of where things are headed? I don't think so. _________________ Just look at us. Everything is backwards; everything is upside down. Doctors destory health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, governments destroy freedom, the major media destroy information and religions destroy spirituality.
Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:08 pm Post subject: Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality
Thank God I learned of peak oil when I did; waiting more than a few years would have been torture.
I share Monte’s big picture view of what we’ve done but I think I’ve carried it just a bit further. It’s not just that peak oil is a symptom; most of us here understand that, but a symptom of what? Uncritical thinking? Hubirs? All that of course, but there’s more.
We have come as far as we can dependant on our own mind. Even the techies know that so they propose bonding with silicone. But that’s not the way things will work out. We will bond of course; it’s the only way we’ll survive. How long it takes us to figure it out will determine how many of us are left.
Based on history, I’m betting about half a billion. _________________ Who is John Galt?
Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:47 pm Post subject: Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality
Excellent point mmasters. TPTB were never interested in sustainability because it denies their foundation. Another realization I mentioned before is that everyone including TPTB do not have free will, neither individually or collectively. Their culture prevents a humanistic policy towards the common man.
I'm sure the average person if given a different history with opportunity for sustainable living, would all choose it over what we have today. If it meant sacrificing the cultural achievements of the past 50 years, which in humble and honest opinion is the pinnacle of all of western history, I wouldn't have wanted it any other way. Its a selfish thought, but at the same time I'm fully aware I'm very much susceptible to the die-off. We were born into this society and instead of fighting fate, its healthier to find the beauty it created, even with the little time left of civilization.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2105 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:58 pm Post subject: Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality
Jack wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
We choose to be selfish, rather than learn to share.
...
Get very prepared for a war footing.
All completely true.
Ironic, is it not, that the upcoming troubles could have been avoided had people listened. They still stop their ears, close their eyes, and thus guarantee disaster.
Listen to what? More nationalist and ethnophobic rhetoric......on an interdependent planet with finite resources and a clear preference for community living based on needs rather than wants.
How the farking heck are you going to reinvent a globe in the thrall of total and utter unreason, religious dogma, cultural arrogance, and historical ignorance.
In a nutshell what we have is a ship of fools heading for the rocks _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: May 06, 2006 Posts: 873 Location: Tustin, CA
Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2007 12:31 am Post subject: Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality
MonteQuest, you're the one person who's posts I always read because I find I have to agree with your analysis 100%.
But you know what? There's a part of me that welcomes Peak Oil. I hate my Job. I always wanted to be a Farmer. Now I will be! _________________ Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
Last edited by SILENTTODD on Mon Jul 23, 2007 1:59 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Feb 16, 2005 Posts: 251 Location: Siberia of Canada
Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2007 1:07 am Post subject: Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality
MonteQuest wrote:
Let me illustrate this with an analogy. Suppose you found a bag of money or won the lottery.
Monte, I believe, your analogy is wrong. Oil is not a lucky lottery ticket. It did not fall on us from the sky. Oil was known to man and used by man thousands of years ago. However the present-day large scale use of oil became possible only due to the scientific and technological advances of the 18th and, especially, 19th century.
Also, can you imagine large scale use of oil if the population of Earth is small (say, a few millions) or if people live in separate tribes or states not connected tightly by trade? I cannot. Our civilization did not find a better source of energy than oil. Was it due to the fact that oil is THE BEST or due to the fact that our capabilities (as humans) to research new sources of energy are limited? I think the latter is true. If we were smarter, we would already be using nuclear energy instead of gasoline and nuclear reactors instead of internal combustion engines or something else.
Our science and the system of generating new knowledge is in a horrible crisis. The labor productivity of scientific workers is very low now and so are the salaries (compared to the effort required to be spent studying to qualify for scientific jobs). Smart kids study many-many years only to find out that they do not get decent jobs after graduation. In the US, only 8% of PhD graduates become tenure-track professors and most of those that do do not generate much useful stuff, i.e., what other people are willing to pay for. Go to any advanced technical class at a US or Canadian university. Most students and often even the instructor are East Indians paid by American taxpayers to go back to India later and do mostly quite simple stuff at a relatively small salary. The end result has even been quantified and plotted by Jonathan Huebner: http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/starkey/201-590_bulletinboard/Huebner.pdf . Our rate of innovation now is the same as in 1600AD and maybe even lower. We as humans were not aware of the peak science 150 years ago and that the Peak Oil and related challenges are coming now with a 150 year long lag.
MonteQuest wrote:
What would you do? A prudent and wise person would invest the money and set his lifestyle to meet the income from his investments. Sure, he might spend some to enhance his current lifestyle, but only a fool would squander it like there was no tomorrow and that the money would never end.
An individual person can behave wisely in this respect. But, unfortunately, the laws governing the behavior of human societies are not much different from the laws underlying development of a microbal culture on a Petri dish. I mean the laws of kinetics. We will feel the presence of a nutrient in our environment, spawn like crazy, eat all the nutrients in no time, and then die-off. Go tell microbes not to spawn and not to eat the nutrient so avidly. _________________ We do not inherit the Earth from our parents, but borrow it from our children - Antoine Saint Exupery
Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2007 5:27 am Post subject: Re: Prosperity over Preparation and the Denial of Reality
jupiters_release wrote:
Excellent point mmasters. TPTB were never interested in sustainability because it denies their foundation. Another realization I mentioned before is that everyone including TPTB do not have free will, neither individually or collectively. Their culture prevents a humanistic policy towards the common man.
I'm sure the average person if given a different history with opportunity for sustainable living, would all choose it over what we have today. If it meant sacrificing the cultural achievements of the past 50 years, which in humble and honest opinion is the pinnacle of all of western history, I wouldn't have wanted it any other way. Its a selfish thought, but at the same time I'm fully aware I'm very much susceptible to the die-off. We were born into this society and instead of fighting fate, its healthier to find the beauty it created, even with the little time left of civilization.
I see the beauty, and I like riding around in a car. I also know that it won't last. We are going to have to change or die. Adapt or perish. Now is the time to make the changes you need to in order to survive. You can get a great bug out spot together someplace now. Visit a place a hundred miles from where you are now. Get to know it. You may have to live there.
There is an alternative. We use half the fossil fuel we did 5 years ago. We save $2655 every year. We could use even less. We live the same lifestyle we did, with half the energy.
If the export land model is right, we'll be down to less than half of what we use now in about 12 and a half years. Everybody else will have to join us, but we are already there. There is a huge unexploited resource out there. It comes up every morning. 100 watts per square meter. All you have to do is put up something to catch it. Trees do it. Check out our solar car. It weighs half the weight of a golf cart. With full panels it can make all it's own energy. It goes 25 mph and gets infinity miles per gallon:
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