Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 7:24 am Post subject: Record ice loss in Arctic
September is normally the month the Arctic ice reaches its furthest retreat. To make this more dramatic I'm going to show you an image of the ice from last year (July 31, 2006). These images are from this site:link Darker blue indicates more solid ice, red is almost gone.
Well it appears this year is well on its way to possibly seeing a record loss of ice in the arctic. Just the past couple of weeks the ice has retreated a frightening amount. Specifically note the western front of the ice between Alaska and Siberia - it appears to be disintegrating. So this year is definitely a continuation of the trend. For whatever reason the arctic is warming fast. Image below is from today (July 28, 2007):
Keep in mind that last years ice extent was already very low, especially compared to decades past. The ice will continue to melt quickly for another month or so, so this is worth keeping an eye on.
Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4168 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 8:39 am Post subject: Re: Possible record ice loss in Arctic
Eric-
If you noticed that last week, very high temps were reaching pretty far up into Canada. The same temps that brought 110F heat to Montana. I noticed the south shores of Hudson Bay were in the 90's. I wonder if this will modify cross polar flow out of Siberia, when it starts to make its way down towards the lower 48...if that even happens this winter? You also got to wonder if this increases or decreases snowfall in downwind areas, a lake effect of sorts? An interesting winter ahead, for sure. _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 953 Location: "Mad as Hell !"
Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 8:57 am Post subject: Re: Possible record ice loss in Arctic
Yes, Senator Inhofe, within the next few years it looks like we're going to have to subsidies polar bears in order for them to get row boats to go seal hunting in. _________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 9:16 am Post subject: Re: Possible record ice loss in Arctic
Some have suggested that this is due to a data processing change, but that is not likely given that there has been no announcment and you can find the same results at seaice.dk (look at amsr-comb). But there is going to be a negative feedback on this ice loss: if there is a lot of open sea surface in early winter then there is going to be significantly more cooling of the water. This will enable the ice to last longer in the following year(s). But inevitably, the large atmospheric warming trend in the polar region will overcome this negative feedback.
Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 9:33 am Post subject: Re: Possible record ice loss in Arctic
frankthetank wrote:
Eric-
If you noticed that last week, very high temps were reaching pretty far up into Canada. The same temps that brought 110F heat to Montana. I noticed the south shores of Hudson Bay were in the 90's. I wonder if this will modify cross polar flow out of Siberia, when it starts to make its way down towards the lower 48...if that even happens this winter? You also got to wonder if this increases or decreases snowfall in downwind areas, a lake effect of sorts? An interesting winter ahead, for sure.
I really don't know. The ice will definitely recoup this winter, though the average extent is declining. It seems to me the weather has become increasingly erratic though it's really hard to say as it's chaotic by nature.
Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 9:37 am Post subject: Re: Possible record ice loss in Arctic
dissident wrote:
Some have suggested that this is due to a data processing change, but that is not likely given that there has been no announcment and you can find the same results at seaice.dk (look at amsr-comb). But there is going to be a negative feedback on this ice loss: if there is a lot of open sea surface in early winter then there is going to be significantly more cooling of the water. This will enable the ice to last longer in the following year(s). But inevitably, the large atmospheric warming trend in the polar region will overcome this negative feedback.
Yes you'd think there would a negative feedback loop as you've mentioned. However I've yet to see it looking at the ice extent over the past 5-6 years. It's been declining, there have been no large scale advancements. My guess would be the oceans are warming - globally, the entire mass, not just the surface waters. So that bit of negative feedback is swamped by this.. the melt continues.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3278 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 12:30 pm Post subject: Re: Possible record ice loss in Arctic
dissident wrote:
Some have suggested that this is due to a data processing change, but that is not likely given that there has been no announcment and you can find the same results at seaice.dk (look at amsr-comb). But there is going to be a negative feedback on this ice loss: if there is a lot of open sea surface in early winter then there is going to be significantly more cooling of the water. This will enable the ice to last longer in the following year(s). But inevitably, the large atmospheric warming trend in the polar region will overcome this negative feedback.
It appears from the data that this does not happen long term because the new ice formed is on top of waters which are absorbing energy during the long polar summer. As a consequence the new ice formed is thin compared to the old ice cover which has dissapeared and melts more quickly in the following summer, which in turn causes more of the old thick ice to be eroded and melt along the edges of the permanent cap.
As the total ammount of open water increases each year the feedback ampliphies until you hit the tipping point and the whole mass become seasonal like the ice cover on Hudson Bay or the Great Lakes/ MacKenzie river watershed lakes.
Also as someone pointed out open water during the early fall/winter promotes 'lake' effect snow as the fresh water on the surface layer evaporates and adds to the humidity ballance. This has the added effect of removing fresher water that freezes more easily from the surface and reinforces the thin cap formation later in the same winter.
The only totally unpredictible factor is, where is the tipping point? Once we cross it the Arctic will be fully navigable for about 4 months per year, which might have a big impact on international shipping and oil exploration in the Arctic basin. _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Joined: Jan 06, 2006 Posts: 508 Location: Pacific Northwest
Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 4:30 pm Post subject: Re: Possible record ice loss in Arctic
I am curious how this will be affecting the Siberian tundra, with less seasonal ice cover and rising overall temperatures that perma frost is unlikely to remain so.
A methane spike could easily amplify, extend and expand warming trends. _________________ We stand here, as the light of other days surrounds us.
"Hail the Dead"
Joined: Apr 19, 2006 Posts: 197 Location: Australia
Posted: Sun Jul 29, 2007 12:30 am Post subject: Heading for a record summer ice melt in the Arctic!
We are currently heading to a new historic minimum ice cover in the arctic region. We are now with 0.5 million sq km less ice cover than last year. The graph looks very worrysome (link).
The main homepage is here. Current ice cover picture is here.
If the trend continues, I think the summer ice will melt completely before 2020, easily, especially considering that the system has a non-linear behaviour. Also interesting is the animation with the last 30 days. It shows how quickly the ice melts during the summer in the arctic region.
But hey, we all know that it is a perfecty natural cycle, right? It is completely normal for the ice cap to go from a steady state cycle into complete melting in summertime in a matter of 50 years... yes it is! _________________ Omnia mutantur, nos et mutamur in illis
Joined: Jan 06, 2006 Posts: 508 Location: Pacific Northwest
Posted: Sun Jul 29, 2007 1:06 am Post subject: Re: Heading for a record summer ice melt in the Arctic!
Damn...and here I am holding '2010' in the office pool. No way is that shrub from accounting getting away with '2009' _________________ We stand here, as the light of other days surrounds us.
"Hail the Dead"
Joined: Apr 19, 2006 Posts: 197 Location: Australia
Posted: Sun Jul 29, 2007 1:39 am Post subject: Re: Heading for a record summer ice melt in the Arctic!
Cobra_Strike wrote:
Damn...and here I am holding '2010' in the office pool. No way is that shrub from accounting getting away with '2009'
This year could be just an anomaly, but if the trend continues next year, then I would say 2012 is a pretty good guess:
Year / Minimum ice cover in million sq. km [difference]
2006 / 4.0
2007 / 3.5 [-0.5]
2008 / 2.9 [-0.6]
2009 / 2.2 [-0.7]
2010 / 1.4 [-0.8]
2011 / 0.5 [-0.9]
2012 / Nil-Nada-Zilch _________________ Omnia mutantur, nos et mutamur in illis
Posted: Sun Jul 29, 2007 4:14 am Post subject: Re: Heading for a record summer ice melt in the Arctic!
Didn't you see the topic I already started on this? No need for two threads on the same topic.. can one of the moderators merge these two?
The thinning ice is dramatic and it's happening much faster than predicted. When I checked the extent of the ice I could hardly believe my eyes, and there's still a month or two to go before the ice reaches its furthest retreat!
Posted: Sun Jul 29, 2007 4:51 am Post subject: Re: Heading for a record summer ice melt in the Arctic!
There is one bright side here.
Once all Arctic ice is molten over one summer, there will be nothing more to melt over next one, and situation will not go worst anymore as long as Arctic is concerned.
Of course we will carry on melting something else, Greenland or Antarctic perhaps.
Greenland 2050.
Last breeding couple of human species
Joined: Apr 19, 2006 Posts: 197 Location: Australia
Posted: Sun Jul 29, 2007 6:39 am Post subject: Re: Heading for a record summer ice melt in the Arctic!
eric_b wrote:
Didn't you see the topic I already started on this? No need for two threads on the same topic.. can one of the moderators merge these two?
The thinning ice is dramatic and it's happening much faster than predicted. When I checked the extent of the ice I could hardly believe my eyes, and there's still a month or two to go before the ice reaches its furthest retreat!
Sorry eric_b, I missed it. Moderators, could you please merge the threads? _________________ Omnia mutantur, nos et mutamur in illis
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1010 Location: Central NC
Posted: Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:00 am Post subject: Re: Heading for a record summer ice melt in the Arctic!
BrazilianPO wrote:
We are currently heading to a new historic minimum ice cover in the arctic region. We are now with 0.5 million sq km less ice cover than last year. The graph looks very worrysome (link).
The main homepage is
But hey, we all know that it is a perfecty natural cycle, right? It is completely normal for the ice cap to go from a steady state cycle into complete melting in summertime in a matter of 50 years... yes it is!
Makes me wonder why the "experts" speak of GW tipping points in the future tense. Somewhere there is tipping point that has gone toes up. IMHO, of course!
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