Hoarding is exactly what the government is doing right now by filling the SPR, and frankly it's the best thing that could happen. It drives prices up. High prices encourage demand destruction. They also finance new well development. The hoarded oil gives us a buffer to fall back on once shortages become more prevalent. High prices are what we need in order to adapt to what's coming, and the sooner they happen, the better.
Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 9:54 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.85)
Ok, so I woke up to another record this morning.
$126.98
The excuse this time was that "Iran said it was studying a plan to cut crude output" or something like that. But like I said, "it would be showing incredible strength, however, if it stays persistently above $120."
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 7:54 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)
Norway Cuts Oil Output Forecast
Total oil production, including natural gas liquids and condensate, is estimated at 2.4 million barrels a day in 2008, down from an October estimate of 2.5 million, the Petroleum and Energy Ministry said today.
``Approximately half of the total expected oil resources have been produced,'' the ministry said. ``The remaining resources are mainly connected to existing fields, or they have yet to be discovered. A strong focus on existing fields and on exploration is crucial to ensure a long-term development on the Norwegian continental shelf.''
The ministry today said that investments in the petroleum industry, including exploration, will probably rise 10 percent to 125 billion kroner ($24.7 billion) this year, up from an earlier guidance of 120 billion.
Oil Price
Norway expects to get an average 500 kroner ($99) a barrel for its crude oil this year and an average 400 kroner ($79) a barrel next year, the ministry said.
``The weakening of the U.S. economy contributes to a reduction in demand for oil,'' the Norwegian ministry said today. ``On the other hand there is little spare capacity and uncertainty linked to the supply of oil from several countries.''
Joined: Apr 08, 2007 Posts: 437 Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 11:17 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)
WTF? CNBC's ticker is showing prices nearly $2 lower than my sources on the internets.
I know there's a lag but damn. Showing $125.75 above while CNBC is showing $123.90.
That's a hell of a difference and if that's the difference between the current posted price on CNBC and the delayed price on the Internets, then that's one hell of a dump in the space of 15 minutes.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1567 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 11:30 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)
It's down to $122.90 now. The price has dropped about $3.00 in less than an hour. Did the Saudis announce they're opening up the spigots and going to pump 15mb/d of light sweet from now on?
Actually, I think this is a "technicals" driven plunge. The market failed to top the last high of $126.98 and speculators started selling off. Buyers will come in by the time it gets down to $115 and send it back up again. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Apr 08, 2007 Posts: 437 Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 11:34 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)
joewp wrote:
It's down to $122.90 now. The price has dropped about $3.00 in less than an hour. Did the Saudis announce they're opening up the spigots and going to pump 15mb/d of light sweet from now on?
Actually, I think this is a "technicals" driven plunge. The market failed to top the last high of $126.98 and speculators started selling off. Buyers will come in by the time it gets down to $115 and send it back up again.
As I completed my previous post and got back to observing, it has become clear that you're probably spot on with your analysis. Seems the failure to reach the previous record has sparked our next bottom-searching sell-off. You say $115. I'm placing my chips on $120.
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 11:50 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)
The 'resident is on a saber rattling tour of the Middle East right now, bullying Iran to appease the hard core nut cases in Israel. That accounts for a risk premium of at least 20.00. Bush isn't going to get really serious with Saudi Arabia about opening spigots, if he's serious about bombing Iran, as he'll want Americans to be in--bomb the ass off a fruitfly--mode, before Autumn. Joe Idiotstick will hate anything even remotely Middle Eastern by the time they're ready to bomb Iran.
This isn't entirely an Opec situation. It's joint yankee/Saudi operation, coupled with depletion problems. Remove the froth of a maniacal mismanaged govt and their manipulations, and the ensuing speculation, and prices would be back down around 80.00 in today's dollars.
Joined: Aug 14, 2005 Posts: 766 Location: Dead civilization walking
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 11:59 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)
The June contract plunged to 121.51 in a matter of mintues. This reminds me of the price action back in mid March when we had that 7 dollar movement within a single trading day. Glad I was only long one emini.
Mind you, see what happened in the few days following that mid March sell off.
Joined: Aug 14, 2005 Posts: 766 Location: Dead civilization walking
Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 12:55 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($126.98)
^ WTF?? The US dollar is weaker today and at any rate, oil and the buck rose together last week. I call BS on that story.
As for contract expiry, quite a few times when we've hit contract expiry the price in the last several months, crude has shot through the roof as supplies at Cushing fell short.
Methinks Vic Niederhoffer was right when he opined that the financial media just pull any old story that is remotely plausible out of their asses and toss it out to the public.
The entire commodity complex sold off today at about the same time and is now recovering with the metals and wheat being in positive territory. I think it might be a little bit of "sell in May and go away" kicking in.
"May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Intercontinental Exchange Inc., the owner of Europe's largest energy market, said trading on its ICE Futures exchanges stopped today because of a power outage.
``We had an emergency power outage at our main technical facility in Chicago,'' spokeswoman Kelly Loeffler said. ``We hope to have the markets back up in the next hour.''
Unexecuted active over-the-counter and options orders ``have been held,'' the exchange said in a release on its Web site. Unexecuted active futures orders have been canceled.
``I think you saw a panic and a lot of people with exposure on ICE would have flocked to the Nymex to cover their exposure,'' said Stephen Schork, principal of the trading firm The Schork Group, Inc. ``Lets chalk one up for open outcry because this is a catastrophe.''"
_________________ "For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." --Patrick Henry
Ok I just got a chance to look at what oil has been doing today. I see that there has been a massive pipeline explosion...Why hasn't NYMEX moved to $130 on this news?
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