We cannot drill our way out of this oil crisis. Since 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.
Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.
We are going to have to import more of our oil. Period.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2532 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg
Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 6:12 pm Post subject: Re: Is it possible to live without a car?
The tiny rural town where I grew up had only one gas station, which closed in the late 80s because the owner refused to upgrade to DEQ standards; so everyone had to drive 9 miles to get gas at a keylock station (on the sly, since Oregon law forbids you from pumping your own gas). Farming was entirely dependent on gas top to bottom, combines, trucks for hauling grain, pickups to get around in. No one was about to switch back to teams of oxen - where the hell do you get an ox? If someone had one it would take years to breed a team of them. Horses were around though. But where do you get all the saddlerly, yokes, etc? This takes a bit of doing. My town used to be on a branch line of the railroad but that was shut down years ago, and now is dependent on trucking for goods. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
Rug-peers did not do this.
"We can find a needle in a haystack, but it is still a needle." - Colin Campbell on oil exploration.
Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 8:38 pm Post subject: Re: Is it possible to live without a car?
I think we'll all find out whether it's possible to live without a car. I think that the average person will not have a car, or if they do they won't be able to afford to drive it within 5 years. If Mexico's oil production falls off a cliff, and Venezuela's oil gets sold to China we are going to be down by 2-4 million barrels per day very soon. We'll all get into a third world way of life. We'll ride a scooter around and use trucks only when we're hauling things around. The age of driving around in huge pickups to get a jug of milk and a movie are going to be over. Fugeddaboudit.
We may be able to get around in something like this:
Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 3:15 am Post subject: Re: Is it possible to live without a car?
A common solution in many rural areas in Sweden some decades ago (when there still were quite a number of car-less household) were grocery stores or butchers in vans. The vans had regular routes, and once a week it stopped close to your home. You could call the day before if you wanted something extra, and the grocer or meat-man would bring it.
I think we must distinguish between cars for personal individual transport of healthy people (=cars in the usual sense), and cars/trucks for transport of goods, fire fighting, and ambulances, etc. In a well-organised society, I am sure the first type is dispensable without loss of quality of life. (Unless your biggest enjoyment of life is car-driving of course - I have met such people)
Also the transport of goods certainly can be reduced - for example dairies used to be small and local, and the milk did not travel far from the farmer to the dairie and then back to local consumers. Now everything is centralised and I think there are only a couple of dairies left in all of Sweden. Similar with meat and eggs.
Schools used to be small and local - then they were centralised, especially at the secondary school level due to the need for specialised teaching so rural teens must make long daily commutes in school buses - today, with the internet it is entirely possible give specialized, advanced education at a distance, even overseas.
I think all of us can give additional examples where travel/transport can be reduced without quality losses.
Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 9:19 am Post subject: Re: Is it possible to live without a car?
smallpoxgirl said
"Of course it's possible, but there are big trade offs.
You could:
1. Live in some urban hell hole and pretend that an armada of 18 wheelers aren't bringing you every conceivable necessity of life. The reality is that living at 300,000 times the population density the land can support and pretending its not a problem because somebody else is doing all the driving to bring you the things you need, that's just unrealistic.
2. You could live in a rural area, but you'd have to be willing to accept the standard of living that the land can provide. If you're happy making $5000 per year, you could probably make that in most rural areas off biking around doing odd jobs."
First off smallpox, sweet cow,
second I agree there would have to be some trade offs. As gas prices go up fewer will be able to get gas and will have to live close to jobs, this will reduce the radius of ones job search right? and even career options too right? Which means less income.
And food prices of shipped-in goods will go up and some foods will be totally unavailable, not just coconuts and winter strawberries but everything.
If it is a long slow decline, the rich will be insulated but we all will be paying more for less, on everything; healthcare products are all from or packaged in, oil products so even that will decline in quality and/or availability. Cars transport all of these things as well and that transport across thousands of miles will compound the cost and reduce the availability even more.
SO HUGE decrease quality of life for city dwellers, in the country even fewer jobs than in the city, and even fewer items shipped in...
Unless we build thousands of nuke plants and charge up our battery powered cars and trucks and tractors - like on Buck Rogers!
That would rock, and then we would finally have flying cars too. SO I guess this peak oil thing is a win win!
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 351 Location: Windy City No Longer
Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 10:03 am Post subject: Re: Is it possible to live without a car?
shabbadoo wrote:
SO HUGE decrease quality of life for city dwellers, in the country even fewer jobs than in the city, and even fewer items shipped in...
Unless we build thousands of nuke plants and charge up our battery powered cars and trucks and tractors - like on Buck Rogers!
That would rock, and then we would finally have flying cars too. SO I guess this peak oil thing is a win win!
Cool. Then I could just fly to work with my Mr. Fusion powered rocket backpack! Sadly, I'm more likely to ride my bike to work until armed bandits take it.
I thought about the "fewer items shipped in" scenario. It is a concern. I think there will be a profit opportunity for small town "Freight consolidators" wherein you take everyone's order for stuff from Amazon, eBay, and larger business-type shipments and arrange for trucking from the railhead or nearest large city. _________________ TANSTAAFL
Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 8:32 am Post subject: Re: Is it possible to live without a car?
armed bandits...
This OF COURSE makes me think Mad Max. I wish I had a car that was super efficient when I wanted but could drop a "blower" on the block and make it super fast when I wanted. And a rocket pack.
But seriously, the problem of not having cars isn't a big personal issue but a hit to shipping: food, medicine and products. This wont hit individuals as hard as institutions (hospitals and police and job producing companies) that is the REAL rub. People can adapt faster.
But the big animals die off too when food/water runs low... they just stomp the smaller competition first. So when the police start fighting to keep their cars; that will be a great indicator of TSHTF I think. Which reminds me that Mad Max was originally a cop with a car...FULL CIRCLE BABY
Arlington city, Texas with only 1.99% of trips non car based.
I would say its either a small city or such a badly run place that the metro government of Arlington city, Texas just doesnt care about mass transport.
does anyone on here come from Arlington city, Texas who might have an insight as to why the mass transport is so bad.
Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 7:10 pm Post subject: Re: Is it possible to live without a car?
Well I managed to get around without a car yesterday, and we used no fossil fuel at all the whole day. It was a beautiful day and we biked and skateboarded to school. I teach at the same high school our kid goes to. I am trying to get the other kids into carbon free transportation, so I buy them breakfast if they get to the breakfast place on the way before 7am on Thursdays. Last spring a few took me up on it. This fall too.
So I guess I'd have to say that It is possible for us to live without a car, on the sunny days especially.
Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 8:26 pm Post subject: Re: Is it possible to live without a car?
I live in the suburbs of Toronto, and I was surprised last week at church to meet a couple who do not have a car, not even a single car. They just bought a town house which is a 7 minute walk from the suburban rail ("GO") station, and it turned out that to afford the place, they could not also afford cars. So, its not like they voluntarily dropped car ownership from their lifestyle. But, they are happy now with their choice. It costs the two of them over $425 per months for commuting to Toronto, that is a combined GO and Mississauga pass. But, compare that to car ownership costs. They get around by walking, biking and when it comes to shopping, they use the city bus, which is a 20 minute ride to a huge shopping centre. There is a nuisance of bringing the groceries they said, but on the other hand, they find that it takes about the same time to get to the store by bus, as they don't have to hunt for parking spots.
One thing the guy said is that he feels less tense going to work now, because of traffic hassles when he drove and now he can nap instead.
Looking down the road, they have isolated themselves from the worst ravages of peak oil on their budget.
Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 9:31 pm Post subject: Re: Is it possible to live without a car?
gwmss15 wrote:
does anyone on here come from Arlington city, Texas who might have an insight as to why the mass transport is so bad.
Well, for one, it's DFW's largest suburb (350,000 pop.), and almost certainly has never considered itself a real "city," needing truly urban features like mass transit. It was home to a mere 7,000 people as recently as 1957, so it's not surprising that there is no nucleus of established urban blocks that facilitate the type of development that is conducive to transit.
Here's what I could find:
Quote:
"Arlington residents have voted down a public bus system three times in the last 27 years, worried about big buses lumbering down their quiet suburban streets, as well as the cost of a service that many believe would benefit only a few. But advocates say the city's growing population, coupled with the pain of higher gasoline prices, make buses an easier sell now."
"Today, more than half of Arlington workers commute to jobs outside the city, according to city data. When the United Way polled community leaders in 2005 asking them to name the city's greatest needs, public transportation topped the list."
Planetizen article (WSJ source) _________________ “I'm completely in favor of the separation of Church and State. My idea is that these two institutions screw us up enough on their own, so both of them together is certain death.” George Carlin
Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2007 2:58 pm Post subject: Re: Is it possible to live without a car?
"Is it possible to live without a car?"
I do not own a car, I either commute by bus or car pool to work. In the summer, it is possible to bike (30 km total distance) but it is too dangerous in the winter. About half of the workforce in the group I work in do car pooling.
My analysis
Advantages of not having a car:
+ Car ownership in Sweden can be very expensive, saving that money is a great advantage. I usually save more than 60 % of my net income every month, that would not be possible if I had a car.
+ No worries about theft and finding parking place
+ Do not harm the environment that much
+ Possibly more healthy when you have to bike or walk.
Disadvantages of not having a car:
- Freedom of movement is severly impacted. In rural Sweden, there are buses going but nowhere as frequently as in bigger cities. If you miss the bus, you will have to wait for another 30 minutes or so.
- I am currently single, but I suspect that the average prospective girlfriend do not want to bike, to commute or do a lot of planning due to the abscence of the car.
- My driving skills and sense of traffic rhythm are deteriorating when not driving a car for a more than a few times a year: like other skills when not using them.
- Many think it is a little bit odd when you do not own a car. In our western culture, it seems that the car is more than just a mean of transportation, it is like something that impersonates the very essence of someone.
So, there are a lot of drawbacks of not owning a car. But I have tried to plan a bit and therefore located myself so that everything is within a radius of 16 km, my workplace being the most remote place. Daily shopping is a 2 minute walk away.
Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2007 5:26 pm Post subject: Re: Is it possible to live without a car?
Vortex wrote:
- I am currently single, but I suspect that the average prospective girlfriend do not want to bike, to commute or do a lot of planning due to the abscence of the car.
Well, hold on to your standards, you'll find the right girl. And think down the road, how fit you'll both be in your late 40's!
In an Aug. 15 appearance on PBS's "NewsHour With Jim Lehrer," Peters spoke against a proposal to raise gas taxes to shore up the nation's aging infrastructure. The real problem, the secretary argued, is that only 60 percent of the current money raised by gas taxes goes to highways and bridges.
Quote:
"There are museums that are being built with that money, bike paths, trails, repairing lighthouses. Those are some of the kind of things that that money is being spent on, as opposed to our infrastructure," she said. The secretary added that projects like bike paths and trails "are really not transportation."
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