Moving from planning phase to action is a BIG step. Even though I'm sold on lifestyle change now, I still poke around the news sites daily. Yep, action is tough.
Personally, after a 4 year vacation, I made it to action phase pretty quick for peak oil. I learned some good lessons in '98-'98 getting ready for the millenium bug . Just because Y2K didnt happen doesnt mean the vulnerabilities went away. Boiled frog, cold turkey, buffalo stampeding for the cliff, deer in the headlights....
This time my oldest son helps :D I've told him he'll prolly never get to drive a car haha
Without doing anything at all, my family is fairly well prepared for a depression or worse. However, there's still a lot to do!
We live in very rural (4th largest county in state and 0 stoplights in whole county hehe) northern Great Lakes region. Heaven on earth.
But, I live in a house in town (8k people) with NG furnace and city utilities. BAD IDEA. Im moving to the woods.
By fall I intend on having 10 years worth of firewood (trucks and chainsaws make this easy). Im sawing lumber for a house and hopefully will get a masonry heater built this summer. Plus a wind/solar/bike powered water-well with storage tanks. Luckily, my father is really positive about preparing for hard times. And being a log home builder is a bonus .
Just as important is food. Food for us is from 4 sources:
1. woods.
venison, fish, birds, mushrooms, berries, syrup, etc. whatever we can collect for free. Low population per square mile allows this to be sustainable (we shoot poachers not people ) Thoreau said he got more of his food from the local swamp than the local village gardens. I hope so.
2. garden.
solar greenhouse, orchard, perennials, cultivated biointensive garden, chickens, a pig, etc. Still have a ton to do here, and sadly im no greenthumb. This is one area of many areas for me where time spent now is invaluable.
3. community bartering.
community ties are the key to security in every way. This is one of the biggest realizations Ive had while preparing for peak oil. Strong community = strong security. There is no substitute. Most of my community will eventually be about a 30 mile radius. My community starts in my house and moves outward to my neighbors, to my township, and to the county. I need to build personal relationships with a lot of the locals which I just "know". Need to become "friends" with as many of them as I can.
4. storage.
Nothing for over 1 year except bulk wheat and corn. Have a good 6 month food supply. Working up to a one year family food storage system asap. Hoping to build an icehouse. Will can as long as we can ^^
Another action I've begun recently is personal and family health. Ive realized I need to be physically fit. 150 years ago manpower and animal power did most of the work. Ive grown up with oil doing all the work. Health is 4 areas for me.
1. diet. With the support of my family we've done major work here. Drinking mostly water now. Some juice. Kids drink water with some juice and milk. Primarily eat fresh veggies and fresh fruit. Some venison and fish. We've kept our home grinder running off and on since 99, used about 2- 5 gallon pails of y2k wheat lol. rice beans honey pasta olive oil applesauce yogurt lemon garlic rhubarb . little to no fast food, sugary drinks, processed food.
2. exercise. bleh, Im in poor shape since the Marines. Im skinny and prolly couldnt run 3 miles. Havent taken much action here yet except hiking and bike riding. Been thinkin about getting a weight set.
3. Breathing. been reading health books and they all say breathing is important so hey, Im practicing some meditation and breath exercises. Makes me wish there was a good aikido sensei around these woods.
4. herbal medicine. Ive been researching how to strengthen the immune system with natural medicines. I was all in to colloidal silver in 99 so I have all that stuff. Have been reading about echinacea, goldenseal, and other herbal medicines I can grow locally. Just have to get into gardening I guess...or build a water distiller. Yeah that sounds more fun lol.
Probably the most profound action Ive taken for peak oil, or instant ice age, or comet strike or whatever is spiritually. Ive started reading the bible for first time in 20 years. Ive planned fasting to help my ability to control desires of the flesh. And lemme tell ya, I have a lot of em lol. Anyways, nourishing my spirit has been a great plus. I feel good. The changes in the relationships with my wife, sons, dad, employees have all been positive (even if some of em roll their eyes about peak oil hehe). My brother told me recently that "leadership starts in your family".
One of the big reasons for all this spirituality is from my readings on sustainability and anthropology. God and nature are SO >>> than man.
If Im lucky enough to survive for 70 more years, I want my family and community to rebuild a better way. Fark capitalism/totalitarian agriculture. It's way overrated.
My first action was an msword file called "action 2004". It is a huge outline/mind map about the actions I need to take. It was an easy transition from the intense reading/planning stage to actually see what I needed to do. What I could start on immediately and what needed further development. Things have progressed nicely since then.
Im also buying a lot of books and random other things from ebay mostly. And downloading/printing info. The vast amount of knowledge about highly advanced, though "obsolete" skills (blacksmithing, horses, hand tools, natural medicine) is more valuable than gold (which is saying a lot ). If you cant do anything else, expand your library!
I've been in action phase for a little over a month. Pile on this the need to make money while economy is chugging and I need more hours in the day (less sleep).
Posted: Tue May 18, 2004 10:29 pm Post subject: Wow
MadScientist seems to have this in hand. I'll drop by after civilization collapses... I'll be the one trampled in the mud by the starving masses, my face pressed up against your electric fence pleading for moldy crust.
He has a serious point though... Just knowing that oil peak could be eminent, is not preparation, it's only information. By the time wide-spread economic disruptions have emerged, it will be more difficult to acquire the means to make the changes necessary. For some time MS's preparations will amount to a better than average lifestyle, but will eventually become the standard if we are faced with any serious economic depression. The millions world-wide who are not capable of making this transition create the most potent challenge I would think. While some suggest that the third world will be less affected by economic disruption, I contend that the fragile economies of the developing world are particularly vulnerable.
With crime already significant, it's not hard to imagine that during trying economic times, keeping what you have, may prove more difficult than obtaining it. _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Joined: May 15, 2004 Posts: 253 Location: Southeast USA
Posted: Wed May 19, 2004 7:09 am Post subject: I guess I'm fortunate....
I'm pretty fortunate in my life situation I must say. I'm at an age where physical ability, etc. isn't an issue, but my ability to buy the things that I would need are. I've just recently started working on what to do, but I think I'm about set except for emergency supplies. My family lives in the middle of nowhere(nearest town is about 8 miles away, and it only has a pop of -10000). We live within 10 miles of a major river, my family has a good set of tools, bikes, etc. We own plenty of how-to books, and my mom has taught me basic carpentry. We're surrounded by acres of pine forest, so getting wood isn't an issue, and the temp is mild. I don't know how good the soil is, since we've only really been able to grow peppers, tomatoes, and grapes and everything else hasn't done well. I think now that I have that chart from Pops, I make some kind of Word document with my plan. Things seem to be escalating, especially with the ASPO revision that the peak comes in 2008.
Joined: Apr 17, 2004 Posts: 984 Location: Tulsa, Ok
Posted: Wed May 19, 2004 2:12 pm Post subject: prepared
The financial part is what’s difficult for me.
I have been learning to tie knots. I already have a few guns but have gotten prepared to reload. I am working on some food storage for short term. I understand the impertinence of getting viable seeds from each years harvest if one plans to continue growing your own each year. My brother and I are placing a well at mom’s house, adding a few more raised beds.
Money is the biggest issue. Its limited. So I am concentrating on knowledge. What to do and how to do it.
The way I see it I must be prepared on multiple levels. A sudden crash of the economy or a decline the is more gradual.
If is sudden a short term supply of food is what I plan to get me through. I have 5 gallon buckets with beans and rice that I used a 2 cubic inch piece of dry ice to drive the air out with. Then sealed them. 2- 50 pound bags to 3- 5 gallon buckets. Also ensureing drinking water. I am using a different approach. I am relying on purification tablets.
Long term slow decline. I will have my current home paid for in about 5 more years. Then I plan to purchase a small piece of land further away from town and build an energy efficient home on it.
Basically in all future decissions. Peak oil and what follows will always be considered.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6375 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Wed May 19, 2004 2:54 pm Post subject:
“Big Trouble Date” was a Popsism, Campbell said:
“The present model departs from earlier ones in recognition that the Middle East no longer has sufficient spare capacity to discharge a swing role. A volatile epoch of recurring price shocks and consequential recessions dampening demand and price is now regarded as more likely, with terminal decline setting in and becoming self-evident by about 2010.”
On the chart I noted above, he speculates non OPEC oil peaked last year, the world will peak next year and begin “terminal decline” in ’08 at 2.4% per year. If demand continues to “want” to grow at 2-3% were talking about a big shortfall and hence some big price hikes and economic troubles.
BTW thanks for the new contributions. Mad Scientist! You are my buddy aren't you?
IMHO, the 3 things we’ll need the most 10-15 years down the road are land, tools and skills. And I also use the "good times, bad times" rule when making decisions: Is this purchase, project, hobby, etc. going to be valuable when things are good, as well as when they are bad? _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Hmm. Good thread. Peak oil is a matter of faith for me. I’m no expert in the scientific aspects of energy. My belief in an impending oil crisis comes from several aspects of my personal life. I won’t list them all off now, but when I take a step back from myself and examine what has happened to me in the past 6 months; it ties amazingly into the idea that peak oil is not Y2K, global warming, or the comet …but the real deal. Having facts to support the case certainly seems to confirm my belief, though it’s not my reason for seeing the need to prepare.
How am I preparing? Good question. First off, I have 3 semesters left at college, the final two of which I am to do a major project. Being a film student, it seems natural to make a film about Peak Oil. With digital technology, I know that there are tons of possibilities to make something good. Distribution is obviously a problem, but if I could just show it to my unconvinced family and friends, it will be worth it. Here’s my premise so far:
Oil war in Iraq rages, military draft gets implemented. Protagonist of the film is a young college student, who is drafted but given deferment to finish the school year. He finds out about “Peak Oil”, and instead of doing his work, drives aimlessly around the New England area, mulling over the end of industrial civilization. I’m going to try to structure the film in away that mimics the bell curve of peak oil, by having the character seem very functioning throughout most of the film (like our society before the crash) only to quickly lose it in the final moments, as the time to report to duty looms closer.
The idea is that I get a chance to read up on the issue, learn about it, and then present what I find to people in a way that doesn’t sound like I’m just another apocalyptic nut. (maybe they will think that anyway but oh well). But what’s most important is that in making this film I can simultaneously prepare (get in the mode) and know I’m doing all I can to help warn others. And if nothing happens, I’ll have a neat film. ;p
As far as more practical stuff well…there are two mountain bikes sitting in my mom’s shed, unused, all they need is some tire work. Also going to try and get my mom to sell her house sooner than later (in suburban Boston, where the market is BOOMING and has been for some time). Hmm. Other than that, I’m going to have some serious planning to do this summer…thankfully I live in an area where people are generally informed about this kinda stuff (comparatively speaking, anyway, some folks here put up a billboard on the interstate for www.itsabouttheoil.com)….hopefully I can connect with some locals and see what they are doing.
I'm not sure what to do. Part of me feels a little silly even thinking about it...like that flea with a "The End of the Dog Is Coming" sign in that Far Side cartoon. And yet...geology and the laws of thermodynamics are hard to argue with.
I had been planning to move home to Hawaii to be with my family after I retire. But I suspect Hawaii will be a very, very bad place to be, should oil prices rise too much. A million people living where a few thousand used to live. Nearly all food and supplies flown or shipped in.
Where I live now isn't great, either. Near a major city, way too crowded. But my office is talking of relocating, and it may be my chance to move somewhere more rural. I've been wanting to do that anyway, just because of the cost of living where I am is so high.
I wonder if I can get my parents to leave Hawaii and move in with me? I kind of doubt it. My mom likes being near her extended family.
Joined: May 21, 2004 Posts: 158 Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posted: Fri May 21, 2004 3:09 pm Post subject:
Leanan wrote:
I had been planning to move home to Hawaii to be with my family after I retire. But I suspect Hawaii will be a very, very bad place to be, should oil prices rise too much. A million people living where a few thousand used to live. Nearly all food and supplies flown or shipped in.
Hawaii is a particularly bad place, as well as the reasons you've mentioned, the bulk of their power is oil-generated.
Hawaii is a particularly bad place, as well as the reasons you've mentioned, the bulk of their power is oil-generated.
Power isn't that critical in Hawaii, though. Not as critical as food, anyway. The climate is temperate enough that you don't have to worry about heating in winter or cooling in summer. (Though of course, that could change.) Most of the islands are so small that transportation wouldn't be too much of an issue, either.
One thing we do have in Hawaii is geothermal. Active volcano, right on the premises. There's also a ocean thermal power plant not far from the home I grew up in. (They generate power from the temperature differential between deep, cold water and the warm surface.) Solar and wind would be naturals for Hawaii. (And we did have a solar water heater when I lived there.)
Food is what would be the problem. There's just no way the current population can be supported there without imported food.
Posted: Sat May 22, 2004 11:30 am Post subject: in that case
It's kind of a self solving argument I think. Albeit a pretty gruesome one.
You said it yourself, no way can Hawaii feed that many people... therefore they won't.
And soon after that, they won't have to I suppose.
On a lighter note, I'm guessing that croaking in Hawaii will be much better of a prospect than croaking in Siberia. _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
Joined: May 23, 2004 Posts: 201 Location: Charlottesville, Virginia
Posted: Sun May 23, 2004 2:10 pm Post subject:
For the past couple of years, since I started being serious about this issue, I've been trying to formulate some reasonable, personal response so I'm not faced with the prospect of slow starvation sitting in a dark house with a shotgun.
It basically comes down to this. If the power grid colapses, I'm dead. No water, no sewage, a limited amount of food that I can store on premesis, no real medical services. Dead. Who would even want to live in such a world?
What I'm expecting to happen is gas and energy rationing, skyrocketing inflation, unemployment, banks foreclosing on properties, big increase in homeless and the psychological impact of all this happening within a relatively short period of time. (Btw -- I think the psychological aspect of the coming crisis has received almost no attention. Probably because nobody knows how people are going to respond.)
I am nearing retirement and live in small-town Virginia. I do not expect to reach retirement age at my current employer. The division of GE that I work for will likely be out of business in a couple of years. I expect GE as a corporation to be gone by 2012, a victim of the colapse of Globalism. I should be ok. House and car are paid for. Car is a Civic. I think the citizens of this town will help each other out as the need arises. I hope so anyway.
Here's another thought I've had: Texas has its own power grid. If the rest of the country is without power, there might be enough oil and NG remaining in Texas to keep the grid up. Houston might be uninhabitable without aircon, but the area around Austin might be tolerable.
And yet another thought: Sell house now while market is ridiculously high. After crash you can buy a nice house for dirt cheap.
Joined: Apr 10, 2004 Posts: 143 Location: Tulsa OK
Posted: Mon May 24, 2004 4:31 am Post subject:
Well Pops I thought it might be worth getting this back up with all the new posters maybe they would have some input. My thinking has certainly changed as I have read and reflected on what Peak will mean in my life. It doesn’t seem like the same person wrote my earlier post. Rereading it now it seems ridiculously naïve.
I try to look on it as a “challenge” in that yuppie sort of way. Not as a problem or difficulty. Calling it a challenge seems so clean and manageable. In many ways that is the only way to deal with what lies ahead. If I think to much about the totality of Peak it really seems overwhelming.
I have talked to a few people (family and close friends) about Peak and as time has gone by I have regretted it. I see that it has changed their outlook on life just as it has changed mine. Instead of looking forward to a “growing” economy and doing some consuming, I watch gas prices and war news and try too discern how much time I have left to prepare. Will I be able to buy rice and beans? How long will 2000 rounds of rifle ammo last? Will I even need rifle ammo? How will I cook food? And then the worst thoughts how will I turn away starving women and children?
I have pretty much come to the conclusion that most people even if they know and believe that Peak is upon us have no resources to prepare in any meaningful way. That at best their (and my) survivability is a crapshoot. Why rob them of their peace of mind?
(Captain of the Titanic): “May I have your attention please. The ship has struck an iceberg and will be sinking shortly. For your additional information there are lifeboats for only 10 percent of the passenger. Oh yes, I should mention that the water temperature is 40 degrees. Thank you for your kind attention”
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. Just because Y2K didnt happen doesnt mean the vulnerabilities went away. Boiled frog, cold turkey, buffalo stampeding for the cliff, deer in the headlights....
.
) Thoreau said he got more of his food from the local swamp than the local village gardens. I hope so.
). If you cant do anything else, expand your library!
