[Opinion] Assessments and Plans

NotIntoDenial · Coal Joined: Jul 05, 2007 Posts: 2

Hello all, this is my first post. I became aware of PO in 2000, but 2012 seemed a long way off and I let other things become my priorities. Then about 9 months ago my GW concerns let me to Dieoff; holy shizzle! This time I got obsessed/depressed. After much reading and thinking, these are my assessments & plans at this time.

Assessment

I believe the housing bubble/liar loans fiasco will lead to an unambiguous recession in the US, maybe fall 2007 or winter 2008. I see this tying the Fed's hands; if they raise interest rates the housing bubble pop gets worse, if they lower rates the dollar continues to loose value relative to other resource-supported currencies (Canadian, Australian, Russian) which increases imports costs.

Regarding PO, I subscribe to Geologist Jeffery Brown's "Export Land Model"; oil exports will decline faster than the underlying depletion decline due to increasing domestic consumption in the exporting counties. The rapid decline of Cantarell in Mexico is particularly troubling.

Plans

As it happens, I'm employed in one of two areas that Dmitry Orlov says prospered during the collapse of the FSU. My guess is that I have > 50% chance of a steady income till 2010, probably < 50% by 2012 (my nominal early retirement date). Although I expect to get next to nothing in real dollars from my pension, I plan to stay in the belly of the beast as long as the money keeps flowing.

That said, I sold my house in Miami ( 8' above mean high tide! ) right at the top ( dumb luck : ) I have half the money short-term liquid (in case of credit crunch) and half in PM and North American oil and nat'l gas stock. Canadian oil and gas rule; not only do they go up as oil goes up, but as the dollar falls I gain from the apreciation of the Looney. A win-win!

I'm living in a 1 bedroom apt and saving half my take-home pay. I'm the person mentioned in another post as having food stashed under the bed. More precisely, I took the box springs and frame from under my king-size bed and replaced them with 36 5-gal plastic buckets. I have about a dozen more under the hanging stuff in the closet. I'm your living proof you can store a lot of food and trade goods in a 1 bedroom apt!

I grew up in the country helping my mom garden, can, pickle, smoke, etc so I'm not totally clueless. In fact, I know that at 57 I'm getting a little old for intensive manual cultivation, so my longer term plan is to buy a piece of land and plant a lot of fruit and nut trees. I believe gathering is easier than cultivating. That said, I should be getting trees into the ground now, but I'm hoping that the real estate downturn will gather speed in the next 12 months and I will be able to get more land for my money. I'm making a gamble here that things will just slowly decline for a few years more, so I can get more land for my money. We shall see...

Thanks for your patience in reading this!
Errol in Miami

Pops

Since this is my thread I guess I get to make the rules.

The new rule is, since this is still the most important thread on the site (IMHumbleO) please feel free to comment here as you see fit.

It seems time folks start laying down their chips.
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Make a plan and work it:

Pops

Thanks Errol for your contribution and where you chose to post it.

I would sure like to hear from some of you frequent posters as to you’re A&Ps.

Please, lets not get off on too many tangents but quick critiques are welcome.
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Make a plan and work it:

Shannymara · Master Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5431 Location: Oklahoma

Based on current oil prices, the military buildup near Iran, the hurricane season looming ahead, housing market data, recent oil production (declines), export, and refining data, various level headed well educated people's increasingly doomerish tone, and the general vibe I'm getting from just about every direction, my assessment is things are going to get worse at a rapidly accelerating pace, at least economically. And that there's a non-trivial chance of a major trigger event at any time which could result in martial law, total economic collapse, all out global war, or any combination of those.

I'm not worrying about it. I'm just pressing forward with things as best I can. I'm getting a guard dog, building better housing for my goats (who knew we would have torrential rains almost every single day?), and working on establishing a Permaculture Center here. I went into panic mode when I first learned about peak oil, and made a lot of mistakes trying to do too much too fast. Now I feel more grounded. Materially I feel I am much better off than many people, in terms of my preps, my location, etc. So I'm at a point where all I can do is try to improve on what I already have. Learn more about growing useful plants, reduce my expenses, keep improving my physical condition, and most importantly get more involved in my community. If there's a SHTF event I'm as ready as I can be (considering diminishing returns).

I guess to sum up, my assessment is that things are bad and will get worse more and more quickly. My plan is to keep doing what I've been doing, only slower and more deliberately, involving people more than things.

Edit: I am naming the guard dog Jack. Thanks for the idea, Baldwin. I figure someone like that would be good to have on my team to compensate for my own soft heart, provided I am assured of their loyalty. With a good dog loyalty won't be a problem. I do think a degree of ruthlessness is going to be necessary to survive what's coming.
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"Every junkie's like a setting sun..." - Neil Young

EnergyUnlimited · Fusion Joined: May 15, 2006 Posts: 3122

In terms of personal preparations I also feel optimistic.
Being in good material situation and living in nice countryside setting in quiet seaside village helps very much.
On the other hand, will TSHTF soon, I really dont know.
As I had already written before, I am currently making decent money out of Cornucopians, being an owner of large B&B facility, in addition to some other activities.
I had noted that this particular season is best from all up to date (I run that business for last several years after abandoning career in pharma).
There is far more Cornucopians, than I (or all my competitors around taken together) possibly could serve and they are paying more money then they were last year.
I am fully booked up to end of season and most of bookings are paid upfront in full.
So it only gets better...

I really dont know how long it will go like that.
When I talk to Cornucopians (my customers) that gasoline may go up in price 2-3 times within next two years or so, they are completely unconcerned and they are often noting that "we will always have money".
Surely, they will...

Locals around are also turning Cornucopian, even if many of them were actually running something close to sustainable life and were often mostly self sufficient until quite recently.

Few months ago I convinced one of my neighbours not to convert his vegetable garden into tennis courts.
He was looking on me quite distrustfully but on the end he had listened. Argument that your own vegetables are tastier than crap bought in shop was convincing enough.

I really dont know when this tourist boom will end, but surely I will make some money while it last...

bshirt · Heavy Crude Joined: Dec 23, 2006 Posts: 446

topcat

My assessment (similar to others) is that we SHOULD have a fair economy until mid-to-late 2008. TPTB will try and do whatever possible to keep all the balls in the air. Any major issue could 'blow up' at any time (you know the standard potential problems).

As far as us, we continue to run our small fruit and veg farm and roadside market. A year and a half ago, when I really grasped PO, we went on a canned food and paper products buying spree. These need to be replentished, used, rotated.

Also laid up small boxes of med supplies (band-aids, tape, gauze, etc), batteries, and who knows what else.

Added to ammo, guns, and stopped throwing things out (like empty vitamin bottles - never know when you may want a small plastic bottle with a lid).

Need to convert the plasticulture veggies to raised beds but keep putting it off as I just don't like to change and it is going to involve lots of changes, decisions, and money.

Need to organize and inventroy just what we DO HAVE, make a master list of what we NEED, what we WANT, and then fill in the holes.

Did have some improvements to the basement walls to relieve some stress and reduce the water inflow after big storms as it looks as if we kinda are stuck here and it is not that bad of a place to be stuck.

threadbear · Expert Joined: Jan 22, 2005 Posts: 7502

NotIntoDenial. What calm, clear and intelligent planning. Everything you have done will stand you in good stead, for any kind of crisis. Perhaps in the future, furniture manufacturers will remanufacture bean bag furniture, bean filled mattresses, etc..etc..

As soon as I can, I'd like to get a new queen sized mate's bed with tons of storage underneath for stockpiling. I'm already good for about 6 months of disaster. I sold some property in Seattle (am in Canada) and have done what you've done with the proceeds. I've eschewed energy funds for the last few years, as it seemed almost like investing in blood diamonds, but managed to get a Canadian energy fund that capitalizes on peak, without anyone getting hurt too badly...I hope. I wonder if there's such a thing as a truly ethical fund?

Your post was great. Hope to hear more from you.

Revi · Fusion Joined: Apr 25, 2005 Posts: 3252 Location: Maine

We are getting out of debt, making our house as energy efficient as possible and working on the woodlot to get more maple syrup out of it. I think these next few years are going to be increasingly difficult. The price of the basics is going up, the taxes are climbing and growth seems to be stopping. It seems like the retrenchment has already begun here in Maine. We suffer from a late spring when economic booms happen in the rest of the country, and an early winter when they dry up. It keeps us from getting our hopes up. The history of Maine, from the very beginning is of developers hoping to make a killing in land getting stuck with a lot of it, which then grows back up in trees. I've noticed it is happening again.

I expect some kind of a recession/crash in the next year or two. Here it comes. I hope we make it. We're in about as good a position as we can be. There are still a few more things we could do though! Better get working!

Nicholai

I understand that we are experiencing a population overshoot. I understand that we have surpassed the Earth's natural carrying capacity and I understand that a peak in oil supply will put an end to our seemingly endless hyper growth. But I want to ask about surviving in a post PO world. I just finished high school and i'll be starting college in the summer. I live in the Suburbs and I have relatively meager financial power. I live in Alberta, just north of Edmonton. What would you recommend I do within, say, the next 5 years?

mos6507

Ludi

I'm not very good at assessing the situation, veering wildly from believing the doomiest of the doomers to the most cheerful of the optimists, so I tend to be a bit erratic in my plans and activities.

This year of extreme weather has been a good preview of the future I think, as far as global warming is concerned. Global warming being far bigger a concern even than peak oil, in my opinion. We had a severe icestorm in January, then a couple of floods including the most recent during Tropical Storm Erin. One of my many plans and projects is major water management around the house and garden. My reference for this is "Rainwater Harvesting for Drylands" by Brad Lancaster. We bought two more rain storage tanks, which have yet to be installed.

I try to concentrate on the basics - water, food, shelter.

Water - rainwater storage tanks, earthworks
Food - trying to plant as many species of edibles as will grow here under a variety of conditions from drought to flood, 10 degrees F to over 100 degrees F. Methods are permaculture and biointensive.
Shelter - retrofitting the house to be more comfortable without energy inputs.

There's always so much to do and so little of my own human energy. Sad

Pops

I don’t want to get the thread derailed but Ludi raises a very valid point regarding GW, water and reassessing ones plans.

When we were contemplating our move, the top concerns with this area were:
A, we had no idea of the true nature of the climate.
B, we had no first hand knowledge of the topography, and
C, we had only a couple of firsthand looks at the property and locale

We moved here at the end of an exceptionally wet and mild summer, which carried through the winter. Followed the next two summers by close to record drought, and this last year by extremes of ice, rain and heat Ludi mentions.

We did due diligence finding out average rainfall, growing season, flood plains/drainage, etc but when we arrived and soon experienced some droughty conditions I did a little earthwork and diverted some runoff to the garden.

Inadvertently, I diverted a major source of runoff to our stock pond, which admittedly is situated in a less that perfect location but… Realize there is only 30 feet or so of elevation difference across our 40 acres and without a little experience or some serious transit work the gradients are somewhat obscure.

So my point is, in the area of assessing a new location, make your observations carefully and your plans deliberately.
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Make a plan and work it:

Revi · Fusion Joined: Apr 25, 2005 Posts: 3252 Location: Maine

I think it may be wise to prepare for this winter. It looks like the manure may hit the manifold sooner than we thought. I intend to stockpile some rice and beans and a lot of firewood this fall. If it isn't as bad a time as we thought we can always eat the stores and burn the wood. We'll see. Recent events have me worried.

RedStateGreen

We moved from CA to OK two years ago because my husband got transferred. Fortunately, this hit the housing bubble perfectly and we made $100k on the deal and got a great house and almost an acre of land. Bad news is the house is huge (2800 sq ft), almost entirely electric (except for the stove, so our electric bill is sky high) and in a HOA/gated community, so no livestock or chickens for now.

I found out about peak oil back around June. My husband believes the free market and technology will solve everything, but I'm not so sure.

I've been working on my garden, which is what takes the longest to get going, while I slowly stock up on canned food and grains to cover what I can't grow.

I found "Four Season Gardening" by Eliot Coleman and I absolutely love his approach to things. I'm partially disabled and having to do most of this on my own, so anything which reduces the work is a godsend.

I bought some rainbarrels (with the connector ports already in!) and have a fish pond in front; when everything gets online I'll have 1600 gal. of water on hand, just in case something happens. This rainwater thing is fun; I'm trying to figure out a cistern or (more likely) another huge pond out back for growing catfish.

My husband just today said he was willing to look into geothermal heating/cooling (he has a friend who did that and likes it) and maybe solar electricity. I am totally stoked about that!

What I'm looking to do next is learn about permaculture and landscape my property mostly edible. This will most likely take a couple of years to complete, but I'm looking forward to it.
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Conservation is conservative

"Many that live deserve death. And some that die deserve life. Can you give it to them? Then do not be too eager to deal out death in judgment."