Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1628 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 11:30 am Post subject: EIA's International Petroleum Monthly
Well, the IPM is out once again, so I made another chart. The declining plateau continues, as the bump up in July's production numbers looks like just another lower foothill to the peak of May, 2005. How long does this continue before everybody acknowledges that peak oil is here? Is there even a possibility that any new projects coming on line will produce enough to overcome depletion of older fields, never mind put us back over the May, 2005 peak?
We are currently down 1.02 mb/d, or 1.37% off the May, 2005 peak, during a time of record oil prices and booming demand. It's starting to get obvious that there's a big problem here.
_________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Last edited by joewp on Fri Apr 11, 2008 2:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 1:48 pm Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
One should not underestimate the power of denial.
Keep in mind that Peak Oil means the end of growth (at least for a time), and of reduced expectations and lifestyles (again, at least for a period of time).
No one wants to hear that. No one wants to be told that we're going to see 90% of the population go back to the fields, where they will perform back-breaking unpleasant labor, and it will only end when death releases them.
No one wants to recognize that they will have less money, less to eat, less opportunity next year than they do this year.
We will all be like Adolf Hitler at the end - commanding divisions that do not exist to go into battle and save us from the impending destruction. Fusion will be just around the corner. Super-duper quantum-effect nanotech solar cells will be ready to be deployed soon. Ultra jojoba bean cane sugar biofuels will be close to becoming practical. The real headlines will, I suppose, be only slightly less inane than my examples.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5907 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 2:26 pm Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
Peak regular crude oil production is being obscured mostly due to the fact that most are usually looking at all liquids - which include biofuels and natural gas to liquids.
I don't remember here in the US during the 1980s that it was even mentioned by the most pessimistic that US oil production had peaked – forever. It doesn't appear likely that anyone in a position of power will say the world has reached peak oil production, and it's downhill from here. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2472 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 3:36 pm Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
Jack,
You have hit the nail squarely on the head with the hammer.
Denial will be the order of the day. It is going to be the undoing of modern man. It may take a while, and it may happen more swiftly, but to be sure, the fight to hold on to what we have and the will to push the reality out of sight will be strong.
We will not go quietly into that night.
The only real unknown for many of us now is when does darkness fall. The sun is setting and the twilight holds no promise of a brighter tommorow.
Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 3:38 pm Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
DantesPeak wrote:
Peak regular crude oil production is being obscured mostly due to the fact that most are usually looking at all liquids - which include biofuels and natural gas to liquids.
I don't remember here in the US during the 1980s that it was even mentioned by the most pessimistic that US oil production had peaked – forever. It doesn't appear likely that anyone in a position of power will say the world has reached peak oil production, and it's downhill from here.
Not just biofuels, but non conventional petroleums (tar sands, Venezuela super heavy, perhaps very deep water, etc.) depend on a subsidy that is running out. This has to hide the truth.
I've come to believe that Peak Oil is an impossible concept for most Americans, especially 'serious' educated people to understand. Economic growth is so ingrained academically, psychologically, and emotionally and every American's personal and social goal. It is just about the only politically acceptable solution to income disparity. Folks can not live with the idea of limits and peak oil is all about limits.. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Joined: Mar 18, 2006 Posts: 1211 Location: Last outpost of Civilisation
Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 3:48 pm Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
Jack wrote:
One should not underestimate the power of denial.
Keep in mind that Peak Oil means the end of growth (at least for a time), and of reduced expectations and lifestyles (again, at least for a period of time).
No one wants to hear that. No one wants to be told that we're going to see 90% of the population go back to the fields, where they will perform back-breaking unpleasant labor, and it will only end when death releases them.
No one wants to recognize that they will have less money, less to eat, less opportunity next year than they do this year.
We will all be like Adolf Hitler at the end - commanding divisions that do not exist to go into battle and save us from the impending destruction. Fusion will be just around the corner. Super-duper quantum-effect nanotech solar cells will be ready to be deployed soon. Ultra jojoba bean cane sugar biofuels will be close to becoming practical. The real headlines will, I suppose, be only slightly less inane than my examples.
Bottom line - we won't accept the finality of peak oil, ever.
Or we cast the ring back into the fire from which it was forged and return in peace to our little rural idylls (grin - in-joke 'twixt me & Jack).
Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 3:50 pm Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
more importantly
economic growth is ingrained in our financial system
we need perpetual economic growth to stave off catastrophe
due to the money issued as debt thing ;p
those who have studied where money comes from should know what i am talking about ..
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1628 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 8:21 am Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
dukey wrote:
those who have studied where money comes from should know what i am talking about ..
Yep, the debt monster that is always about to devour us, because the money creation system only ever creates the principle and never creates the interest, so there has to be an ever increasing amount of new loans to pay the ever increasing amount of interest on the old loans, but those new loans create their own interest that has to be paid back from money from new loans...
Ponzi was an amateur, the bankers are the professional scam artists.
And now with oil probably at it's peak and over $85/barrel, we're about to see the end of their scam. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6417 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 9:10 am Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
joewp wrote:
Ponzi was an amateur, the bankers are the professional scam artists.
And now with oil probably at it's peak and over $85/barrel, we're about to see the end of their scam.
Peak Money. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 9:47 pm Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
pstarr wrote:
I've come to believe that Peak Oil is an impossible concept for most Americans, especially 'serious' educated people to understand. Economic growth is so ingrained academically, psychologically, and emotionally and every American's personal and social goal. It is just about the only politically acceptable solution to income disparity. Folks can not live with the idea of limits and peak oil is all about limits.
Eventually the story is going to be 'Gas Lines'. I can't imagine a story beginning and ending with people queuing for fuel. Coverage of queues without mentioning the fact of shortage. A gas line in of itself. I would be throwing my popcorn at the TV, if I had one.
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3780 Location: over here
Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 10:06 pm Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
joewp wrote:
dukey wrote:
those who have studied where money comes from should know what i am talking about ..
Yep, the debt monster that is always about to devour us, because the money creation system only ever creates the principle and never creates the interest, so there has to be an ever increasing amount of new loans to pay the ever increasing amount of interest on the old loans, but those new loans create their own interest that has to be paid back from money from new loans...
That's not the way it works; paid interest doesn't somehow disappear from the economy: when I get interest on my savings I can still spend it. Not to say we'll have plenty of problems with the financial system, especially in the initial transitional phase which will be filled with economic mayhem, the money system in it's basics can exist in a declining economy. You can bet that some commercial banks will fail though. And ofcourse the whole system will fail when the rest of society does so too, completely. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1628 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Mon Nov 05, 2007 5:28 pm Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
Another month, another data point.
Looks like crude oil & lease condensate production declined to 72.5mb/d in August, a decline of 768,000 barrels a day from July. This is the lowest production since August, 2004. August, 2007 is off 1.7mb/d the peak in May, 2005, or 2.4%.
Here's an updated chart and it's not looking good for you late peakers out there. It actually looks like it's about to roll off the "plateau" and start heading down faster. Only time will tell.
_________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3655 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Mon Nov 05, 2007 5:39 pm Post subject: Re: International Petroleum Monthly
I hate to admit it but I am at the point now where if TS is really gonna splatter on TF then I want it to just go and get it over with. The whole loose Pakistani nukes scenario has gotten to me the last couple days.
So be it. _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
