Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 6:15 pm Post subject: Re: Are we better off in Australia?
timbo wrote:
solarpoweredlasers wrote:
... vassal state ... buying the resources the same way China locked down the 2B gas deal.
Yeah providing we are prepared to give the stuff away like the 2B deal, the terms of which and I quote "But the Australian contract has no price escalation clause, giving them no room to move" really piss me off, they have no real need to go to the expense of invading.
Also I suspect we are agreed that Chinjia are likely to be too busy with one another.
I would have said from an Indonesian point of view seizure of the North and Northwest for food growing, Timor for oil and gas and a peace deal would suffice. Especially given the changes in rainfall trends with the east coast drying out and the north getting wetter.
Oh yeah, the future of Australia is likely "you give us cheap or big stick".
You're right in thats all Indonesia probably wants but they still woldn't be able to hold anything on the mainland. It would be too hard to protect the supply lines.
Hill/Brendan Nelson might have Fark us a fair bit though. Indonesia is aquiring superior sukhois and we're buying bloody jsf's who's main role is combat support and integration.. ie fighting ground wars and supporting American invasions and being a cheapy version of the Raptor. We need long range strike capability - the role the F-111 currently handles not planes that are semi useless to the strategic defense of out country. We need either Raptors or bugger the Americans off and buy off the Russians if they won't get off their asses and sell Raptors to us. We spend 17B annually on our forces and the Indonesians spend 1B.. A lot of that is wage differences but we're focused on high tech long range strike and defensive capabilities and should be buying the best. There are going to be inquriries into the bullshit decisions Nelson made. Hopefully labor will do a better job of protecting Australia's air superiority.
Joined: Nov 24, 2007 Posts: 26 Location: south OZ , sheep/wheat zone
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 7:00 pm Post subject: Re: Are we better off in Australia?
Solarpoweredlasers I won't tell you what to think but I would suggest abit of caution in regard to Air Power Australia. Carlo Kopp and Peter Goon have a agenda and don't let facts stand in the way.
If you want to see another side to that debate visit sites such as t5c.cx or defencetalk.com
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 7:28 pm Post subject: Re: Are we better off in Australia?
dust_farmer wrote:
Solarpoweredlasers I won't tell you what to think but I would suggest abit of caution in regard to Air Power Australia. Carlo Kopp and Peter Goon have a agenda and don't let facts stand in the way.
If you want to see another side to that debate visit sites such as t5c.cx or defencetalk.com
Oh I know they're biased, and they tend to go overboard (ie indonesia has what - 6 sukhois? lol) I just tend to agree with their overall concerns. I will spend time looking at the links provided though - thanks, I do need to read further into it - if for nothing else than to feel better about the acquisitions we're making
Joined: Nov 24, 2007 Posts: 26 Location: south OZ , sheep/wheat zone
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 8:13 pm Post subject: Re: Are we better off in Australia?
Over at t5c they have a thread called "who is carlo kopp" go to t5c.cx > uberthreads > air . (must learn how to do links) They do not like him at all.
The yanks won't sell us the f-22 due to the obay ammendment and internal politics , and the punch line with the F-22 is that it can not do maratime strike so it's no good for us any way. The US federal government owns the actual design so any sale is pure politics.
Joined: May 13, 2006 Posts: 161 Location: Australia
Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 8:21 pm Post subject: Re: Are we better off in Australia?
solarpoweredlasers wrote:
...- if for nothing else than to feel better about the acquisitions we're making
I just hope we stay well clear of the Junky Stuffed Fighter. Some combination of different air superiority and ordance delivery platforms would certainly make the RAAF much more of a force to be reckoned with. With standoff munitions the need to fly "downtown" is much reduced and an increased number of, relatively cheap, F111's could probably handle the job.
Posted: Sun Dec 16, 2007 6:43 pm Post subject: Re: Are we better off in Australia?
dust_farmer wrote:
Over at t5c they have a thread called "who is carlo kopp" go to t5c.cx > uberthreads > air . (must learn how to do links) They do not like him at all.
The yanks won't sell us the f-22 due to the obay ammendment and internal politics , and the punch line with the F-22 is that it can not do maratime strike so it's no good for us any way. The US federal government owns the actual design so any sale is pure politics.
Oh I realise they're not going to let go of it in a hurry, I mentioned that in a post above - that we should threaten to buy off the Russians (I wasn't being entirely serious). But I think in a PO environ and in supporting the Japan/Australia/India bloc against China like they seem to be starting to do, and with Japan crying out for Raptors.. we may see it sooner than you think as we become stronger regional proxies.
The F-22 can go maritime, it's just not it's strong suit. Eventually it would have been good to mix in the FB-22 if that ever becomes available as it's essentially a modern F-111.. but it's shelved?
But yes, we may not get our hands on it. And if we do it'll be dumbed down like the JSF.
Last edited by solarpoweredlasers on Sun Dec 16, 2007 6:51 pm; edited 2 times in total
Posted: Sun Dec 16, 2007 6:47 pm Post subject: Re: Are we better off in Australia?
timbo wrote:
solarpoweredlasers wrote:
...- if for nothing else than to feel better about the acquisitions we're making
I just hope we stay well clear of the Junky Stuffed Fighter. Some combination of different air superiority and ordance delivery platforms would certainly make the RAAF much more of a force to be reckoned with. With standoff munitions the need to fly "downtown" is much reduced and an increased number of, relatively cheap, F111's could probably handle the job.
Ah well.. I don't really disagree lol. I'm really more anti-JSF than I am pro-Raptor, it's just when it comes to those two options... Upgraded F-111's would do us fine until such a time as we can make a better leap forward with all cards on the table.
Joined: Nov 24, 2007 Posts: 26 Location: south OZ , sheep/wheat zone
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2007 3:23 am Post subject: Re: Are we better off in Australia?
Upgraded f111 would be a waste of time imo for two reasons. First is risk management , no one else are doing upgrades for f111 as no one else has them so all development risk is carried by us. Look at some of the weapon intergration work that has been carried out by us on the f111 such as the agm-142 . That was ment to be quick and simple but it took over 4 years.
The second reason is cost. Even if you have a perfect development program with no overruns in cost or time the entire program cost is divided between how may planes? 24? c models So if you have a total program cost of say $1 billion then each upgraded plane would cost around $42 million each , for a old plane. Better of buying new F-18 E/F .
I agree with timbo that stand off munitions reduces risk for the warplane involved and while buying off the shelf reduces risk we should have a standoff weapon program of our own.
The FB22 far as i know is stillborn and buried. The yanks are meant to be working on a new bomber but iraq seems to be sucking the money pit dry. But it is interesting to see where they are spending money - ucav's and uav's.
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2007 1:55 pm Post subject: Re: Are we better off in Australia?
Is Australia agriculturally self sufficient? If not, any idea what percent of your food you import and from where?
And how long will your coal and uranium exports hold on for? What will Japan's reaction be when you cut off their energy supplies? Or start selling them to China instead?
Joined: Nov 24, 2007 Posts: 26 Location: south OZ , sheep/wheat zone
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2007 4:35 pm Post subject: Re: Are we better off in Australia?
For all practical purposes australia is self sufficient in all the important areas loki. For 2006-2007 austalia exported 11,196,000t of wheat, 974,000t of beef , 312,000t of sheep and lamb plus smaller amounts of pork and chicken. All this out of a drought.
I think the only areas we import that we would have a hard time replacing is tea and coffee. and chocolate.
As for coal we export 102 Mt and use 46Mt of black coal , and looking at world production australia is the third biggest producor of all coal types after china and usa. Looking at the china numbers does any one know what their reseves are like? as the numbers that I've found say they are digging up 2,381 Mt a year.
Just found $totals of food. Australian exports are $23,217m and imports are $8199m
Hope this helps. All the information that I found comes from ABARE or australian bureau of agricultural and resourse economics , who in the considered opion of most australian farmers think that ABARE predictions of what the comming year price estimates for commodities are a complete waste of time. Good for what has happened , useless for what will.
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2007 5:24 pm Post subject: Re: Are we better off in Australia?
Thanks DF. I thought Australia might be food self-sufficient, but I'll admit to a woeful ignorance when it comes to Australian agriculture.
I was surprised to see how much coal Oz exports to Japan. It crossed my mind that the Japanese would not be pleased if you sent it to China instead, or stopped exporting it altogether. I think there's a possibility that the Japanese Empire may rise again. If it does, Australia would be a target (again).
I've been down under a couple times. I like the country and the people. The USA would probably help (again), if we can. If.
Joined: Nov 24, 2007 Posts: 26 Location: south OZ , sheep/wheat zone
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2007 8:50 pm Post subject: Re: Are we better off in Australia?
Was not that wide awake this morning when I replyed to you loki and missed the bit on uranium. Plenty of U in austalia but nuclear power , uranium mining and processing is a very touchy subject. I doubt we will every have a nuclear power industry here.
As for japan , they are not a worry , all the strategic problems they had in ww2 still exist today ie dependant on imported raw materials plus they have a aging population. Only india and china have the raw man power to go on a ww2 style rampage and they don't like each other , so as long as they keep eyeballing each other every one else is ok. The two biggest military threats to australia imo are failed states/civil wars, and a repeat of pre ww1 europe senerio of a bunch of interlocking defence treatys and then have some damn fool shoot a political non entity which starts a war and pulls everyone else in due to the treatys.
Joined: May 13, 2006 Posts: 161 Location: Australia
Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2007 10:55 pm Post subject: Re: Are we better off in Australia?
On the Junky Stuffed Fighter aside from the fact that it tries to be everything to everyone and fails miserably my other really big issue is the way we just dumped our normal aquistion process in favour of ministerial fiat.
dust_farmer wrote:
...interlocking defence treatys and then have some damn fool shoot a political non entity which starts a war and pulls everyone else in due to the treatys.
Nobody got sucked into WWI who didn't want to be. It was a resource war just as surely as the next one will be.
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2007 11:29 am Post subject: Re: Are we better off in Australia?
dust_farmer wrote:
Was not that wide awake this morning when I replyed to you loki and missed the bit on uranium. Plenty of U in austalia but nuclear power , uranium mining and processing is a very touchy subject. I doubt we will every have a nuclear power industry here.
As for japan , they are not a worry , all the strategic problems they had in ww2 still exist today ie dependant on imported raw materials plus they have a aging population. Only india and china have the raw man power to go on a ww2 style rampage and they don't like each other , so as long as they keep eyeballing each other every one else is ok.
Japan's reliance on imported raw materials is exactly the problem. When their crack is cut off, I don't think they'll just roll over and die. Japan is a wealthy, highly advanced, populous country with a very strong sense of nationalism and ethnocentrism. Despite their aging population, I think they'll do what they need to do to stay on top. Of course, there's the little problem of a rising China. China is not the mess it was when the first Japanese Empire started expanding. They won't be steamrolled like they were in the 1930s.
India can't find its own ass in the dark, so I doubt very much they will pose a threat to anyone except Pakistan.
Indonesia would pose an interesting threat, though it sounds like they would have some challenges if they tried to take on Australia. They do have a very large population, though, and some resources. I wouldn't write them off. If nothing else, large boatloads of refugees is not out of the realm of possibility. We're "enjoying" this right now in the US, both from the Caribbean and from Mexico and other points south. They are literally coming by the million.
Someone earlier mentioned scuttling refugee boats if Indonesia sends its hungry millions to the south. Not gonna happen. If the US can't stomach the thought of "taking care" of the refugee invasion in this manner, Australia sure as hell ain't gonna do it.
Joined: May 13, 2006 Posts: 161 Location: Australia
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2007 3:55 pm Post subject: Re: Are we better off in Australia?
Loki wrote:
...Someone earlier mentioned scuttling refugee boats if Indonesia sends its hungry millions to the south. Not gonna happen. If the US can't stomach the thought of "taking care" of the refugee invasion in this manner, Australia sure as hell ain't gonna do it.
Wouldn't bet on it, its just that the U.S. and Australia are not quite that desparate just yet. History is littered with genocidal acts.
I fully expect our "mulitcultural" society to tear itself apart as things become worse. And if we are slaughtering our own then machine gunning Indonesian refugees will be easy.
And yes its just as likely to be a wave of refugees as a concerted attack as Indonesia is an artificial nation only recently created from a number of ethnic and religious groups and hence vulnerable to internal strife leading up to civil war.
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