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Hogan
Light Sweet Crude
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Joined: Oct 25, 2004
Posts: 1298
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 Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 9:19 pm Post subject: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone! |
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| Quote: | Why the Oil Picture Is Getting
Scarier Every Single Day!
I can't think of a more ghastly Halloween tale than the current situation in oil and gas. Let's start with a few important facts:
Oil demand is hot and getting hotter. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) it's averaging 85.9 million barrels per day (bpd) this year … will rise to 87.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter … and up to 88 million bpd in 2008.
Production is sliding. The IEA says the world pumped 86.13 million bpd in July 2006. Less than one year later, in June 2007, production of total liquids fell to 84.50 million bpd.
Inventories are down. Oil inventories in leading industrialized countries fell by 21 million barrels in August to equal 53.5 days of demand, below the five-year average, the IEA said. And recent estimates put the number even lower — closer to 51 days of supply. |
| Quote: | | This chart (below) comes from OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report for October 2007. As you can see, crude oil prices tapered off in September of 2005 and 2006 (the green and black lines) along with seasonal demand. But this year that's not happening. As the red line shows, global demand this September was strong and getting stronger! |
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Are you scared yet? Happy Halloween everyone!
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Bas
Moderator
Joined: Mar 26, 2005
Posts: 3758
Location: over here
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| Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 9:27 pm Post subject: Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone! |
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And to make it even more scary, we're about 2 centimeter off the top of that chart at the moment....
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"The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
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Hogan
Light Sweet Crude
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Joined: Oct 25, 2004
Posts: 1298
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| Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 9:30 pm Post subject: Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone! |
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| Bas wrote: | | And to make it even more scary, we're about 2 centimeter off the top of that chart at the moment.... |
Agreed. These charts become so quickly outdated due to fast rising crude oil prices that it's ridiculous. Another scary Halloween story indeed. |
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Andrew_S
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Jan 09, 2005
Posts: 683
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 2:29 am Post subject: Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone! |
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| That graph certainly is scary. But I wonder when the effect will be seen at the gas stations. Prices where I am are still well below the highs of 2006. Strange. |
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MacG
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jun 04, 2005
Posts: 1176
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 4:45 am Post subject: Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone! |
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| Andrew_S wrote: | | That graph certainly is scary. But I wonder when the effect will be seen at the gas stations. Prices where I am are still well below the highs of 2006. Strange. |
Indeed. Could it be that someone is drawing down stockpiles? If we don't get rationing by price we will probably get outright shortages. |
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Novus
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jun 21, 2005
Posts: 1700
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 10:11 am Post subject: Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone! |
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| Bas wrote: | | And to make it even more scary, we're about 2 centimeter off the top of that chart at the moment.... |
Chart made more scary on Nov 1 so Halloween doesn't end this year.
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Hogan
Light Sweet Crude
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Joined: Oct 25, 2004
Posts: 1298
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 10:26 am Post subject: Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone! |
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Novus, thanks for updating the chart.  |
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gnm
Expert
Joined: Jul 08, 2004
Posts: 2644
Location: plundering eco-villages
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 10:29 am Post subject: Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone! |
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Good grief! Ugly when you see it laid out like that. Gotta be just speculation right? ..... RIGHT!?
-G
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Cobra_Strike
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Jan 06, 2006
Posts: 508
Location: Pacific Northwest
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 2:36 pm Post subject: Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone! |
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Coool....super spike phase? Next summer could be rough at this rate.
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joewp
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 05, 2005
Posts: 1627
Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 4:37 pm Post subject: Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone! |
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Somebody here at PO.com postulated a 3-year delay from peak production to a catastrophic occurrence(e.g. US peak in 1970, gas lines in 1973). Since conventional crude oil seems to have peaked in 2005, I'd say that 2008 looks like it indeed could be rough.
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Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb |
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Sys1
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Feb 25, 2005
Posts: 645
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 4:49 pm Post subject: Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone! |
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| joewp : Yes but they said this evening on TV that since France (i'm french) adopted the nuclear energy after the 1973 shock, oil scarcity can not hit much our economy. (It will just be annoying at the pump.) |
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Tyler_JC
Moderator
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Joined: Sep 25, 2004
Posts: 4534
Location: Boston, MA
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| Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 5:23 pm Post subject: Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone! |
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| joewp wrote: | | Somebody here at PO.com postulated a 3-year delay from peak production to a catastrophic occurrence(e.g. US peak in 1970, gas lines in 1973). Since conventional crude oil seems to have peaked in 2005, I'd say that 2008 looks like it indeed could be rough. |
The 3 year lag time is completely unrelated to the current situation.
The OPEC embargo and price controls lead to gas lines.
The peak in US production was not important with regards to the gasoline availability situation.
Granted, the peak in US production meant that we couldn't increase production instantly to compensate for the loss in imported OPEC oil, but production increases have a large time lag so it wouldn't have mattered during that small blip anyway.
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"www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse." |
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joewp
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 05, 2005
Posts: 1627
Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
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| Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2007 11:51 am Post subject: Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone! |
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| Sys1 wrote: | | joewp : Yes but they said this evening on TV that since France (i'm french) adopted the nuclear energy after the 1973 shock, oil scarcity can not hit much our economy. (It will just be annoying at the pump.) |
It will be even more annoying when the nuclear engineers can't buy gas to get to those plants and keep them running.
| Tyler_JC wrote: | The 3 year lag time is completely unrelated to the current situation.
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I'm not saying that there's a definite relationship, just that it seems to happen. We'll see by this time next year, I'm sure.
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Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb |
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anagami
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jul 26, 2006
Posts: 1670
Location: Sudavasa Abodes
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| Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2007 3:23 pm Post subject: Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone! |
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...that graph is strange; between the beginning and end of 2006 there was basically no rise in price... well, maybe the Peak was '06 not '05... but at the end, those it matter? we're heading down either way.
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Lighthouse
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Mar 02, 2006
Posts: 1458
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| Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2007 5:45 pm Post subject: Re: This chart will scare you. Happy Halloween everyone! |
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Not that I do not like simplified approaches but you pick one graph out of a complex system and come to assumptions and conclusions. Interesting.
Girls and boys, may I remind you that the US$ lost a bit of its value recently? Don't you this this could have an impact on the price for a barrel of the stinking black stuff we all crave so much?
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I am a sarcastic cynic. Some say I'm an asshole. Now that we have that out of the way ...
Last edited by Lighthouse on Fri Nov 02, 2007 6:34 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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