Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1627 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 3:22 pm Post subject: Re: Update: Bumpy Plateau - 1.5mbpd below all time high
I made an updated chart from the 1.1d table (crude oil and lease condensate) and it looks worse... (that peaked in May, 2005)
And fitting a curve to the data from January 2005 to August 2007 out through the end of 2008 produces this:
_________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Last edited by joewp on Tue Nov 06, 2007 3:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 5:03 pm Post subject: Re: Update: Bumpy Plateau - 1.5mbpd below all time high
I'm new to all of this, so please bear with my ignorance: a lot of this just goes over my head. I just found out about the whole concept of Peak Oil this summer, googled like a maniac, went into a black funk, depressed/alientated half my friends, and started stockpiling tuna fish and beanie-weenies (which I figure will win my friends back after the collapse). :
My question is this (and again, don't laugh if the answer's common knowledge: I'm just trying to get my head around all of this): why is there so much controversy about the "bumpy plateau" concept? Some graphs I've seen show a pretty precipitous drop off after Peak Oil is reached, while others show a long, slow decline. I've read lots of explanations for how peak oil is estimated, but not much on how people calculate the duration of the bumpy plateau. What are the variables being considered? _________________ "The soil is bare now, nor can foot feel, being shod. But for all this, Nature is never spent..."
Gerard Manley Hopkins
Joined: Jun 03, 2004 Posts: 127 Location: Great Britain
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 5:21 pm Post subject: Re: Update: Bumpy Plateau - 1.5mbpd below all time high
GerardMH wrote:
I'm new to all of this, so please bear with my ignorance: a lot of this just goes over my head. I just found out about the whole concept of Peak Oil this summer, googled like a maniac, went into a black funk, depressed/alientated half my friends, and started stockpiling tuna fish and beanie-weenies (which I figure will win my friends back after the collapse). :
My question is this (and again, don't laugh if the answer's common knowledge: I'm just trying to get my head around all of this): why is there so much controversy about the "bumpy plateau" concept? Some graphs I've seen show a pretty precipitous drop off after Peak Oil is reached, while others show a long, slow decline. I've read lots of explanations for how peak oil is estimated, but not much on how people calculate the duration of the bumpy plateau. What are the variables being considered?
Naturally when one comes to the top of a hill, the gradient decreases and eventually completely goes flat for short amount of time. Oil production is never perfectly smooth, so as we reach the peak, we'll naturally enter a several year period at the top of the hill, with some bumps, but eventually we'll head down the other side. My personal feeling is that decline proper should really being to set in 2009 on, so a plateau of 4-5 years.
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 5:28 pm Post subject: Re: Update: Bumpy Plateau - 1.5mbpd below all time high
Would someone of the likes of Rembrandt Koppellar like to comment on this? I think he posted something on the oildrum a while ago arguing for a peak at a slightly higher production of oil........around 90 mbd a few years hence. _________________ I play the cards I'm dealt, though I sometimes bluff.
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 5:34 pm Post subject: Re: Update: Bumpy Plateau - 1.5mbpd below all time high
This might seem a bit of an ignorant question, however I think there is a significant difference between the latest figures for August 83.9 mbd, and the 3Q 2007 figures released I think a while ago. That shows 85.1 mbd.
Can someone please comment on that? _________________ I play the cards I'm dealt, though I sometimes bluff.
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 5:50 pm Post subject: Re: Update: Bumpy Plateau - 1.5mbpd below all time high
GerardMH wrote:
My question is this (and again, don't laugh if the answer's common knowledge: I'm just trying to get my head around all of this): why is there so much controversy about the "bumpy plateau" concept? Some graphs I've seen show a pretty precipitous drop off after Peak Oil is reached, while others show a long, slow decline. I've read lots of explanations for how peak oil is estimated, but not much on how people calculate the duration of the bumpy plateau. What are the variables being considered?
I think for the most part it's a case of presentation. All graphs have a bumpy plateau to an extent, it depends on the scale. Zoom in onto a parabola close enough, and you will see a flat line, while a 3% exponential decline rate can look like a cliff on a graph showing the production history going back to the 19th century. What you see depends on what is being shown, the macro two century picture or the decade of peak.
The controversy really comes from rather pedantic people who attempt to misrepresent the bumpy plateau as proof that the peak oil theory is flawed, as if the absence of a single defining spike makes an eventual decline any less likely, or further growth possible. They should resit a statistics class, the one about graphical presentation of data, or read newswire output for a few weeks.
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:00 pm Post subject: Re: Update: Bumpy Plateau - 1.5mbpd below all time high
Another question: Has the duration of the plateau any impact of the "steepness" of the fall?
Like as longer we try hard and harder to keep on top of the plateau as faster we fall off the cliff afterwards?
In simple terms (I know its more complex because we are not speaking of only one well): if the curve follows the mathematical rules of a Gaussian bell curve the area left of centre line must be the same as the area right of the centre line. Therefore forcing a plateau, even a bumpy one will lead to a steep fall? _________________ I am a sarcastic cynic. Some say I'm an asshole. Now that we have that out of the way ...
Last edited by Lighthouse on Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:50 pm; edited 2 times in total
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:04 pm Post subject: Re: Update: Bumpy Plateau - 1.5mbpd below all time high
The length of the plateau might also be affected by countries that do have spare production, but prefer a plateau instead of a nasty sharp peak - keeps the world economy in a better, more oil-demanding, shape for a longer time. The Saudis may be trying to prolong the plateau by letting the peak happen earlier than it would have to.
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:10 pm Post subject: Re: Update: Bumpy Plateau - 1.5mbpd below all time high
Absolutely correct, Lighthouse. You can see it in application of more advanced technologies holding production higher but increasing decline rates when it comes. The longer the plateau, the steeper the decline. If we could take the R/P ratio literally, neglect EROEI and party on until the 2040s, we would then watch an instantaneous cessation of flows. Enhanced recovery makes us approach that scenario to a (thankfully) limited extent.
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:40 pm Post subject: Re: Update: Bumpy Plateau - 1.5mbpd below all time high
Zardoz wrote:
Right, but once again, we need more data points, this isn't a representative sample, the jury's still out, lots of new fields are coming online, it's just a dip like we had in the 80s, etc., etc., etc., yadda, yadda, yadda....
Bullshit!
We've peaked, boys and girls. Get it through your thick skulls. This is it. We're there. We aren't going to leave this little matter to our kids to deal with. It's going to be our problem, as much as theirs.
We're screwed.
AirlinePilot wrote:
I agree Zardoz. Anyone who isn't going to be dead in the next 2 to 3 years is likely going to experience some significant economic and social upheavle.
It is starting to look inevitable.
But, but.. what about biofuels?
But, but .. what about abiotic oil?
But, but.. what about nuclear powered cars?
But, but.. what about the hydrogen economy?
But, but.. what about all the still-unexplored areas?
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 10:33 pm Post subject: Re: Update: Bumpy Plateau - 1.5mbpd below all time high
Drifter wrote:
But, but.. what about demand destruction?
Well, there's one out of eight!
I love reading about people who will keep driving as gas hits $4/gal, $5/gal, $6/gal, etc. I just wish the reporters could find the same people and interview them again when gas actually gets that expensive.
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 10:48 pm Post subject: Re: Update: Bumpy Plateau - 1.5mbpd below all time high
kjmclark wrote:
Drifter wrote:
But, but.. what about demand destruction?
Well, there's one out of eight!
I love reading about people who will keep driving as gas hits $4/gal, $5/gal, $6/gal, etc. I just wish the reporters could find the same people and interview them again when gas actually gets that expensive.
As someone else reminded me- don't forget about Jevon's Paradox. Oil demand is fairly inelastic. If there was demand destruction , it probably wouldn't last very long. When gasoline reaches $6 or whatever, all people will do is buy more fuel efficient cars. And demand will continue to increase. The more we conserve, the more we use.
All times are GMT - 6 Hours Goto page Previous1, 2, 3Next
Page 2 of 3
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
