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DantesPeak
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Joined: Oct 23, 2004
Posts: 4525
Location: New Jersey
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 Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:26 pm Post subject: Another Gasoline Record |
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Another Gasoline Record
When the first ‘Another Gasoline Record’ thread was started last March 26, gasoline prices in the US and Canada were a month or two away from reaching records in most locations. Since then the price of oil has moved up sharply – about $30.
Back then I noted refinery problems in the US were occurring at a rate of more than 1 per day. That trend has continued for most all of the year, and problems are also afflicting refineries in the Caribbean, Venezuela, England, and other countries that export gasoline to the US.
Propelled by the rising price of oil, the price of gasoline, diesel, and heating oil are rising fast. Yet the price of oil is rising faster, causing profit margins at many refineries to fall. Some are even realizing losses. Ironically, at least two major refineries have recently admitted to reducing production due to low profits - even as the price of gasoline approaches record territory for the second time.
In March, I suspected that the developing supply squeeze would most likely be temporary (a few months) with long term supply trends asserting themselves by Fall. Well Fall is here, and it’s becoming increasing clear that the days of ‘happy motoring’ are about to end. While the US has managed so far to keep its gasoline supplies above minimum operational levels (MOLs) – that is the minimum amount of inventory to keep the gasoline smoothly flowing to consumers – a date with destiny is approaching. A combination of factors reducing crude supplies and, at the same time, causing refinery production to drop, will bring us near the MOLs for gasoline within weeks. If we get there another wave of record gasoline prices will be seen. |
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Armageddon
Fission
Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 2561
Location: St.Louis, Mo
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:42 pm Post subject: Re: Another Gasoline Record (new thread) |
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| When do the riots begin ? I am 6'2" 220lbs and do not get messed with often, but when the riots start, I am sort of afraid of bullets. |
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Shannymara
Semi-retired Admin
Joined: Oct 04, 2004
Posts: 4331
Location: Oklahoma
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:51 pm Post subject: Re: Another Gasoline Record |
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The old thread is locked and located here:
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic27897.html
It's been replaced with this new one due to the page count error. Thanks to DantesPeak.
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gnm
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Joined: Jul 08, 2004
Posts: 2378
Location: plundering eco-villages
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 10:01 pm Post subject: Re: Another Gasoline Record (new thread) |
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| Armageddon wrote: | | When do the riots begin ? I am 6'2" 220lbs and do not get messed with often, but when the riots start, I am sort of afraid of bullets. |
You're not alone my buxom friend...
I am also 6'2" and 220. I have a poorly developed sense of fear and am into practically every dangerous sport there is but I can definitely say that getting shot is very low on my list of things to do as well.... 
-G
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Zardoz
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Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6053
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:47 pm Post subject: Re: Another Gasoline Record |
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Wholesale RBOB is now at a record $2.45, and the April contract is at $2.58.
God knows what we'll be paying for the stuff a year from now...
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jdmartin
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 19, 2005
Posts: 692
Location: Merry Ol' USA
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| Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:59 am Post subject: Re: Another Gasoline Record (new thread) |
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| gnm wrote: | | Armageddon wrote: | | When do the riots begin ? I am 6'2" 220lbs and do not get messed with often, but when the riots start, I am sort of afraid of bullets. |
You're not alone my buxom friend...
I am also 6'2" and 220. I have a poorly developed sense of fear and am into practically every dangerous sport there is but I can definitely say that getting shot is very low on my list of things to do as well....
-G |
Well since we're on size, I'm 5'9" and 225, 38" waist & 46" chest.  I suspect pretty much any bullet could take me out, however.
Back to gasoline - another 4 cents this morning, up to $2.99 from $2.95 the day before. I won't need gas for another 2 days so it'll be interesting to see what happens, but if I start to see shortages off to fill up my 5 gallon cans I go. Yep, I live by that old adage "To hell with my neighbor's gasoline needs" 
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After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off. |
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Drifter
Heavy Crude
Joined: Oct 25, 2004
Posts: 283
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| Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:55 am Post subject: Re: Another Gasoline Record |
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| Anyone getting kind of creeped out about this? That this feels like springtime with these gasoline price increases, but we are only into the late fall? |
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idomar
Heavy Crude
Joined: Mar 20, 2007
Posts: 124
Location: There is no hope for the future
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| Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2007 7:09 am Post subject: Re: Another Gasoline Record |
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Petrol in the UK is now OVER £1 per litre
BBC
I got rid of my car over a year ago!phew
I am now waiting for the fuel protests.
go anarchy..........woohoo!  |
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DantesPeak
Expert
Joined: Oct 23, 2004
Posts: 4525
Location: New Jersey
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| Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2007 8:33 am Post subject: Re: Another Gasoline Record |
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| Quote: | Prices at Pump Set To Join Crude's Rally
AAA Forecasts Increases If Oil Remains at Records;
Refining Outlook Is Tight
By ANA CAMPOY
November 7, 2007; Page A3
Gasoline has trailed oil's rise to nearly $100 a barrel, but fuel prices now look poised to take off.
Gasoline is now expected to follow, potentially taking money out of the pockets of consumers at a time of weakening growth in consumer spending.
Consumption data show U.S. consumers are beginning to respond, as consumption has dropped in recent weeks compared with a year ago. But economists say it would take a prolonged spell of high gasoline prices for consumers to react aggressively enough to affect prices.
"Right now people are saying 'Let's wait and see what happens. We like our big cars,'" says Carol Dahl, oil economist and professor at the Colorado School of Mines.
Longer-term, the outlook for the business of refining oil into fuels like gasoline appears tight as industry costs rise, according to Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy research firm known as CERA. |
Wall Street Journal
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Madpaddy
Expert
Joined: Jun 25, 2004
Posts: 1863
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| Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2007 8:40 am Post subject: Re: Another Gasoline Record |
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Haha to all you 6'2" 220 lbs godzillas. When the bullets start to fly they will find my 5'6" 150lb body, a very hard target.
On a serious note,
http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/1107/IEA.html
| Quote: | The International Energy Agency has warned that a global oil crisis involving an abrupt escalation in oil prices before 2015 can not be ruled out.
In its World Energy Outlook for 2007, the agency says that it is very uncertain whether new oil production in the period to 2015 will be enough to compensate for the natural falloff in output from existing oil fields and keep pace with the projected increase in demand.
The agency says the consequences of unfettered growth in world energy demand are alarming. |
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Tuike
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jan 10, 2005
Posts: 388
Location: Finland
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DantesPeak
Expert
Joined: Oct 23, 2004
Posts: 4525
Location: New Jersey
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 10:57 am Post subject: Re: Another Gasoline Record |
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I believe that is a record price for a front month futures contract. Even if not, it's clear that many US locations will have record retail gasoline prices before long. |
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ChadP
Tar Sands
Joined: Aug 28, 2005
Posts: 50
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 11:24 am Post subject: Re: Another Gasoline Record |
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| And there's still contango - Apr 08 futures have crossed $2.60. |
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Cobra_Strike
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Jan 06, 2006
Posts: 508
Location: Pacific Northwest
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 3:56 pm Post subject: Re: Another Gasoline Record |
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I am 6'4" on a good day, and at 245 lbs I am somewhat out of shape. I have started serious exercise, and am looking to drop 20.
Gas stations locally have prices all of the place, and I have seen as large as a .50 cent range. All the way up to $3.39 unleaded right now.
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We stand here, as the light of other days surrounds us.
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RedStateGreen
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Sep 16, 2007
Posts: 608
Location: Oklahoma City, USA
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| Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 4:56 pm Post subject: Re: Another Gasoline Record |
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Gas Price Watch has the highest spotted regular at 3.99 in CA. So that sounds about right.
That's a fun site. 
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Conservation is conservative. Red State Green
Don't worry about the world coming to an end today. It's already tomorrow in Australia. -- Charles Schultz |
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