Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: May 20, 2004 Posts: 235 Location: Sonoma County, Northern California
Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 1:10 pm Post subject: Resource Agression??? WTF - are these people insane???
Raymond Learsy, bio here from Huffington Post,
Quote:
Raymond J. Learsy is the author of the updated version Over a Barrel: Breaking Oil’s Grip on Our Future. A graduate of the Wharton School, he made his life in the fast-paced, risk-filled world of commodities trading, beginning in 1959. In 1963, he started his own firm and over twenty years expanded from the U.S. into Canada, the United Kingdom, Luxembourg, Brazil, and Pakistan, trading in an array of bulk raw materials and commodities, shipping to customers worldwide. In the 1980s, he became a private investor, and from 1982 to 1988, served as a Reagan appointee to the National Endowment for the Arts. Currently, he is a member of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Learsy's analysis of the international oil trade, OPEC, and its impact on the American and world economy has been featured in the National Review Online, the New York Times, the Pipeline and Gas Journal, the Huffington Post and on CNBC"
wrote a blog post castigating the Saudis for "agression" and "extortion" against the U.S. with help from Bush and Cheney. Here's an excerpt:
Quote:
Please note in my title I referred to waging resource aggression against the American people. The government was not mentioned because in this imbroglio our administration is in effect Saudi Arabia's, as well as OPEC's and the oil patch's greatest ally. In the near seven years of its Presidency, virtually nothing has been done to constrain Saudi Arabia's policies. On the contrary our President and Vice President are so wedded to the oil industry's interests that the enormous increase in oil prices during their tenure can well be ascribed to willful lack of any forceful policies to counter the Saudi extortion.
This is the first I have heard of this form of idiocy from "respected" (???) experts in the energy trading field. It is a stand that demands that we take action to thwart the "aggression" and "extortion." After reading the analysis of Saudi oil production and potential at The Oil Drum, I'm a believer that Saudi Arabia has limited additional capacity in light, sweet crude, and that the only Saudi spigot left to open is for more heavy, sour crude, which is much less desirable. Not to mention the possible catastrophic decline of production in the near future of light sweet crude from the super-giant Ghawar field, the world's largest which supplies about 5% of the world's oil.
Apparently, even people who made fortunes trading oil and other resource commodities cannot conceive that there are geological and technical limits to resources, and the impending disaster of the effects of peak oil.
Learsey wrote a 2005 book, "Over a Barrel: Breaking the Middle East Oil Cartel" based on the same anti-OPEC, anti-Saudi stance, prompting Richard Heinberg to write a critical review at Amazon:
Quote:
As the author of two books on Peak Oil, I admit to having a bias. Even so, I'd be happy to discuss Learsy's book in an even-handed way, questioning his arguments by stating counter-arguments, and supporting those with data. However, it is impossible to do this because Learsy makes no real effort to mount a scientific case in favor of his cornucopian assertions about plentiful oil for decades to come.
Instead, what he offers in his chapter "debunking" peak oilers is logical fallacy upon logical fallacy, with nary a fact to break the monotony. His favorite form of fallacy is the straw man: he attacks geologists like Hubbert, Campbell, and Laherrere for predicting that global oil production will follow a smooth bell curve--when NONE of them does so. He also says that most of the Peak Oil authors work for the oil companies or for oil-producing countries. How about some examples? I know just about every significant Peak Oil author (except Hubbert, who is deceased) and I can only think of one out of maybe a dozen who fits Learsy's description--which, if it were accurate, might lead the reader to think that Peak Oil authors have ulterior motives. These are just two examples out of many. It is really frustrating to see what should be a scientific discussion brought down to the equivalent of name-calling--evidently because the author has no actual evidence with which to argue his case.
Now to the author's primary assertion: that OPEC is gouging the world by imposing high oil prices. In fact, for most of its history OPEC has bent over backwards to supply oil at prices agreeable to Washington. The Saudis even let go of billions in potential earnings in the 1980s in order to flood the world with cheap crude so as to help bankrupt the USSR (it worked)--all to cozy up to George H. W. Bush and friends. Yes, OPEC countries could be spending more on production capacity, but the real reason for high oil prices today is that 33 out of 48 producing countries are past their all-time national production peaks. Global peak will probably occur within a few years.
Like much of the unsubstantiated verbal and written garbage coming from the American right's talk shows, books and blogs, the words of Learsy are short on facts and foundation, and full of false assumptions, straw men and fairy tales. Graduating from Wharton and making a lot of money trading commodities does make on an expert on the geology of resources. It will be interesting to watch oil cornucopians like Raymond Learsy and Daniel Yergin as the effects of peak oil unfold.
(The DOW is down 161 as it approaches 13,000, and oil is at $96.49/bbl as it nears the $100 mark as I finish this post.)
Joined: Aug 11, 2005 Posts: 826 Location: Eastern NC
Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 1:19 pm Post subject: Re: Resource Agression??? WTF - are these people insane???
Check the source, Huffington Post is a loony far left post. Wouldn't worry about them much, as they lean to the far left they tend to whine much and do little. Peak oil will hit the left far worse, can't maintain all those folks under a nanny state unless plenty of money is rolling in the system, might actually have to take care of yourself and family, and OH MY GOD, be responsible for your own actions.
Or, maybe Huffington Post is correct.
Joined: Feb 17, 2005 Posts: 29 Location: Boulder, Colorado
Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 2:14 pm Post subject: Re: Resource Agression??? WTF - are these people insane???
I guess I respectfully disagree that the left (in general terms) will be harmed more by peak oil then the right (in general terms) on the individual and household level.
Most left-leaning people I know are much more likely than right leaning folks to bicycle to work, own less cars, take transit, live closer to work, live in reasonably-sized homes, buy locally grown food, care about their energy use, practice conservation, and be willing to change their behavior in general.
Not many of my left leaning friends are driving massive SUVs 100 miles back and forth to their office job from their McMansion in the far suburbs. Those kind of people are the ones that are going to suffer. _________________ Bicycle Commuter
END OIL ADDICTION
BIKE FOR PEACE
The same goes for the rest. They either have that oil or they don't. We already know Kuwait doesn't. An angry and frightened world is not going to let them have it both ways much longer. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 2:42 pm Post subject: Re: Resource Agression??? WTF - are these people insane???
I completely agree: WTF - are these people insane???
Just because the USA is very powerful, doesn't mean it owns the world. Saudi Arabia as a sovereign nation can do anything it wants with the oil resources it owns.
Americans have had since the 1970s to realize that they might have some problems being completely dependent on imported oil. If the richest nation on earth hasn't come up with policies, technologies, and motivation to reduce oil usage yet, after more than 30 years , then that is entirely the USA's problem and they have no right to complain to any other country . Even today I don't see any real changes significant enough to make a real difference in fossil-fuel consumption.
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3904 Location: over here
Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 2:57 pm Post subject: Re: Resource Agression??? WTF - are these people insane???
v wrote:
I completely agree: WTF - are these people insane???
Just because the USA is very powerful, doesn't mean it owns the world. Saudi Arabia as a sovereign nation can do anything it wants with the oil resources it owns.
Americans have had since the 1970s to realize that they might have some problems being completely dependent on imported oil. If the richest nation on earth hasn't come up with policies, technologies, and motivation to reduce oil usage yet, after more than 30 years , then that is entirely the USA's problem and they have no right to complain to any other country . Even today I don't see any real changes significant enough to make a real difference in fossil-fuel consumption.
Welcome V, I totally agree with you. And now if you'll excuse me, I'm off to find a new avatar ; )
Joined: May 20, 2004 Posts: 235 Location: Sonoma County, Northern California
Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 3:20 pm Post subject: Fishman - you're using typical right wing strawman tactic.
Huffington post is indeed a left-wind blog site, which, unlike right-wing sites, allows some conservatives to post blog entries there as well. However, Raymond Learsy is a seriously conservative "free markets can solve all problems" businessman and commodity trader. The subject post is his personal, conservative opinion, and not a view of Arianna Huffington or any consortium of liberals.
I found it rather amusing that you attack a conservative's post supporting a conservative position as liberal simply because it is found on a liberal blog site. (I actually found it as a link from peakoil.com.) You did what Heinberg criticized in his review of Learsy's 2005 book - you neither acknowledged nor even indicated in any way that you actually read Learsy's words, but rather set up and attacked something else without refuting anything Learsy said when you saw where the blog was posted - a classic strawman tactic.
I prefer to get my oil and energy facts from non-political sites such as with news and article links such as peakoil.com, The Oil Drum, ASPO sites, and EnergyBulletin.net.
Come on, Fishman, cool your flippers (fins??) and get past your prejudices. Read content and rebut it if you disagree - rather than attack peripheral attributes of articles and posts.
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3980 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 3:58 pm Post subject: Re: Resource Agression??? WTF - are these people insane???
Yup that is it.
I read something from him on WND. which leans to the right a little.
It does not really matter what is politics are he is still full of it. I am not going to waste my time (wasting my time right now actually) on some supposed expert oil trade who says the Saudis are screwing us over.
He may have made money as commodities trader but that does not mean he is an expert on oil. He should attack all the independent oil companies too they are screwing us all by having total liquids decline by 6% year over year.
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3980 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 4:04 pm Post subject: Re: Resource Agression??? WTF - are these people insane???
Yup that is it.
I read something from him on WND. which leans to the right a little.
It does not really matter what is politics are he is still full of it. I am not going to waste my time (wasting my time right now actually) on some supposed expert oil trade who says the Saudis are screwing us over.
He may have made money as commodities trader but that does not mean he is an expert on oil. He should attack all the independent oil companies too they are screwing us all by having total liquids decline by 6% year over year.
Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 6:54 pm Post subject: Re: Resource Agression??? WTF - are these people insane???
It sort of make one wonder if the KSA knows that we are supposed to get their petroleum. Surely in the 70 years we have been active in their oil fields and partnered with them we have dropped a hint or two.
I think if they feel our money is second class or that our military umbrella is not reliable, we can kiss "our oil in their ground" goodbye.
It is after all trade and not manifest destiny if I remember it correctly.
"Whoever thought our two favorite inventions, fire and the wheel, would get together and kick our ass."
Joined: Apr 08, 2007 Posts: 488 Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:58 pm Post subject: Re: Resource Agression??? WTF - are these people insane???
Fishman wrote:
Check the source, Huffington Post is a loony far left post. Wouldn't worry about them much, as they lean to the far left they tend to whine much and do little. Peak oil will hit the left far worse, can't maintain all those folks under a nanny state unless plenty of money is rolling in the system, might actually have to take care of yourself and family, and OH MY GOD, be responsible for your own actions.
Or, maybe Huffington Post is correct.
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6786 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 8:31 pm Post subject: Re: Resource Agression??? WTF - are these people insane???
Fishman, do you realize how often you use the term "nanny state"? _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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, then that is entirely the USA's problem and they have no right to complain to any other country 
. Even today I don't see any real changes significant enough to make a real difference in fossil-fuel consumption.
