I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 5:17 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol plants shut on record corn prices - Citi
jlw61 wrote:
Is climate change happening... sure! Happened in the 70's... the 50's... the 1800's, the 1500's and all sorts of times in-between! Before I'll let anyone ask me to fear it ever again without some real challenge, I need something more than "because I said so" or "because I use bigger words" to make me concerned about human activity on the climate.
A childish argument.
Much like the young child who denies he broke the vase in the other room, it may be impossible to ever "PROVE" Man's activities are causing global warming. Certainly there is no evidence against "junior" except by correlation.
Intelligent people have moved the debate to the risk of your position being right or wrong.
It may be true that Man is not causing global warming.
It may be true that he is.
Which bet are you willing to make?
Which outcome would have the most dire consequences for all of us if it were to be denied and allowed to continue?
Don't wait for proof. The vase is falling to the floor, and appears to be accelerating. No one is in the room to see who bumped it, but is that really the point? The point is: Do we try to catch it, or let it fall and crash to pieces?
We will learn far more by trying to stop global warming - whether we caused it or not - than by sitting on our collective asses chanting "It's not our fault." _________________ 100% of the electricity needed for this post was generated by ME.
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Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 637 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 7:32 pm Post subject: Re: Ethanol plants shut on record corn prices - Citi
SolarDave wrote:
jlw61 wrote:
Is climate change happening... sure! Happened in the 70's... the 50's... the 1800's, the 1500's and all sorts of times in-between! Before I'll let anyone ask me to fear it ever again without some real challenge, I need something more than "because I said so" or "because I use bigger words" to make me concerned about human activity on the climate.
A childish argument.
Much like the young child who denies he broke the vase in the other room, it may be impossible to ever "PROVE" Man's activities are causing global warming. Certainly there is no evidence against "junior" except by correlation.
Intelligent people have moved the debate to the risk of your position being right or wrong.
Wow! Great diatribe! First I'm a child, then I'm stupid! What an amazing seqway between two insults without providing a shred of substance! I bow to your ability to lower the conversation even farther with your stunning display of hubris!
Quote:
Certainly there is no evidence against "junior" except by correlation.
Once again, and I hate having to repeat myself, correlation is not causation! Next, I must refute the premis of your weak argumentative imagery as you are trying push the conversation to your desired outcome without facts.
Quote:
It may be true that Man is not causing global warming.
It may be true that he is.
Which bet are you willing to make?
Which outcome would have the most dire consequences for all of us if it were to be denied and allowed to continue?
I love this argument! It's reminds me so much of the original Dirty Harry movie "Right now you need to be asking yourself 'Do I feel lucky'."
Ok, I'll give you a reply to this 'have you quit beating your wife' question.
Posit: Man is causing global warming.
Man has poisoned the earth, polluted the skies, and created a general mess of things. This has been done over the last 145+ years (or longer, depending on your viewpoint) and is largely caused by the fact that we have nearly 7 billion people killing the earth through neglect. Can you provide any solution that will not destroy the economies of several counties that, 'oh, by the way', provide a substantial amount of food and medicine to the world?
Posit: Man is not responsible for global warming.
If we are not responsible, or allowing for the possibility of slight responsibility, then it also follows we are not capable of easily fixing the problem. Further, if it is a cycle, the earth will be fixed automatically in a decade or so. While I applaud all scientific efforts, I feel solving things that are obviously caused by our hand to be of greater concern and of more pressing need.
Quote:
Don't wait for proof. The vase is falling to the floor, and appears to be accelerating. No one is in the room to see who bumped it, but is that really the point? The point is: Do we try to catch it, or let it fall and crash to pieces?
Again you advance a poor premise, but since I'm feeling magnanimous and a little silly because of the hour:
So only very fast reaction will save us...
Ok, shut down the factories, shut off the oil wells, shut off the electrical grid. Don't worry about killing 6 billion people since that will happen anyway because we can't afford to grow food, package it, ship it, and distribute it.
First we had to fix it within 50 years, then 20, now it's immediate action or we're all doomed... unless you're in the we've-passed-the-tipping-point group in which case, we're all dead, anyway.
Quote:
We will learn far more by trying to stop global warming - whether we caused it or not - than by sitting on our collective asses chanting "It's not our fault."
Fine, study your hearts out, in the mean time we'll learn a lot more an last a lot longer if we quite polluting the earth with plastics, toxins, and rampant capitalism and instead get to work on problems that has been caused by greed, stupidity and lust for power.
We have nearly 7 billion people on this planet and, unless some fast thinking can mitigate the mess we've made in other areas, up to 5 billion of them will simply 'go away'. Should that happen then all of the proposed solutions to "global warming" will be moot because there won't be enough people to put together an effective response.
Finally, (and, mods, please notice I'm trying to maintain some semblence of sticking to the topic) the problem at hand is not that ethanol plants are shutting down, but that bad weather is making it very unlikely that the hoped for bumper crop of corn. This in the long run could be a very good thing because I think the corn fuel-ethonal project needs to end in a big hurry.
The corn to fuel project is as big of a boondogle and is as destructive to the human race as the tarsand, oil shale, and coal to liquids technologies. And I don't think you can come up with much of an argument to refute that! _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Joined: Jun 30, 2005 Posts: 743 Location: northern California
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 8:01 pm Post subject: Re: Corn-belt floods sweep aside ethanol hubris
Human-induced climate change is not that difficult of a concept to understand or embrace. Anyone who has driven over the mountains into the LA basin has seen ample evidence of human effects on the atmosphere. What I find disheartening is that the main opposition to human-induced climate change stems from base political bigotry: " Al Gore says humans cause global warming, therefore it must be a lie!" That plus a self-centered arrogant greed, the "right to profit however I see fit". As Dick Cheney reputedly uttered: "the American way of life is non-negotiable". The corn belt floods were a pretty large hammer knocked "upside the heads of Americans. How big a hammer do we need? A 31.8 foot flood crest on a section of river that had a previous record crest of around 21 feet, looks pretty impressive to me, for one. _________________ "When men yield up the privilege of thinking, the last shadow of liberty quits the horizon."
Thomas Paine
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 637 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 6:36 am Post subject: Re: Corn-belt floods sweep aside ethanol hubris
dunewalker wrote:
Human-induced climate change is not that difficult of a concept to understand or embrace. Anyone who has driven over the mountains into the LA basin has seen ample evidence of human effects on the atmosphere.
Yes, I was there and the pollution is quite disheartening. The city is a fine example of people not caring enough about their environment. However, that small bowl does not provide ample evidence that man can easily change the climate (which is what we're being asked to believe). In under 40 years man has caused the climate to swing from the beginnings of an ice age to global warming? If the earth is that easily influenced then I suggest you all take a nice vacation to wherever you've always wanted, because in the next 10 years the planet will be dead.
Quote:
What I find disheartening is that the main opposition to human-induced climate change stems from base political bigotry: " Al Gore says humans cause global warming, therefore it must be a lie!" That plus a self-centered arrogant greed, the "right to profit however I see fit". As Dick Cheney reputedly uttered: "the American way of life is non-negotiable".
First, I agree, saying "It's a lie" because of who said it is stupid. Just as stupid as using a politician as a source of expertice for anything other than politics (and perhaps their previous vocation). Would you allow Al Gore or Tricky Dick to operate on you? Would you want either of them to take the controls from the pilot and land an airplane? So why do people insist on giving any politician (or actor) any special weight in declaring what is scientific fact? That's like asking the church to decide between creationism and evolution.
Quote:
The corn belt floods were a pretty large hammer knocked "upside the heads of Americans. How big a hammer do we need? A 31.8 foot flood crest on a section of river that had a previous record crest of around 21 feet, looks pretty impressive to me, for one.
And how many times must I say it: Correlation is not causation! I can and have pointed to numerous flooding in 70's, sometimes for months, during a time that everyone was worrying about a new ice age.
You know, perhaps I need to start a Global Warming campain... I understand there's really good money in that. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Joined: Jun 30, 2005 Posts: 743 Location: northern California
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 7:59 am Post subject: Re: Global Warming: The Greatest SCAM in History
jlw61, your logic of denial is impeccable. So be it. _________________ "When men yield up the privilege of thinking, the last shadow of liberty quits the horizon."
Thomas Paine
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 8:50 am Post subject: Re: Global Warming: The Greatest SCAM in History
No way his logic is impeccable. More like his drivel is boundless and he ignores any actual evidence and logic.
Specifically, the claim that humans do not cause warming is logically equivalent to the statement that "adding 27 billion tons of CO2 per year to the atmosphere has no impact on its thermodynamic state". This scientifically illiterate, infantile nonsense is not a legitimate debating point. The only reason this planet is habitable is because of CO2 otherwise the average surface temperature would be below freezing year round. We have increased the CO2 concentration by over 50% in the last 150 years. This is physics and not some political BS. But political zealots think everything is politics and opinion. They are subjectivist nitwits.
Joined: Jun 30, 2005 Posts: 743 Location: northern California
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 9:25 am Post subject: Re: Global Warming: The Greatest SCAM in History
dissident wrote:
No way his logic is impeccable. More like his drivel is boundless and he ignores any actual evidence and logic.
Isn't that what I said? jlw61's position of denial is impervious to refutation of his logic. Unfortunately, what he doesn't seem to appreciate is that this is not a debate game. What we're discussing here is the future of the planet. As it's quite likely that what humans decide to do at this point is irrelevant to the outcome, the question is moot in my mind. If he wants to continue to pretend it's not happening, that's his business. As Nature is not of christianity, it will make no choice between believers and non-believers. _________________ "When men yield up the privilege of thinking, the last shadow of liberty quits the horizon."
Thomas Paine
Joined: May 27, 2007 Posts: 1718 Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 9:48 am Post subject: Re: Global Warming: The Greatest SCAM in History
In under 40 years man has caused the climate to swing from the beginnings of an ice age to global warming? If the earth is that easily influenced then I suggest you all take a nice vacation to wherever you've always wanted, because in the next 10 years the planet will be dead.
Your argument is specious. Mankind has been putting additional greehouse gases into the atmosphere since the advent of agriculture and irrigation. It has only been since 1957 that the planetary carbon sinks became overwhelmed, and more carbon was put into the atmosphere than could be sequestered. Since then, the concentration of greenhouse gases has climbed to levels far exceeding anything found in the ice core record going back 800,000 years. Thus, the earth has not been easily influenced as you claimed. It took the spike in human population from just under 2 billion to nearly 7 billion in the last century to overwhelm the planetary carbon sinks.
Think of the planetary carbon sinks as like being a carbon filter on a spacecraft. Once it is full it stops working and carbon levels rise until you are dead. Unlike the spacecraft, many other things will trigger to kill us before anoxia.
The planet has warmed to the point that the Arctic ice cap is melting. The planet has not been without an Arctic ice cap for 1.1 million years. This was long before man existed on the planet. The ice caps moderate temperatures on the planet. they are like our planetary air conditioner. With their melting, nighttime average temperatures rise. While this makes it uncomfortable, it has also lead to increased melting of permafrost, releasing methane.
During the last Glacial Maximum, sea levels were far lower and permafrost covered vast areas in the arctic that are now underwater to a depth of about 100 meters. This permafrost, formed above water, but now underwater, is unstable and contains vast amounts of methane.
The warming of the Arctic ocean has put this underwater permafrost within 1 degree C of melting. We are talking Gigatonnes of Methane that will warm the atmosphere abruptly 10s of degrees.
You are correct, however, in that we face a massive human dieoff in the near term.
Another point, correlation is the cornerstone of Statistical Analysis and a foundation of Scientific inquiry.
People who use the 'correlation is not science' argument, mearly demonstrate their ignorance.
Interesting that this premise has been a cornerstone of the neocon's anti-global warming campaign. _________________ In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell
It riles them to believe that you perceive the webs they weave. - Moody Blues
Last edited by Cid_Yama on Sat Jun 14, 2008 10:48 am; edited 4 times in total
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 637 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 9:51 am Post subject: Re: Global Warming: The Greatest SCAM in History
dunewalker wrote:
dissident wrote:
No way his logic is impeccable. More like his drivel is boundless and he ignores any actual evidence and logic.
Isn't that what I said? jlw61's position of denial is impervious to refutation of his logic. Unfortunately, what he doesn't seem to appreciate is that this is not a debate game. What we're discussing here is the future of the planet. As it's quite likely that what humans decide to do at this point is irrelevant to the outcome, the question is moot in my mind. If he wants to continue to pretend it's not happening, that's his business. As Nature is not of christianity, it will make no choice between believers and non-believers.
And in 20 years, when we're being told to worry about a new ice age, I shall ask for an apology from both of you. Provided that humans have not pretty much killed themselves off because of pollution, greed, and lust for power. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 10:10 am Post subject: Re: Global Warming: The Greatest SCAM in History
jlw61 wrote:
And in 20 years, when we're being told to worry about a new ice age, I shall ask for an apology from both of you. Provided that humans have not pretty much killed themselves off because of pollution, greed, and lust for power.
You might just learning something from this graphic.
There will be no apology nor a new ice age. I suggest you note the upper left graph and start to understand how that ascending curve causes all the other curves to climb.
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 11:54 am Post subject: Re: Global Warming: The Greatest SCAM in History
The "global cooling" scare that skeptics love to point out was due to both an increase in aerosols in the atmosphere as well as coinciding paleoclimate research into the ice ages. The media ran with the doom story, because - well, that's what they do best.
The problem? Global cooling was a minority opinion in the scientific community. That's right, more scientists were worried about global warming in the 60s and 70s than cooling.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4377 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 12:20 pm Post subject: Re: Global Warming: The Greatest SCAM in History
What people don't realize is that earth's atmosphere has always been a product of a series of cause and effect. The earth was at one time unbreathable by humans. Plant life slowly "terraformed" the planet to be able to support land animals. It was this activity that created the oil and coal we're consuming now. If dumb life like plants were able to alter the planet I don't see why people fail to accept that the impact of 6+ billion humans releasing that fossilized carbon can not alter the atmosphere back to what it was originally. This was actually covered very well in the Crude - Incrdible Journey of Oil documentary. It went into enough detail and connected the dots in ways even a child could understand. If you just can't grasp that concept, there is no point continuing the debate.
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 2:35 pm Post subject: Re: Global Warming: The Greatest SCAM in History
Gas, you're just too funny.
So exactly how deep does your hysterical conspiracy go? Do you think the melting of the Arctic is a hoax? Do you think the well attested, dramatic increase in extreme weather events (long predicted by GW models) is a made up? Do you think every major, established scientific body in the world sat down one day and decided to pull the wool over everyones collective eyes?
I'm really curious to know just how extremely...blinkered you are.
I also find it completely adorable how deniers are always the first to jump up and down at any extreme weather event--whether its bizarrely extreme flooding its the US Midwest, or when tens of thousands of people die from bizarrely extreme heatwaves in Europe, or when hundred of thousands of people die in a monstrous cylcone in Myanmar--and point out that no one weather event can be pinned conclusively on GW.
But one slightly cool day in Britain proves conclusively to our wise gasbag that the whole GW thing is bunk.
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 3:13 pm Post subject: Re: Global Warming: The Greatest SCAM in History
dohboi wrote:
Gas, you're just too funny.
So exactly how deep does your hysterical conspiracy go? Do you think the melting of the Arctic is a hoax? Do you think the well attested, dramatic increase in extreme weather events (long predicted by GW models) is a made up? Do you think every major, established scientific body in the world sat down one day and decided to pull the wool over everyones collective eyes?
I'm really curious to know just how extremely...blinkered you are.
I also find it completely adorable how deniers are always the first to jump up and down at any extreme weather event--whether its bizarrely extreme flooding its the US Midwest, or when tens of thousands of people die from bizarrely extreme heatwaves in Europe, or when hundred of thousands of people die in a monstrous cylcone in Myanmar--and point out that no one weather event can be pinned conclusively on GW.
But one slightly cool day in Britain proves conclusively to our wise gasbag that the whole GW thing is bunk.
How completely endearing.
1 Extreme flooding in US midwest - Also happened in (I think) 1986. & countless times before. Nothing new there.
2. Yes, the climate is changing, then again it allways has. Cool to ice age, warms up etc. Look at your history books, River Thames in London froze solid in AD1063 & 1515, yet the Romans grew vines there AD 60 - a bit of change there.
3. Yes, The Artic is melting, Yes, the amount of CO2 & other shite we incessantly pump into the atmosphere can't be helping, but there are other, larger sources of CO2, the oceans, volcanoes, etc.
I remain to be convinced its ALL or even SUBSTANTIALLY due to mankind's output.
4. Yes, we have curious weather, the UK is the world centre of curious weather. Last year summer was a complete washout in the UK, this year, up to now, little rain, but its not really got warm AT ALL this year. You MIGHT attribute it to GW, I attribute it to the natural change going on.
5. I'm certainly not blinkered, I look around, at this site, general news, lots of other sites etc. I, however see alot of green save the planet crap about.
6. Lastly, I'm an Engineer in the UK gas industry, since leaving school in 1969. I KNOW (as well as most peak oilers) what the problems are, so does the Government(s), so does the Industry, and it AIN'T about melting ice.
Gasmon _________________ Been there, Done that, Bought the tee-shirt
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