Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2004 11:52 am Post subject: Back 2 the stone age
Peak Oil will happen - the question that interests me is what will the landing and post-peak be like? I was happily envisaging loads of alternative energy, when a scientist friend of mine pointed out a simple fact - even these need oil. They require oil to build them, service them, lubricate the mechanical bits and to replace them.
I realised then that we really are in for a VERY bumpy ride.
Fortunately my cave and supply of weapons does not need much oil. Woe betide the rest of you if you venture near my cave though...
Joined: Jun 21, 2004 Posts: 413 Location: Massachusetts
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2004 1:54 pm Post subject:
No one is going to go near your cave when they can go to my Ewok Village 2000. _________________ Vision without action is a dream, action without vision is a nightmare.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1647 Location: Davis, California
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2004 5:39 pm Post subject:
We make hte mistake (even the best of us) to assume that oil will run out. We will have a slow trickling of oil even in 2050 and probably beyond.
What we won't have after the peak will be the ability to constantly sustain growth and subsidize energy intensive projects. Bringing life down to a sustainable level with the environment does not mean we have to throw away all technology. Much of the techno-trash that exists right now would have to go, but many valid machines will still be around. Plus with traveling becoming more expensive, I forsee information technologies having a field day with the new niches that will open up. We won't go back to the stone age. We won't have a growth obsessed economy and a consumerism population. _________________ Joseph Stalin "It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. "
Joined: Jun 21, 2004 Posts: 413 Location: Massachusetts
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2004 7:11 pm Post subject:
The issue isn't whether or not oil will run out, the issue is about running out of cheap, easily accessible oil.
What we won't have after the peak is food, medical supplies, gas and other necessities. Dunno, but sounds like the stone age to me. _________________ Vision without action is a dream, action without vision is a nightmare.
Joined: Oct 10, 2004 Posts: 476 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2004 8:46 pm Post subject:
With the exception of food, none of those existed in 1800, 1700, 1600, 1500, 1400 and on and on. According to you, the Stone Age FINALLY ended in the late 19th century. Oh, and all those tribes in Africa and Asia are uncivilized.
When does food all of the sudden disappear after peak oil? If your body can digest and exract nutrients from it, then it is food. Is a Kit-Kat bar food, but a fresh fish not? Does all the metal just disappear after peak oil?
I need a reality check? _________________ "Abortion doctors aren't baby killers. They're life un-ruiners"
Joined: Oct 10, 2004 Posts: 476 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2004 9:00 pm Post subject:
Alright then, but those Masai and Tibetan people will be pretty upset when I tell them they are bunch of uncivilized, savage cavemen. Are you sure you don't want to take that statement back? I have them on the phone right now. _________________ "Abortion doctors aren't baby killers. They're life un-ruiners"
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1647 Location: Davis, California
Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2004 12:22 am Post subject:
Perhaps in a worst case scenario (all out nuclear war, with heapings of chemical and biological exchanges as well) we would go back to the stone age.
As I said in my post, the slowing and eventually depletion of oil will force us to rethink our economic policies and the sustainability of modern society (I HOPE!). In 50-70 years, assuming policy reforms and the worst of the oil shocks are over with, I do forsee a fairly technologically advanced civilization. It won't resemble our current culture in nearly any way, other than we will still use technology. Of course, I am an optimist after all of this. It most certainly won't be in the US as we currently know it. But perhaps in China/Russia/Middle East (assuming they aren't glassed in some way), with readily available sources of energy, a sustainable and productive society can emerge.
We aren't going back to the stone age, unless my worst case scenario erupts. We are going to lose our current style of economics and social policies though. And following so, a fairly traumatic die-off will occur (75-90% my estimates). But I don't see the stone age coming into play. _________________ Joseph Stalin "It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. "
Joined: Oct 10, 2004 Posts: 476 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2004 12:56 am Post subject:
Quote:
We aren't going back to the stone age, unless my worst case scenario erupts. We are going to lose our current style of economics and social policies though. And following so, a fairly traumatic die-off will occur (75-90% my estimates). But I don't see the stone age coming into play.
With a 75-90%, traumatic, involuntary die-off, I'd sure as hell say that could result in some kind of Stone Age type of living. 5 billion plus don't die that fast w/o consequences. When do have the time, and where do you find the resources to teach the kids how to build a "technologically advanced" civilization? _________________ "Abortion doctors aren't baby killers. They're life un-ruiners"
If we play woth the thought of 75-90% of the world's population dying as a result of peak oil, I don't hink we would return to the stone age. The consequenses of peak oil is population decrease, because of machine failure and so on. There's no reason we couldn't send people to Mars, surf the Internet (where power isn't dependant on oil, which is in a lot of places. Faroe Islands combined electricity production is only two thirds oilbased, and could easily be reduced even more), grow food biodynamically and so on. When we're only 500 million left, we CAN produce food enough, we can drive around in cars that can run on plant oil etc.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1647 Location: Davis, California
Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2004 8:21 am Post subject:
Yes, exactly. Brandy has it.
We aren't starting from square one. We have the knowledge for creating a sustainable society. We have all the technology necessary for a sustainable society. What we don't have is a sustainable society because of the indoctrination of growth and profit. However, once major fossil fuels peak, I think there will be a major realignment towards a sustainable and steady-state economic society.
No doubt there will be turmoil and strife thoughout the world. But, just maybe, if there are sufficient intelligant people left after the crash, and some sort of dystopian 1984 doesn't erupt, then the possibilities for a sustainable and technological society exist.
This is our chance to be the greatest generation or the generation that squandered everything. _________________ Joseph Stalin "It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. "
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